Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Rupee shackled in a range

Rupee shackled in a range

The Indian rupee has been stuck in a sideways range between 59.6 and 60.4 for more than two weeks. As the general elections kicked off last week, the currency weakened from its high of 59.78 on Monday to 60.34 on Friday before closing at 60.17, down 0.15 per cent for the week.
Weak macro-economic data releases in the past week could keep the rupee under pressure. The trade deficit for March hit a five-month high of $10.5 billion and exports declined 3.15 per cent year-on-year.
However, gold import curbs have narrowed the deficit for this fiscal to $138.59 billion from $190.33 billion. In addition, the index of industrial production for February fell 1.9 per cent after a 0.8 per cent rise in January.
Following these weak data releases, the market would be keenly watching the inflation data due for release in this truncated week, which has just three trading days.
Both consumer price and wholesale price inflation data are due for release on Tuesday. There is some mild good news for currency traders. SEBI has reduced the margin requirement for dollar-rupee contracts with effect from April 15. The margins were raised in July last year. Trading volumes are expected to pick up following the lower margin requirements. Though foreign institutional investors continue to buy Indian equities, the outflows from debt limit the rupee’s strength. FIIs bought $409 million in equity while selling $386 million of debt last week.
Dollar index
The dollar index tumbled 1.2 per cent last week as the euro and yen strengthened sharply. The index has crucial support at 79, which if broken could turn the outlook bearish for a fall to 77. On the other hand, a reversal from 79 would keep the 79-81.5 sideways range intact. The rupee is likely to hover in a range between 59.6 and 60.4 in the shortterm. The 21-day moving average at 60.43 is a key short-term support.
Dollar-rupee outlook
The rupee could weaken to test this level while it remains below 60. A decline below 60.43 could drag the currency lower to 60.7 in the short-term. However, 60.7 is a strong support that can limit the short-term weakness. A close above 60 is needed for the short-term bias to turn positive and test 59.6 again. A breach of 59.6 would see the rupee strengthen to 59.45 and 59.3. The medium-term outlook is bullish for the rupee to test 59 and even 58.
However, an intermediate fall to 61 and 62, key medium-term supports, cannot be ruled out.

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE WHAT YOU THINK IN 2015

Today's pattern is often called a Megaphone Pattern and it is showing up on this 20 year chart of the DOW.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE WHAT YOU THINK IN 2015
WHAT YOU THINK IN 2015 OR 2016 ? 17000 OR 5900

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Time to sell gold says BofA











                                                                                  Gold is rolling over. The impulsive intra-day decline from today’s 1345 high says that the trend has turned ahead of the confluence of long term resistance between 1350/1367. With the ADX at trend ending extremes, and daily momentum posting bearish divergences, target 1270, potentially long term triangle support at 1185.
Sell Gold at 1337, risking 1346, target 1270, potentially 1185

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Technical Analysis MCX Metals And Energy.

Gold (Rs 29,265) 

The MCX Gold futures contract for 10 gram traded in a narrow range between Rs 28,865 and Rs 29,314 last week. Technically, the contract is holding well above its 200-day moving average support at Rs 28,799. This keeps the short-term bullish outlook intact. Traders can hold on to their long positions and retain the stop-loss at Rs 28,300. A rally to Rs 31,000 looks likely in the coming weeks. The significant resistances are at Rs 29,790 and Rs 29,851. On the downside, the 200-day moving average is the immediate support level. Below this Rs 28,300 is the next significant support. In the medium-term, the contract can range between Rs 28,300 and Rs 31,000. A break out of this range will decide the trend thereafter.
Copper (Rs 458)
After the sharp fall a week before, the 55-day moving average support at Rs 454 a kg has lent some relief to the MCX Copper contract. The immediate outlook is mixed. The 21-day moving average resistance at Rs 463 and the support at Rs 454 are important levels to watch out for. Traders can wait for the contract to breakthrough either levels. If the contract declines below Rs 454, traders can go short with a stop-loss at Rs 459. Target on the downside is Rs 440. If the contract breaches Rs 463, traders can initiate long positions with a stop-loss at Rs 456. Target on the upside is Rs 475.
Crude Oil (Rs 5,777)
The MCX Crude Oil contract has bounced back from the low of Rs 5,640/barrel last week. Immediate support is at Rs 5,700. As long as the contract trades above this support, it can rise to Rs 5,950 or Rs 6,000 in the coming weeks. However, the trend is down and an immediate breach of Rs 6,000 looks less probable. Traders can take short position near Rs 5,950 with a stop-loss at Rs 6,150. In the medium-term, Rs 5,400-5,350 is the key support zone which can halt the downtrend. A reversal from this support zone can take the contract to Rs 8,000 in the long-term.
Natural gas (Rs 266)
The MCX Natural gas contract rose sharply to a high of Rs 276.7 for a million British thermal unit last week. This was in contrast to our view of a fall to Rs 240 . The immediate outlook is not clear. Traders can avoid taking positions until a clear signal emerges. The contract can remain range-bound between Rs 250 and Rs 280 for some time. A strong break above Rs 280 is required to signal a bullish outlook . Target above Rs 280 is Rs 350. But as long as the contract trades below Rs 280, a fall to Rs 220 is possible in the medium-term. Such a fall will be a good buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Zinc (Rs 128)
After two weeks of consecutive fall, the MCX Zinc contract moved up last week. But the contract faces immediate resistance at Rs 129. Only a strong break of this resistance will turn the outlook positive. Failure to breach Rs 129 and a subsequent reversal will be bearish for the contract. In such a scenario, short positions can be initiated with a stop-loss at Rs 132. The contract can fall to Rs 121 initially and then to Rs 115. A reversal from Rs 115 can avoid a further fall to Rs 105. The contract will then move in a sideways range between Rs 115 and Rs 135 in the short-term.

Technical Analysis MCX Metals And Energy.

