Weekly Economic Data For 19-Oct-13 to 25-Oct-13.

Exp.:	Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior:	Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today:	Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year:	Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price:	This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below: Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual:	Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.

Data for the week 19-Oct-13 to 25-Oct-13

Date	Time (IST)	Country	Data	Exp.	Prior	Exp. chg today	Avg. chg of last 1 year	Exp. Impact on Price
21-Oct-2013	01-00 PM	European Monetary Union	Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Luxembourg
21-Oct-2013	07-30 PM	United States	Existing Home Sales (MoM)	5.37M	5.48M	-0.11	0.16	Neutral
21-Oct-2013	08-00 PM	United States	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change	3.000M	6.807M	-3.81	3.45	Good
22-26 Oct-2013	06-00 PM	United States	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	-0.10%	0.63	Neutral
22-26 Oct-2013	06-00 PM	United States	Trade Balance	$-39.5B	$-39.15B	-0.35$	3.21	Neutral
22-Oct-2013	06-00 PM	United States	Nonfarm Payrolls	180K	169K	11.00	43.00	Neutral
22-Oct-2013	06-00 PM	United States	Unemployment Rate	7.3%	7.3%	0.00%	0.13	Neutral
22-Oct-2013	08-00 PM	United States	EIA Natural Gas Stocks change	77 bcf	90 bcf	-13.00	33.60	Neutral
23-Oct-2013	04-30 PM	United Kingdom	Bank of England Releases Monetary Policy Committee Minutes					Neutral
23-Oct-2013	07-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Confidence	-14.5	-14.9	0.40	1.04	Neutral
23-Oct-2013	08-00 PM	United States	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		6.807M		3.45
24-25 Oct-2013	--	European Monetary Union	European Council Leaders Summit in Brussels
24-Oct-2013	01-28 PM	European Monetary Union	Markit Manufacturing PMI	51.4	51.1	0.30	0.80	Neutral
24-Oct-2013	07-30 PM	United States	New Home Sales (MoM)	0.425M	0.421M	0.00	0.01	Neutral
24-Oct-2013	08-00 PM	United States	EIA Natural Gas Storage change		90B		33.60
25-Oct-2013	01-30 PM	European Monetary Union	M3 Money Supply (3m)	2.4%	2.3%	0.10%	0.18	Neutral
25-Oct-2013	02-00 PM	United Kingdom	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.8%	0.7%	0.10%	0.75	Neutral
25-Oct-2013	06-00 PM	United States	Durable Goods Orders	1.1%	0.1%	1.00%	6.72	Neutral
25-Oct-2013	07-25 PM	United States	Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	75.0	77.5	-2.50	2.48	Neutral

Lead, Zinc, Copper, Crude oil and Natural Gas. Technical Analysis MCX.

Copper (Rs 448.8): Failing to breach the resistance at Rs 460, the MCX contract reversed lower from the intra-week high of Rs 459.8. The contract can consolidate sideways in the range between Rs 440 and Rs 460 for some time. Within this range the bias is to see a bearish break and fall below Rs 440. This will take the contract lower to Rs 430 in the short-term.

The upside could be limited to Rs 470 if the contract breaks above Rs 460.

The medium-term outlook is also bearish. There is a strong resistance between Rs 460-470 that needs to be broken to reverse the bearish outlook. Below Rs 470, the contract is likely to fall to Rs 400-390 in the medium-term.

Crude oil (Rs 6,192): The intra-week bounce failed to breach the important resistance at Rs 6,300. The MCX crude oil has moved down from the high of Rs 6,348, to close lower for the seventh consecutive week. Below Rs 6,300, the short-term outlook is weak and it may test Rs 5,812 and Rs 5,855 levels which are the 200-day moving average and 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement support levels respectively. Even if the contract breaches the resistance at Rs 6,300, the upside will be limited to Rs 6,500.

The medium-term view is also bearish. Strong resistance is seen in Rs 6,500-6,600 zone. Below this resistance zone a fall to Rs 5,500-5,400 is possible in the medium-term.

Zinc (Rs 116.5): The MCX Zinc contract is consolidating sideways over the last few weeks. This sideways consolidation can continue for some more time and the price can remain in the Rs 113-120 range in the immediate short-term.

Within this range, the bias is towards a bearish trend and the contract can break below Rs 113 in the coming days. The immediate downside target below Rs 113 is Rs 110. An eventual break below Rs 110 can take the price lower to Rs 104.

For the medium-term, the contract has strong support near Rs 100. Above Rs 100, the medium-term outlook is bullish and the contract can trend upwards to test Rs 120-130 levels.