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Technical Analysis MCX Metals And Energy.

Technical Analysis MCX Metals And Energy.

Gold (Rs 29,033)

Pulling back from their high of Rs 29,276 per 10 grams, MCX Gold futures have found support at the 200-day moving average, currently at Rs 28,743. The short-term outlook is bullish and a rise to Rs 31,000 looks likely in coming weeks. Intermediate resistances are seen at Rs 29,570 and Rs 29,970. A breach of these resistances will clear the way for upward movement to Rs 31,000. The 200-day moving average is the immediate support, a breach of which could drag the contract below Rs 28,350. Traders can go long, with stop-loss at Rs 28,300. The key medium-term resistance is at Rs 31,000 and the contract needs to move past this level for the outlook to turn bullish. Inability to do so would see the contract move in a broad sideways range between Rs 28,000 and Rs 31,000.

Silver (Rs 44,824)
MCX silver contracts have been trading in a narrow range between Rs 43,500 to Rs 45,850 per kg in the last few days. A breakout from this range will decide the short-term trend. A strong break above Rs 45,850 will be bullish and the contract could move toward a target of Rs 47,850. On the other hand, a fall below Rs 43,500 will be bearish and could see the contract decline to Rs 42,000. Short-term traders can wait for a breakout before taking positions In the medium-term, Rs 41,500 and Rs 40,000 are the crucial supports.
Copper (Rs 457.45)
Copper futures on the MCX have fallen for the second consecutive week, cutting short an uptrend from their November low of Rs 428.85 per kg. The expected rally to Rs 510 looks less probable in the near-term. Immediate support is at Rs 453. Inability to bounce back from this support in the coming week will keep the contract under pressure. A break below Rs 453 could pull the contract below Rs 438. If the contract breaches Rs 453, short-term traders can go short with stop-loss at Rs 465. A strong close above Rs 470 will pave the way for a rally to Rs 510.
Crude oil (Rs 5,704)
MCX Crude Oil futures extended their fall for the second consecutive week and the outlook remains bearish. Traders can accumulate short positions with revised stop-loss at Rs 6,150 per barrel. A fall to Rs 5,500 and Rs 5,350 is more likely now. Immediate resistance is at Rs 5,750. Even if the contract moves past this level, it will face strong resistance at Rs 5,975. In the medium-term, Rs 5,350-5,400 is a strong support zone that may not be broken easily. There is probability of a reversal from this zone, which could take the contract higher to Rs 8,000 in the long-term.
Natural gas (Rs 251.2)
The MCX Natural Gas contract tumbled 8 per cent last week. Technically, a strong reversal has happened from the Rs 275-280 resistance zone, which is the upper end of the bull channel. Consequently, it is likely the contract will extend its fall to Rs 240 per million British thermal units in future. A break below Rs 240 will take the contract lower to Rs 220, which is the bull channel support. Resistances are seen at Rs 260 and Rs 265. Upward movement in the coming week will be an opportunity to assume short-positions, with stop-loss at Rs 272.

Sunday, January 5, 2014

Technical Analysis MCX Metals And Energy.

Copper (Rs 465.5)
The MCX copper futures contract is not gaining momentum to rise above Rs 474. Supports are at Rs 462 and at Rs 459 which may be tested in the coming week. The contract can consolidate between Rs 459 and Rs 474 for some time. Nevertheless, the outlook is bullish as long as the contract trades above Rs 459. Declines to Rs 462 and Rs 459 can be considered for going long with a stop-loss at Rs 454. A rally to Rs 510 looks likely in the coming weeks. For the medium-term, Rs 510 is a key resistance level which can trigger a reversal.
Crude oil (Rs 5,897)
A steep fall in the global crude oil prices has led to a sharp decline in the MCX crude oil futures contract last week. Technically, last week’s reversal has happened just below the 21-week moving average, at Rs 6,330. This signals the end of the corrective rally witnessed in December. The overall downtrend remains intact and an immediate fall to the support at Rs 5,750 looks likely now. A breach of this support can drag the contract lower to Rs 5,500. Resistance is at Rs 6,100. Traders can go short now and accumulate more on rallies to Rs 6,100 with a stop-loss at Rs 6,350. For the medium-term, Rs 5,500 is a strong support and the contract can reverse higher again from this level.
Natural gas (Rs 273.2)
The MCX natural gas contract is trading sideways between Rs 263 and Rs 281 in the past three weeks. As mentioned last week, the contract has to rise past Rs 281.6, the January 2010 high, to extend the current uptrend. Failure to breach Rs 281.6 can either keep the contract range-bound between Rs 263 and Rs 281, or can trigger a corrective fall to Rs 255 and Rs 245. Traders can avoid any fresh positions until a clear signal emerges. The medium-term trend is up, with strong supports at Rs 240 and Rs 220.
Zinc (Rs 126.9)
The MCX zinc futures contract has reversed sharply lower just below the key medium-term resistance at Rs 137. Immediate support is at Rs 126.5. If the contract declines below Rs 126.5, traders can go short with a stop-loss at Rs 129.5. The target on the downside will be Rs 121. If the contract extends the fall below Rs 121, it can touch Rs 117. Overall last week’s reversal is turning the outlook bearish. The contract has to breach Rs 137 decisively to turn the sentiment positive. Else it can remain in a broad sideways range between Rs 115 and Rs 137 in the coming months. Within this range, the bias is bearish, and the contract can breach Rs 115 and fall to Rs 105.
Lead (Rs 134.9)
The MCX lead contract has come off sharply from its high of Rs 144.65 in the last two weeks. A strong rise and a decisive close above Rs 140 is now required to turn the short-term outlook positive. Below Rs 140, the contract can fall to Rs 130 in the coming weeks. Short-term traders can take short position near Rs 140 with a strict stop-loss at Rs 142. For the medium-term, Rs 130 will be a key support level to watch out for. This level will set the medium-term trend.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Technicals MCX Metals And Energy.