Natural gas (Rs 231.1): As predicted in this column last week, the MCX Natural Gas contract tested the resistance at Rs 240. It fell and closed flat for the week. Failure to breach above Rs 240 implies that the bearish outlook is intact for the short-term.

The contract can fall to Rs 220-210 in the coming weeks. However, the medium-term outlook is bullish as the contract remains in a bull channel. The channel support is near Rs 200 which can limit the downside. A fresh upmove from this support can take the price higher to Rs 260-270.

Lead (Rs 132.2): The sharp fall from the August peak at Rs 155.4, is taking support near Rs 125 over the last couple of weeks. Above Rs 125, the MCX Lead contract can see a corrective rally towards Rs 140-143 in the short-term.

However, a rise above Rs 143 might be difficult. On the other hand, if the price falls below Rs 125, the possibility of which is less at least in the immediate near term, then the contract can fall lower to Rs 120.

The medium-term outlook is bullish. Strong support is at Rs 110-100 levels. The contract may test this support zone, but a fall below Rs 100 is less likely. The contract can take support at this level and move to Rs 160 in the medium-term.

Nickel approaching critical long-term support.

Nickel, an industrial metal, is mainly used to manufacture stainless steel. China leads the table in both production and consumption of refined nickel. In 2012, China contributed about 33 per cent of the total global production and consumed about 48 per cent of the consumption. India’s annual consumption of refined nickel is about 2 per cent on average of the total consumption. India depends entirely on imports to meet its demand.

SUPPLY THREAT

The futures contract price of Nickel traded on the London Metal Exchange has tumbled about 51 per cent since February 2011 because of increasing oversupply in the market. However, the situation may change in the coming year. Indonesia, the top exporter of nickel ore in the world, is planning a ban on the exports of its unprocessed ores from January 1, 2014.

China imports 60 per cent from Indonesia. If this ban comes into effect as planned from January next year, then the current oversupply condition could take a big turnaround. This ban could be a big trigger in reversing the current downtrend in Nickel price and can take the price much higher in the next year.

In this week’s dissector, we examine the outlook of the Nickel futures contract traded on India’s Multi-Commodity Exchange and in the LME. The MCX contract has closed for the week at Rs 869.3 and the LME contract at $14,160.

LONG-TERM VIEW

The LME Nickel futures contract is in a strong downtrend since February 2011. But its price is nearing a crucial long-term trend support at $12,000 which could halt this downtrend. A bounce back from this support can take the price higher towards $20,000. On the other hand, if $12,000 gets broken, the contract can decline to test $9,000-8,000.

The MCX Nickel contract witnessed a sharp fall from the high if Rs 2,253 recorded in April 2007 to a low of Rs 442.3 in December 2008.

The corrective rally of this fall found resistance at Rs 1,327.8 in February 2011, just below the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement resistance level of Rs 1,348 and the contract is coming down again since then. Failure to rise past the resistance at Rs 1,348 keeps the long-term downtrend intact for the MCX contract. Important support is at Rs 780, which if broken, can trigger a fresh fall. A rise from Rs 780 can be restricted to Rs 1,000 which is a strong technical as well a psychological resistance.

While below Rs 1,000, the contract would remain vulnerable to break Rs 780 and fall to Rs 600-500 in the long-term.

This fall to Rs 600-500 will be avoided only on a strong breach of Rs 1,000 that will open doors to target Rs 1,250-1,300 on the upside.

MEDIUM-TERM VIEW

The MCX contract is trading in a bear channel since November 2011. The channel support is near Rs 800. While above Rs 800, a rise to test the channel resistance at Rs 950 looks likely. The contract is expected to remain in this bear channel for some time.

The strong fall from the August high of Rs 1,004 is finding support near Rs 840 over the last couple of weeks. The contract could now see a corrective rally to Rs 900 while it remains above Rs 840. If the resistance at Rs 900 is broken then the contract can rise further higher to Rs 920. Else, it can fall back to Rs 840 again.

Japanese Candlestick Basics. Simple Pattern.

Candlesticks are usually composed of the body (black or white), an upper and a lower shadow (wick). The wick illustrates the highest and lowest traded prices of a stock, and the body the opening and closing trades. If the stock went up, the body is white, with the opening price at the bottom of the body and the closing price at the top. If the stock went down, the body is black, with the opening price at the top and the closing price at the bottom. A candlestick need not have either a body .