Technicals MCX Metals And Energy.

Gold (Rs 28,564)

The year-end holiday season has put the market in silent mode. The MCX gold futures contract stayed flat after declining below its 200-day moving average. For the short-term, Rs 28,200 will be an important support. Failure to decline below this level in the coming weeks can keep the contract in a sideways range between Rs 28,200 and Rs 31,000. Traders with a high risk appetite can go long with a tight stop-loss at Rs 27,950. However, the medium-term trend is down. Rally to Rs 31,000 will be a good opportunity to enter into fresh short positions. The contract can fall to Rs 25,500 in the medium-term. Only a strong rise above Rs 31,000 will turn the outlook bullish.
Silver (Rs 45,154)
The MCX silver contract is trading flat. Its 200-day moving average resistance is currently at Rs 45,680. A break above this resistance can take the contract to Rs 48,500 in the coming weeks. On the other hand, if the contract declines below Rs 43,500, it can fall to Rs 41,000. Traders have to wait for a breakout on either side of Rs 43,500-45,680 to trade on the contract. For the medium-term, Rs 40,000 will be a crucial support. The probability of the contract testing this support remains high till price is below Rs 48,500.
Copper (Rs 468.2)
The MCX copper contract has risen sharply as indicated last week. The short-term bullish outlook remains intact. But a dip to Rs 463-460 cannot be ruled out. Supports are at Rs 462 and at Rs 455. Traders can take fresh long positions now and accumulate more longs on dips to Rs 462 and Rs 455.
Intermediate resistance is at Rs 470. A breach of this resistance will open doors for a rise to Rs 510 in the coming weeks. For the medium-term, Rs 510 is a key resistance level which can halt the current rally. A reversal from here can see the contract declining again.
Crude oil (Rs 6,261)
The MCX crude oil contract closed the week making moderate gains. Traders can hold their long positions taken near Rs 6,100 and retain the stop-loss at Rs 6,040. Supports are at Rs 6,100 and Rs 6,000. But caution is required as the contract is nearing its crucial 21-week moving average resistance at Rs 6,354. Exit longs if there is a reversal after hitting this resistance.
A break above Rs 6,354 can, however, take the contract to Rs 6,500. Failure to breach Rs 6,500 will keep the medium-term downtrend intact and the contract can fall to Rs 5,500. But if the contract manages to break above Rs 6,500 decisively, then it will signal a trend reversal.
Natural gas (Rs 273.4)
The MCX natural gas contract was oscillating between Rs 271 and Rs 281 last week. The previous high of Rs 281.6 recorded in January 2010 will be an important resistance level to watch. Failure to breach this level can take it down to Rs 255 in the coming weeks.
However, if it breaks above Rs 281.6, the contract can target Rs 310 in the short-term. The medium-term trend is up with strong supports are at Rs 240 and Rs 220.

Monday, December 16, 2013

Technicals: Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude oil, Natural gas.

Technicals: Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude oil, Natural gas.

Gold (Rs 29,432)

A huge gap-down opening last week keeps the bearish outlook intact for the MCX gold futures contract. There is a strong resistance in Rs 29,880-30,500 zone. Rally to this will be a good opportunity for entering short-positions with a stop-loss at Rs 30,650. However, traders have to be cautious as the market could turn volatile after the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.
The 200-day moving average at Rs 28,583 will be a crucial support level. Declines below this support can take the price lower to Rs 25,500 over the medium-term. If the contract manages to sustain above the 200-day moving average support, then sideways movement between Rs 28,500 and Rs 30,500 is possible for the next few weeks.
Silver (Rs 44,776)
The corrective rally in the MCX silver contract from the low of Rs 42,418 found resistance at the 200-day moving average (currently at Rs 45,821) last week. The outlook remains bearish.
Traders can continue to hold on to their short positions with a revised stop-loss at Rs 46,300. The contract can fall to Rs 42,400 immediately and then to Rs 41,400. For the medium-term, Rs 41,400 and Rs 40,000 are the crucial support levels which might not be broken in a hurry.
Copper (Rs 461.7)
The MCX copper contract surged 3.5 per cent last week and the outlook has turned bullish. Significant supports are at Rs 456.5 and Rs 451.
Traders can go long now and accumulate on dips to Rs 455 with a stop-loss at Rs 448.
The contract can target Rs 470 immediately and then Rs 510.
The contract’s strong rise from the November low of Rs 428.85 is signalling a reversal of the downtrend that started in September. For the medium-term, Rs 510 will be a critical resistance level for the contract.
Crude oil (Rs 6,034)
The MCX crude oil contract has been continuing its consolidation in Rs 5,750-6,100 range for the seventh consecutive week within its overall downtrend. Traders have to wait for a breakout of this range to enter a trade.
A break above Rs 6,100 can take the contract higher to Rs 6,380. On the other hand, decline below Rs 5,750 can drag the price lower to Rs 5,680 immediately and to Rs 5,500 thereafter.
In the short-term, the probability of the contract breaching Rs 6,100 and moving to Rs 6,380 is higher. However, the medium-term trend is down and a fall to Rs 5,500 looks more likely.
Natural gas (Rs 272.5)
The MCX natural gas contract closed at its medium-term bull channel resistance last week. The price action in the coming week will be crucial to know the direction in the coming weeks. Key resistances are at Rs 276 and at Rs 282.
However, since the contract has risen consistently in the last six weeks, the probability is high for a corrective pull back. Immediate support is at Rs 270. Decline below this support can take the contract lower to Rs 262 and Rs 252. Short-term traders with high risk appetite can go short if the contract declines below Rs 270 with a stop-loss at Rs 277.

Monday, December 9, 2013

Technicals: Copper, Natural Gas, Nickel, Zinc, Lead

Technicals: Copper, Natural Gas, Nickel, Zinc, Lead
Copper (Rs 446.3)
MCX copper last week could not gain momentum to breach Rs 450 after its initial rise. The outlook is bearish. Immediate resistance is at Rs 453 and Rs 462. Short-term traders can sell near Rs 450 and accumulate if the contract extends its rise further to Rs 460. Stop-loss can be kept at Rs 465. Immediate support is at Rs 440. Decline below Rs 440 can take the contract lower to Rs 430 where the short-term traders can book profit. The medium-term outlook is also bearish and investors with a medium-term view can hold the short position for a fall to Rs 410.
Natural gas (Rs 253.4)
The MCX natural gas futures contract extended its rally further by 2.7 per cent last week. Although the contract has given up some of its gains, the outlook remains bullish. Immediate support is at Rs 248 and followed by a strong support at Rs 240. Hold on to the long position and accumulate more longs if the contract dips to Rs 248 and Rs 240. Retain the stop-loss at Rs 225 for a target of Rs 270. The contract is moving in a bull channel. The channel resistance at Rs 272 can halt the rally in the contract and can turn the price lower in the medium-term.
Nickel (Rs 844.7)
The MCX nickel contract failed to breach its 200-day moving average (currently at Rs 857) resistance last week. The contract has come off from the high of Rs 862.60 to close on a weaker note last week. The short-term outlook is bearish with significant resistances at Rs 857 and Rs 862. Traders can go short now and accumulate on rallies to Rs 855-860. Stop-loss can be kept at Rs 868 for a target of Rs 810. The medium-term trend is also down as long as the contract trades below Rs 900. Key support is at Rs 800, decline below which can drag the price lower to Rs 730 over the medium-term.
Zinc (Rs 115.75)
The 21-week moving average, currently at Rs 117.7 has restricted the MCX zinc contract from moving up for the second consecutive week. An intra-week bounce to Rs 117 in the coming week will be a good opportunity for taking short positions with a stop-loss at Rs 118.2. Though there is a support near Rs 114, the contract may fall to Rs 112 in the coming weeks where profits can be booked. The short-term view will remain bearish as long as the contract trades below Rs 121 for a fall to Rs 108. However, the medium-term trend is up with a strong support at Rs 105. Some fresh buying here can reverse the short-term downtrend.
Lead (Rs 127.4)
The MCX lead futures contract is coming down over the last four weeks. The outlook is bearish with resistances at Rs 129 and Rs 132. Rally to these resistances if seen in the coming week will be a good opportunity to enter short position with a stop-loss at Rs 133. Although the 200-day moving average support is near Rs 125, the contract looks weak for a fall to Rs 118 in the short-term. However, the medium-term outlook is bullish with a strong trend support near Rs 115.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Technical Analysis - MCX Copper, NG, Gold, Silver And Crude Oil.

Technical Analysis - MCX Copper, NG, Gold, Silver And Crude Oil.
Gold (Rs 30,236)
The MCX gold futures contract has been stuck in a narrow range between Rs 29,600 and Rs 30,500 all through November. Traders have to wait for a breakout of this range to get clear idea on the short-term trend and take positions accordingly. The target on a breach above Rs 30,500 will be Rs 31,500 while a decline below Rs 29,600 can target Rs 28,560. The medium-term outlook will be bearish as long as the contract trades below Rs 31,500. Decline below the significant 200-day moving average support, currently at Rs 28,562, will push the contract lower to Rs 25,400.
Silver (Rs 44,274)
The MCX silver contract has been losing momentum in its current downtrend. Last week’s fall was accompanied by low volumes which reflect a high possibility for a corrective rally. But since the trend is down, traders can go short now and go shorting it further on rallies to Rs 46,000-46,500 with a stop-loss at Rs 47,450. The target on the downside is Rs 41,400. Key short-term resistances are at Rs 46,270 and Rs 46,585. For the medium-term, Rs 40,000 will be a critical support level. Whether this support holds or gets broken will set the trend for the medium-term.
Copper (Rs 444.4)
The MCX copper has been range-bound moving between Rs 440-447 in the last week. Traders can stay back until clear signals emerge. The trend, however, is down and the contract has significant resistance at Rs 455. Fresh shortposition can be initiated if a rise from current level fails to breach Rs 455. Stop-loss can be kept at Rs 465. However, if the contract declines below Rs 440 immediately, go short with a stop-loss at Rs 447. The target for both cases mentioned above will be Rs 430. The medium-term trend in the contract is also down capable of falling to Rs 410 as long as it trades below Rs 460.
Crude oil (Rs 5,839)
The MCX crude oil contract has been consolidating sideways for the last five weeks between Rs 5,750 and Rs 6,100 within the overall downtrend. Traders have to wait for a breakout of this range to take a position. However, the short-term trend is down. Short positions can be initiated on a decline below Rs 5,750 with a stop-loss at Rs 6,150. The immediate near-term target will be Rs 5,650 and the short-term target will be Rs 5,400. On the other hand, if an immediate decline below Rs 5,750 gets averted and the contract breaches Rs 6,100, then a corrective rally to test the resistances at Rs 6,250 and Rs 6,400 is possible. In that case, traders can wait to enter short position at higher levels near Rs 6,400.
Natural gas (Rs 246.7)
The MCX natural gas has given a bullish breakout of its Rs 210-240 range and has risen sharply by 4.6 per cent last week. The outlook is bullish. Traders can initiate long positions at current levels and accumulate more long position on declines to Rs 240-235. Stop-loss can be kept at Rs 225 for a target of Rs 270. The contract has been moving in a bull channel. Last week’s breakout above Rs 240 has opened the doors for a fresh rally to the upper end of this channel. The channel resistance at Rs 270 will now be a key medium-term resistance for the contract in the coming weeks. There is a possibility for the price to turn down from this resistance.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Technical Analysis - MCX Copper, Nickel, Lead, Crude Oil & Natural Gas.