Simple Patterns

There are multiple forms of candlestick chart patterns, with the simplest depicted at right. Here is a quick overview of their names:

1)White candlestick - signals uptrend movement (those occur in different lengths; the longer the body, the more significant the price increase)

2)Black candlestick - signals downtrend movement (those occur in different lengths; the longer the body, the more significant the price decrease)

3)Long lower shadow - bullish signal (the lower wick must be at least the body's size; the longer the lower wick, the more reliable the signal)

4)Long upper shadow - bearish signal (the upper wick must be at least the body's size; the longer the upper wick, the more reliable the signal)

5)Hammer - a bullish pattern during a downtrend (long lower wick and small or no body); Shaven head - a bullish pattern during a downtrend & a bearish pattern during an uptrend (no upper wick);

6)Hanging man - bearish pattern during an uptrend (long lower wick, small or no body; wick has the multiple length of the body.Inverted hammer - signals bottom reversal, however confirmation must be obtained from next trade (may be either a white or black body);Shaven bottom - signaling bottom reversal, however confirmation must be obtained from next trade (no lower wick);Shooting star - a bearish pattern during an uptrend (small body, long upper wick, small or no lower wick)

7)Spinning top white - neutral pattern, meaningful in combination with other candlestick patterns

8)Spinning top black - neutral pattern, meaningful in combination with other candlestick patterns

9)Doji - neutral pattern, meaningful in combination with other candlestick patterns

10)Long legged doji - signals a top reversal

11)Dragonfly doji - signals trend reversal (no upper wick, long lower wick)

12)Gravestone doji - signals trend reversal (no lower wick, long upper wick)

13)Marubozu white - dominant bullish trades, continued bullish trend (no upper, no lower wick)

14)Marubozu black - dominant bearish trades, continued bearish trend (no upper, no lower wick)

History And Principles Of Technical Analysis Japanese Candlestick - Dow Theory Techniques. Definition of Candlestick And Bar Chart.

History

The principles of technical analysis derive from the observation of financial markets over hundreds of years. The oldest known example of technical analysis was a method used by Japanese traders as early as the 18th century, which evolved into the use of Candlestick techniques, and is today a main charting tool.

Dow Theory is based on the collected writings of Dow Jones co-founder and editor Charles Dow, and inspired the use and development of modern technical analysis from the end of the 19th century. Modern technical analysis considers Dow Theory its cornerstone.

Many more technical tools and theories have been developed and enhanced in recent decades, with an increasing emphasis on computer-assisted techniques.

Principles of Technical Analysis

Market action discounts everything
Prices move in trends
History tends to repeat itself.

Definition of 'Candlestick'

A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security for a single day. The wide part of the candlestick is called the "real body" and tells investors whether the closing price was higher or lower than the opening price (black/red if the stock closed lower, white/green if the stock closed higher). The candlestick's shadows show the day's high and lows and how they compare to the open and close. A candlestick's shape varies based on the relationship between the day's high, low, opening and closing prices. 

Definition of 'Bar Chart' 

A style of chart used by some technical analysts, on which, as illustrated below, the top of the vertical line indicates the highest price a security traded at during the day, and the bottom represents the lowest price. The closing price is displayed on the right side of the bar, and the opening price is shown on the left side of the bar. A single bar like the one below represents one day of trading. 

Data for the week 12-Oct-13 to 18-Oct-13

Exp.:	Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior:	Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today:	Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year:	Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price:	This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below: Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual:	Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.