Technical Analysis - MCX Copper, Nickel, Lead, Crude Oil & Natural Gas.


Copper (Rs 444)

The MCX copper declined below Rs 440 last week. But taking support from the 200-day moving average (currently at Rs 428.8), it jumped back. Now, it is close to the resistance zone of Rs 448-457. If the contract can sustain above Rs 440, a rise to test this resistance zone looks possible, but it may not breach Rs 457. On the other hand, a decline below Rs 440 can take the price lower to test the 200-day moving average again.
The medium-term outlook is bearish for a fall to Rs 400. A strong break below the support at Rs 428 can trigger this fall. Key resistances are at Rs 460 and Rs 470
Crude oil (Rs 5,992)
The MCX crude oil contract has risen well from the low of Rs 5,752 last week. The contract looks to be gearing up for a corrective rally. Immediate support is at Rs 5,900. The contract can rise to Rs 6,250 in the coming week on breach of the intermediate resistance at Rs 6,100. An eventual break above Rs 6,250 can take the price further higher to Rs 6,550. For the medium-term, Rs 6,600 will be key resistance level. Whether this resistance holds or gets broken during this corrective rally will then decide the trend.
Natural gas (Rs 235)
The MCX natural gas contract is heading towards the upper end of its short-term sideways range of Rs 210-240. Failure to breach Rs 240 can result in a decline to Rs 220 and the contract can retain this range for the next few weeks. However, the medium-term outlook is bullish as the contract has been moving in a bull channel for more than a year. The channel support is at Rs 200. As such, declines to the Rs 210-200 zone can attract fresh buying interest in the market. A bullish breakout above Rs 240 can take the price higher to Rs 270.
Nickel (Rs 844)
After the sharp fall below the 200-day moving average on Monday, the MCX nickel contract stayed flat between Rs 840 and Rs 855 for the rest of the week. The short-term outlook is bearish with the 200-day moving average resistance at Rs 861. Although there is support at Rs 840, the contract looks vulnerable to break this support and decline to Rs 800. The medium-term outlook is also bearish as long as the contract trades below the key resistance at Rs 900. The medium-term target will be Rs 740 on a breach of the key support at Rs 800.
Lead (Rs 131)
The MCX lead contract recovered very well from the intra-week low of Rs 127.6 to close flat for the week. Immediate resistance is at Rs 133, a breach of which can take the price further higher to Rs 136 for the short-term. Short-term support is at Rs 128 and at Rs 125. However, the medium-term outlook is bearish. A strong break above the key resistance at Rs 136 is required to turn the outlook positive. While below this resistance, the contract can decline to Rs 115 in the medium-term. As such, fresh selling can emerge on the short-term rallies to Rs 136.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Technical Analysis - MCX Copper, NG, Gold, Silver And Crude Oil.

Technical Analysis - MCX Copper, NG, Gold, Silver And Crude Oil.
The MCX gold futures contract is relatively more bullish in the short-term when compared with other commodities. Copper looks vulnerable while silver, crude oil and natural gas are testing their significant 200-day moving average supports.
Gold (Rs 30,332)
The MCX gold futures contract is bullish in the short-term. There is an inverted head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart with the right shoulder being formed now. Support is at Rs 29,700 and the contract can rise to Rs 31,500 in the short-term. A strong weekly close above Rs 31,500 will confirm the pattern and turn the medium-term outlook also bullish for the targets of Rs 33,200 and Rs 34,000. On the other hand, if the contract falls below the immediate support Rs 29,700, then the price can decline to test the 200-day moving average support near Rs 28,500. But the probability of the price declining below Rs 29,700 immediately is very low.
Silver (Rs 46,741)
The MCX silver contract remains weak. Although the 200-day moving average support is close, at Rs 46,701, failure in the last two weeks to breach the resistance at Rs 49,000 denotes weakness. Prices can decline to Rs 45,500 in near future. Breach of Rs 45,500 can take the contract further lower to Rs 44,500. On the other hand, a bounce from Rs 46,701 can result in the metal testing the Rs 49,000 resistance once again.
The medium-term outlook is also bearish. The price can decline to Rs 41,500 over this time period. Key resistance is at Rs 53,000.
Copper (Rs 441)
The MCX copper contract continued consolidating between Rs 440 and Rs 460 for the sixth consecutive week. Within this range, the contract has dropped sharply last week to close near the lower end of this range. The bias is bearish. It can decline below Rs 440 and fall to Rs 425. Failure to breach Rs 440 can keep the contract in this range for some more time.
The medium-term outlook is bearish. Strong resistance is at Rs 470 and the price can decline to Rs 400-390. Only a strong rise above Rs 470 will turn the outlook positive.
Crude oil (Rs 5,903)
Last week, the MCX crude oil contract failed to extend its corrective rally beyond its resistance at Rs 6,100. The contract looks vulnerable to decline below its Rs 5,850 support targeting Rs 5,650 in the short-term. However, if the support at Rs 5,850 holds, then there is a possibility of a rally once again to Rs 6,100 or even Rs 6,230.
The medium-term outlook remains bearish as long as the contract trades below the Rs 6,600. A decline to Rs 5,400 is possible over this time period.
Natural gas (Rs 229)
The 200-day moving average support near Rs 223 has held very well last week. The MCX natural gas contract has bounced back from this support to close higher by a per cent for the week. For the short-term, the contract can continue to consolidate sideways between Rs 210 and Rs 240. Within this range, the contract can rise to Rs 235-240 in the coming week.
However, the medium-term outlook is bullish. The contract has been moving in a bull channel for more than a year. The channel support is near Rs 200 and a decline to this support will provide a good buying opportunity. The contract can target Rs 270 over this time period.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Technical Analysis - MCX Copper, NG, Zinc, Nickel And Crude Oil.

Technical Analysis - MCX Copper, NG, Zinc, Nickel And Crude Oil.

COPPER (RS 457)

MCX copper futures contract has retained its Rs 440-460 sideways move for the fifth consecutive week. A breakout on either side of this range will decide the next leg of move. However, last week’s price movement lends high probability for the contract to break above Rs 460 and move to Rs 470. Failure to do so can keep the contract range-bound between Rs 440 and Rs 460 for some more time.
However, the medium-term outlook is bearish. Key resistance is at Rs 470 which needs to be broken to turn the outlook positive. The contract can fall to Rs 410 and Rs 390 in the medium-term.


CRUDE OIL (RS 5,993)

The weakening of the rupee beyond 62 against the dollar saw the MCX crude oil contract ending its nine-week losing streak. Technically, the price has risen back above the significant 200-day moving average support. There is high probability for a corrective rally now. As such fresh short positions can be avoided at the moment. Immediate resistance is at Rs 6,100. A break above this level can take the price higher to Rs 6,300-6,400 initially and even to Rs 6,600 in the short-term. Support lies in the Rs 5,900-5,880 region.
The medium-term outlook will remain bearish unless the contract breaks above Rs 6,600. The price can decline to Rs 5,500-5,400 in the medium-term.


NATURAL GAS (RS 227.1)

The MCX natural gas contract has taken support from near Rs 210 and has risen by 2.7 per cent last week. Immediate support lies in the region between Rs 220 and Rs 215. The contract can rise further to Rs 235-240 in the coming week. Significant resistance is at Rs 240 and a breach of this level will turn the outlook bullish. Failure to rise above Rs 240 could keep the contract in a sideways range between Rs 210 and Rs 240 in the short-term.
However, the medium-term outlook is bullish, and the contract can target Rs 270. Strong support is near Rs 200.


ZINC (RS 119.9)

The MCX zinc contract has risen by 5.6 per cent in the last few weeks after finding support near Rs 115. A rounding bottom pattern is visible on the daily candle chart. The immediate short-term outlook is positive with significant support in Rs 117-115 region. Resistance is at Rs 121 and a break above this level can take the price higher to Rs 125.2, which is a key resistance level.
A breakout on either side Rs 115-125 will decide the medium-term trend thereafter. However, failure to breach Rs 125.2 will have high probability to take the contract lower to Rs 104.


NICKEL (RS 882.8)

MCX nickel contract has failed to breach above Rs 900 decisively. The contract has closed lower by 2.8 per cent for the week. Technically, the 100-week moving average, currently near Rs 914, is restricting the upside. The short-term outlook will remain bearish, as long as the contract is below the Rs 900-915 resistance zone.
The price can decline to Rs 850-840 in the short-term. An eventual break below Rs 840 can take the contract lower to Rs 800.
For the medium-term, strong support is in the Rs 780-750 region. A fresh leg of up move from this support zone is possible. Target for the medium-term is in the range of Rs 950-1000 .

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Technicals: Gold (Rs 30,734), Silver (Rs 49,709), Crude Oil (Rs 6,045), Natural Gas (Rs 227.3), Copper (Rs 446.40)

Technicals: Gold (Rs 30,734), Silver (Rs 49,709), Crude Oil (Rs 6,045), Natural Gas (Rs 227.3), Copper (Rs 446.40)

Technicals: Gold (Rs 30,734), Silver (Rs 49,709), Crude Oil (Rs 6,045), Natural Gas (Rs 227.3), Copper (Rs 446.40)

The MCX gold futures contract has risen sharply by 8.3 per cent over the last two weeks. A 6.3-per cent recovery in the global gold price over the last two weeks following the weaker dollar has supported MCX futures contract price. The short-term outlook for the MCX gold futures contract is positive. Support is available at Rs 29,500 and the contract can rise further to test Rs 31,500-31,700 levels in the coming weeks. Important short-term resistances to be watched are Rs 30,900 and Rs 31,697. For the medium-term, Rs 32,500 is a crucial resistance level. Failure to breach this resistance will keep the price pressured to test Rs 25,500-25,000.
Silver (Rs 49,709)
The MCX silver is now witnessing a corrective rally and has risen six per cent in the last two weeks. Significant short-term supports are available at Rs 48,500 and at Rs 47,500. Above these supports, the corrective rally can extend further in the coming week targeting Rs 51,000-51,500 levels.
However, the medium-term outlook is bearish. Strong resistance is there in the broad Rs 52,000-53,000 region. The contract needs to breach the Rs 53,000 resistance decisively to turn the outlook bullish. Failure to break above Rs 53,000 will keep the medium-term bearish outlook intact for a fall to Rs 41,500-40,500 levels.
Copper (Rs 446.4)
MCX copper futures contract is stuck in a sideways range between Rs 440 and Rs 460. The price can continue to consolidate in this range for some more time. Within this range, the bias is bearish. The contract can break and fall below Rs 440 towards Rs 430-425 in the short-term. The medium-term outlook is also bearish with strong resistance at Rs 470. While below this resistance, the contract can fall to Rs 400-390 in the medium-term.
Crude oil (Rs 6,045)
The MCX crude oil futures contract is in a strong downtrend now. The contract has closed 2.4 per cent lower for the week, its eighth consecutive lower weekly close. Sharp fall in the global crude oil price is keeping the MCX futures contract under pressure. Immediate resistance is at Rs 6,100 and then significant resistances are at Rs 6,200 and at Rs 6,300. While below Rs 6,300, the contract can fall to test Rs 5,855 and Rs 5,835.
The medium-term outlook is also bearish and the contract can fall to Rs 5,500-5,400. Strong resistance is at Rs 6,600 which needs to be broken to reverse the current downtrend.
Natural gas (Rs 227.3)
The MCX natural gas contract has been trading sideways between Rs 215 and Rs 240 in the last few weeks. A breakout on either side of Rs 215-240 will decide the trend, going forward. Below Rs 240, the trend is bearish and the contract may slide further to Rs 210 and Rs 205 in the short-term.
However, the medium-term outlook is bullish. The contract is trading in a bull channel with strong support at Rs 200. A break below Rs 200 might not be very easy and the contract can rise higher to Rs 260-270 from this support level.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Lead, Zinc, Copper, Crude oil and Natural Gas. Technical Analysis MCX.