Data for the week 12-Oct-13 to 18-Oct-13

Date	Time (IST)	Country	Data	Exp.	Prior	Exp. chg today	Avg. chg of last 1 year	Exp. Impact on Price
12-Oct-2013	07-30 AM	China	Exports (YoY)	6.0%	7.2%	-1.20%	5.65	Neutral
12-Oct-2013	07-30 AM	China	Imports (YoY)	7%	7%	0.00%	6.92	Neutral
12-Oct-2013	07-30 AM	China	Trade Balance	27.7B	28.6B	-0.90	13.34	Neutral
14-Oct-2013	07-00 AM	China	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	2.8%	2.6%	0.20%	0.43	Neutral
14-Oct-2013	07-00 AM	China	Producer Price Index (YoY)	-1.4%	-1.6%	0.20%	0.61	Neutral
14-Oct-2013	12-00 PM	India	Wholesale Prices YoY	6.0%	6.1%	-0.10	0.46	Neutral
14-Oct-2013	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)	-2.7%	-2.1%	-0.60%	0.59	Neutral
14-Oct-2013	06-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Luxembourg
15-Oct-2013	12-30 PM	European Monetary Union	EU Finance Ministers Meet in Luxembourg
15-Oct-2013	02-00 PM	United Kingdom	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.3%	0.4%	-0.10%	0.45	Neutral
15-Oct-2013	02-30 PM	Germany	ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment	51.0	49.6	1.40	12.25	Neutral
15-19 Oct-2013	06-00 PM	United States	Producer Price Index (YoY)	0.6%	1.4%	-0.80%	0.63	Good
15-19 Oct-2013	Deferred	United States	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.0%	0.2%	-0.20%	0.63	Neutral
15-19 Oct-2013	06-00 PM	United States	Trade Balance	$-39.5B	$-39.15B	-0.35$	3.21	Neutral
15-19 Oct-2013	06-00 PM	United States	Nonfarm Payrolls	179K	169K	10.00	43.00	Neutral
15-19 Oct-2013	06-00 PM	United States	Unemployment Rate	7.3%	7.3%	0.00%	0.13	Neutral
16-Oct-2013	02-00 PM	United Kingdom	ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)	7.7%	7.7%	0.00%	0.07	Neutral
16-Oct-2013	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.5%	0.1%	0.40%	0.65	Neutral
16-Oct-2013	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Trade Balance s.a.		€11.1B		2.05
16-Oct-2013	08-00 PM	United States	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		6.807M		3.45
16-Oct-2013	23-30 PM	European Monetary Union	ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt
17-19 Oct-2013	06-00 PM	United States	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	1.2%	1.5%	-0.30%	0.25	Good
18-Oct-2013	07-30 AM	China	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	7.8%	7.5%	0.30%	0.48	Neutral
18-Oct-2013	11-00 AM	China	Industrial Production (YoY)	10.2%	10.4%	-0.20%	0.67	Neutral
18-Oct-2013	11-00 AM	China	Retail Sales (YoY)	13.4%	13.4%	0.00%	0.78	Neutral
18-Oct-2013	01-30 PM	European Monetary Union	EU Trade Ministers Hold Meeting in Luxembourg
18-26 Oct-2013	06-45 PM	United States	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.4%	0.4%	0.00%	0.97	Neutral

Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude oil and Natural Gas. Technical Analysis MCX.

Gold (Rs 28,365)

The MCX gold contract fell sharply by 3.8 per cent last week. The contract has closed below the significant 200-day moving average which is currently at Rs 28,515. The short-term outlook remains weak and the contract can fall further to test its next important support at Rs 27,500. There is a high probability for this support to hold, and the contract can see a temporary relief rally to Rs 29,500. But, if Rs 27,500 is broken, then the contract can decline further to Rs 25,500. For the medium-term, Rs 29,500-30,500 is a strong resistance zone. However, a fall to Rs 25,500-25,000 looks more likely.

Silver (Rs 46,891)

The MCX silver contract fell 2.8 per cent last week. The immediate outlook is bearish, and the contract can fall to Rs 45,500-44,500. After finding support at this level, the contract can see a corrective rally to Rs 48,500. Short-term resistances are at Rs 48,500 and Rs 50,000. The medium-term outlook is also bearish with strong resistance in the Rs 52,000-53,000 region and the contract can fall to Rs 41,500-40,500 in the medium-term.

Copper (Rs 445.7)

As predicted in this column last week, the MCX copper contract has broken its Rs 450-470 range on the downside, thereby giving way for a further fall. Any rise from current levels could be restricted at the support-turned-resistance level of Rs 450. On the downside, the contract can fall to Rs 440-430 in the short-term. The medium-term outlook is bearish with strong resistance in the Rs 460-470 region. Medium-term support is in the range between Rs 400 and Rs 390 which can be tested. Only a strong break above Rs 470 will turn the outlook positive.

Crude Oil (Rs 6207)

The MCX crude oil contract is down for the sixth consecutive week and has closed lower by 2.8 per cent for the week. Last week’s prediction in this column that the important support at Rs 6,300 would hold, has turned wrong. Below Rs 6,300, the contract looks vulnerable to falls to Rs 5,786 and Rs 5855 which are 200-day moving average and 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement support levels respectively. Only a strong rise above Rs 6,300 can avoid this fall and can take the contract up to Rs 6,600. The medium-term outlook has turned bearish with the break below Rs 6,300. Important resistance is at Rs 6,600 which has to be breached for the outlook to turn positive. However, below Rs 6,600, a fall to Rs 5,400 looks possible in the medium-term.

Natural Gas (Rs 231)

The MCX natural gas contract has taken support from the 200-day moving average which is now near Rs 218 and has risen sharply by 6.8 per cent last week. The contract still has further scope on the upside and can rise to test the important and strong resistance at Rs 240. This resistance might not be broken easily and there is a high probability for the contract to come down from this level. This will take the contract lower to Rs 220-210. The medium-term outlook is bullish as the contract is trading in a bull channel for more than a year. The channel support is near Rs 200 which can limit the downside. A rise from this support will have the potential to touch Rs 260-270 on the upside.