Lead, Zinc, Copper, Crude oil and Natural Gas. Technical Analysis MCX.


Lead, Zinc, Copper, Crude oil and Natural Gas. Technical Analysis MCX.

Copper (Rs 448.8): Failing to breach the resistance at Rs 460, the MCX contract reversed lower from the intra-week high of Rs 459.8. The contract can consolidate sideways in the range between Rs 440 and Rs 460 for some time. Within this range the bias is to see a bearish break and fall below Rs 440. This will take the contract lower to Rs 430 in the short-term.
The upside could be limited to Rs 470 if the contract breaks above Rs 460.
The medium-term outlook is also bearish. There is a strong resistance between Rs 460-470 that needs to be broken to reverse the bearish outlook. Below Rs 470, the contract is likely to fall to Rs 400-390 in the medium-term.
Crude oil (Rs 6,192): The intra-week bounce failed to breach the important resistance at Rs 6,300. The MCX crude oil has moved down from the high of Rs 6,348, to close lower for the seventh consecutive week. Below Rs 6,300, the short-term outlook is weak and it may test Rs 5,812 and Rs 5,855 levels which are the 200-day moving average and 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement support levels respectively. Even if the contract breaches the resistance at Rs 6,300, the upside will be limited to Rs 6,500.
The medium-term view is also bearish. Strong resistance is seen in Rs 6,500-6,600 zone. Below this resistance zone a fall to Rs 5,500-5,400 is possible in the medium-term.
Zinc (Rs 116.5): The MCX Zinc contract is consolidating sideways over the last few weeks. This sideways consolidation can continue for some more time and the price can remain in the Rs 113-120 range in the immediate short-term.
Within this range, the bias is towards a bearish trend and the contract can break below Rs 113 in the coming days. The immediate downside target below Rs 113 is Rs 110. An eventual break below Rs 110 can take the price lower to Rs 104.
For the medium-term, the contract has strong support near Rs 100. Above Rs 100, the medium-term outlook is bullish and the contract can trend upwards to test Rs 120-130 levels.
Natural gas (Rs 231.1): As predicted in this column last week, the MCX Natural Gas contract tested the resistance at Rs 240. It fell and closed flat for the week. Failure to breach above Rs 240 implies that the bearish outlook is intact for the short-term.
The contract can fall to Rs 220-210 in the coming weeks. However, the medium-term outlook is bullish as the contract remains in a bull channel. The channel support is near Rs 200 which can limit the downside. A fresh upmove from this support can take the price higher to Rs 260-270.
Lead (Rs 132.2): The sharp fall from the August peak at Rs 155.4, is taking support near Rs 125 over the last couple of weeks. Above Rs 125, the MCX Lead contract can see a corrective rally towards Rs 140-143 in the short-term.
However, a rise above Rs 143 might be difficult. On the other hand, if the price falls below Rs 125, the possibility of which is less at least in the immediate near term, then the contract can fall lower to Rs 120.
The medium-term outlook is bullish. Strong support is at Rs 110-100 levels. The contract may test this support zone, but a fall below Rs 100 is less likely. The contract can take support at this level and move to Rs 160 in the medium-term.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude oil and Natural Gas. Technical Analysis MCX.


Gold (Rs 28,365)
The MCX gold contract fell sharply by 3.8 per cent last week. The contract has closed below the significant 200-day moving average which is currently at Rs 28,515. The short-term outlook remains weak and the contract can fall further to test its next important support at Rs 27,500. There is a high probability for this support to hold, and the contract can see a temporary relief rally to Rs 29,500. But, if Rs 27,500 is broken, then the contract can decline further to Rs 25,500. For the medium-term, Rs 29,500-30,500 is a strong resistance zone. However, a fall to Rs 25,500-25,000 looks more likely.
Silver (Rs 46,891)
The MCX silver contract fell 2.8 per cent last week. The immediate outlook is bearish, and the contract can fall to Rs 45,500-44,500. After finding support at this level, the contract can see a corrective rally to Rs 48,500. Short-term resistances are at Rs 48,500 and Rs 50,000. The medium-term outlook is also bearish with strong resistance in the Rs 52,000-53,000 region and the contract can fall to Rs 41,500-40,500 in the medium-term.
Copper (Rs 445.7)
As predicted in this column last week, the MCX copper contract has broken its Rs 450-470 range on the downside, thereby giving way for a further fall. Any rise from current levels could be restricted at the support-turned-resistance level of Rs 450. On the downside, the contract can fall to Rs 440-430 in the short-term. The medium-term outlook is bearish with strong resistance in the Rs 460-470 region. Medium-term support is in the range between Rs 400 and Rs 390 which can be tested. Only a strong break above Rs 470 will turn the outlook positive.
Crude Oil (Rs 6207)
The MCX crude oil contract is down for the sixth consecutive week and has closed lower by 2.8 per cent for the week. Last week’s prediction in this column that the important support at Rs 6,300 would hold, has turned wrong. Below Rs 6,300, the contract looks vulnerable to falls to Rs 5,786 and Rs 5855 which are 200-day moving average and 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement support levels respectively. Only a strong rise above Rs 6,300 can avoid this fall and can take the contract up to Rs 6,600. The medium-term outlook has turned bearish with the break below Rs 6,300. Important resistance is at Rs 6,600 which has to be breached for the outlook to turn positive. However, below Rs 6,600, a fall to Rs 5,400 looks possible in the medium-term.
Natural Gas (Rs 231)
The MCX natural gas contract has taken support from the 200-day moving average which is now near Rs 218 and has risen sharply by 6.8 per cent last week. The contract still has further scope on the upside and can rise to test the important and strong resistance at Rs 240. This resistance might not be broken easily and there is a high probability for the contract to come down from this level. This will take the contract lower to Rs 220-210. The medium-term outlook is bullish as the contract is trading in a bull channel for more than a year. The channel support is near Rs 200 which can limit the downside. A rise from this support will have the potential to touch Rs 260-270 on the upside.

Monday, October 7, 2013

MCX Copper, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver Technical Analysis

MCX Copper Technical Analysis
Gold (Rs 29,493)
The MCX gold contract has been range-bound between Rs 29,277 and Rs 30,850 over the last three weeks. A breakout on either side of this range will decide the direction for the near-term. A strong rise above Rs 30,850 can take the contract higher to Rs 32,500. On the other hand a break below Rs 29,277 can see the contract declining to Rs 28,500. Technically, the bias is bearish and Rs 28,500 can be tested in the coming days. The area around Rs 28,500 is a very critical medium-term support, which if broken, can take the contract further lower to Rs 25,000-24,500. Conversely, a bounce from Rs 28,500 can see a rise to Rs 30,000-31,000.
Silver (Rs 48,197)
The MCX silver contract remains weak and has closed 3 per cent lower for the week. Although the 200-week moving average support is at Rs 47,754, the overall outlook is weak and near-term downtrend remains intact. The contract can fall to Rs 45,500-44,500 in the near-term. Resistances are at Rs 48,500 and Rs 50,000, which can cap the upside if there is a rebound from the 200-week moving average support at Rs 47,754. The medium-term outlook is also bearish. A decline to Rs 41,500 is possible over this period. Strong resistance is in the Rs 52,000-53,000 region.
Copper (Rs 454)
The MCX copper contract has been ruling in the Rs 450-470 range for the third consecutive week. This week’s price action suggests that the contract can break the lower band of this trading range and fall to Rs 430 in the near-term. Failure to break below Rs 450 can take the contract higher to Rs 470, the upper end of the range. For the medium-term, Rs 430 will be a crucial level to watch. A break below Rs 430 can take the contract further lower to Rs 400-380. On the other hand, a bounce from Rs 430 can see a rally to Rs 470 initially and then to Rs 500-510.
Crude Oil (Rs 6386)
The MCX crude oil contract traded flat in a narrow range of Rs 6,340-6,480 last week. Immediate and significant support is at Rs 6,300 which can limit the downside. There is very little likelihood of the contract declining below the immediate support at Rs 6,300. There is a good chance of a bounce-back rally to Rs 6,600-6,700 in the near-term. The medium-term outlook is bullish while the contract remains above Rs 6,300. A strong bounce from the support at Rs 6,300 will have the potential to test Rs 7,000 or even Rs 7,500 on the upside. In case the contract breaks decisively below the immediate support at Rs 6,300, then the outlook will turn bearish for a fall to Rs 6,000 and lower.
Natural Gas (Rs 216)
The MCX natural gas contract fell sharply by 5 per cent last week. The immediate outlook is bearish and the contract can fall to Rs 200. Resistance is at Rs 230. However, the medium term outlook is bullish for the Natural Gas contract which is trading in a bull channel for more than a year. The channel support is near Rs 200 which might not be broken easily. There is a good chance of a fresh up-move beginning from the channel support at Rs 200 which can target Rs 260-270 on the upside.

Monday, September 23, 2013

MCX Copper Crude Oil Natural Gas Zinc

The MCX Copper contract was broadly ranged between the support at Rs 450 and resistance at Rs 470 in the past week. There is a double top pattern on the daily candle chart and the resistance at Rs 470 which has held well last week is the neckline of this pattern. Having said this, failure to rise above Rs 470 could keep the contract under pressure and can take it down to Rs 450 initially. An eventual break below Rs 450 can then drag the contract further lower to Rs 430 which is the target level of the double top pattern. On the other hand, an immediate decisive break above the resistance at Rs 470 will take the contract higher to Rs 500-510.
Crude Oil (Rs 6,637)
The MCX Crude Oil contract has come down sharply over the last few weeks from the high of Rs 7,784 recorded on August 28. However, the contract is nearing its significant trend line supports at Rs 6,400 and Rs 6,300 which can be tested in the coming week. An immediate fall below Rs 6,300 might not be very easy. As such the downside could be limited to Rs 6,300 and there are good chances for the contract to rebound from the Rs 6,400-6,300 support zone in the coming weeks which can take it back to Rs 7,000 levels.
If the contract falls below Rs 6,300, then the current downtrend can continue and the contract can target Rs 5,850 on the downside.
Natural Gas (Rs 231.4)
The MCX Natural Gas contract has been moving in a good uptrend channel over the last one year. Within this channel, the contract is currently sloping down from the resistance near Rs 260. Immediate resistance at Rs 240 which has held well last week. As such this short-term downtrend can continue and the contract can fall to Rs 210-200 in the coming weeks. A strong break above Rs 240 is required to avoid this fall. But seeing the price action over the last two weeks an immediate break above Rs 240 does not look likely. However, from Rs 210-200, the contract can begin a fresh leg of up move targeting Rs 260-270 on the upside.
Zinc (Rs 115.3)
The MCX Zinc contract has come off sharply from the high of Rs 136.9 over the last few weeks. Immediate support is at Rs 114 which needs to hold to avoid further fall. A bounce from the support at Rs 114 can take the contract higher to Rs 120 in the coming week. Zinc has important resistance at Rs 120 and a failure to rise further beyond this resistance would continue to keep the contract under pressure. On the other hand, if the contract falls below Rs 114 immediately, then the current downtrend would continue targeting the next significant support at Rs 110 .