Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Lead and Zinc Statistics

Zinc and lead are the two most widely used non-ferrous metals after aluminium and copper and are vital materials in everyday life.

The latest ILZSG monthly data is listed below. Detailed information on lead and zinc supply, demand, trade, stocks and prices is available in the Group's 68 page monthly 'Lead and Zinc Statistical Bulletin'. For further information please select 'Publications' from the main menu.

World Refined Lead Supply and Usage 2008 - 2013
000 tonnes	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2012	2013	2013
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Jan-Oct		Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Mine Production	3812	3810	4161	4636	4994	4153	4307	436.6	448.8	478.1	453.9
Metal Production	9227	9233	9840	10587	10573	8562	8885	892.4	894.3	893.4	935.9
Metal Usage	9219	9242	9812	10439	10514	8479	8939	925.9	877.9	887.1	932.1

World Refined Zinc Supply and Usage 2008 - 2013
000 tonnes	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2012	2013	2013
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Jan-Oct		Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Mine Production	11875	11620	12385	12661	13144	10854	11033	1111.3	1120.4	1161.5	1131.7
Metal Production	11774	11281	12896	13080	12592	10327	10938	1092.9	1100.5	1127.6	1165.2
Metal Usage	11574	10915	12649	12706	12340	10226	10940	1102.1	1085.9	1150.8	1199.1

Monday, December 16, 2013

Weekly Economic Data for the week 14-Dec-13 to 20-Dec-13.

Exp.:

Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.

Prior:

Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.

Exp. change today:

Exp. - Prior

Avg. change of last 1 year:

Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.

Expected impact on price:

This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:

Very Good

Good

Neutral

Bad

Very Bad

Actual:

Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.

Data for the week 14-Dec-13 to 20-Dec-13

Date	Time (IST)	Country	Data	Exp.	Prior	Exp. chg today	Avg. chg of last 1 year	Exp. Impact on Price
16-21 Dec-2013	-	United States	U.S., EU Hold Transatlantic Trade Talks in Washington
16-Dec-2013	12-00 PM	India	WPI Inflation	7%	7%	0.00%	0.38	Neutral
16-Dec-2013	02-00 PM	European Monetary Union	EU Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels
16-Dec-2013	02-28 PM	European Monetary Union	Markit Manufacturing PMI	51.9	51.6	0.30	0.80	Neutral
16-Dec-2013	03-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Trade Balance s.a.	€14.5B	€14.3B	0.20€	2.05	Neutral
16-Dec-2013	07-30 PM	European Monetary Union	ECB President Draghi Speaks to European Parliament in Brussels
16-Dec-2013	07-45 PM	United States	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.6	-0.1%	0.70%	0.97	Neutral
16-Dec-2013	09-45 PM	European Monetary Union	EU, Moroccan Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels

17-19 Dec-2013	--	United States	Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting
17-Dec-2013	06-00 AM	Australia	RBA Releases Policy Meeting Minutes From December
17-Dec-2013	03-00 PM	United Kingdom	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%	0.10%	0.45	Neutral
17-Dec-2013	03-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.00%	0.65	Neutral
17-Dec-2013	03-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	0.9%	0.9%	0.00%	0.07	Neutral
17-Dec-2013	03-30 PM	Germany	ZEW Survey - Current Situation	29.9	28.7	1.20	5.46	Neutral
17-Dec-2013	03-30 PM	Germany	ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment	55.0	54.6	0.40	12.25	Neutral
17-Dec-2013	07-00 PM	United States	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	1.3%	1.0%	0.30%	0.26	Good

18-Dec-2013	00-00 AM	European Monetary Union	Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels
18-Dec-2013	11-30 PM	United States	FOMC Economic Projections
18-Dec-2013	11-00 AM	India	RBI Cash Reserve Ratio	4.0%	4.0%	0.00%	0.03	Neutral
18-Dec-2013	11-00 AM	India	RBI Repurchase Rate	8.0%	7.75%	0.25%	0.16	Bad
18-Dec-2013	11-00 AM	India	RBI Reverse Repo Rate	7.0%	6.75%	0.25%	0.16	Bad
18-Dec-2013	01-30 PM	European Monetary Union	European Union Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels
18-Dec-2013	01-30 PM	Germany	Merkel Addresses German Lawmakers on EU Summit
18-Dec-2013	02-30 PM	Germany	IFO - Business Climate	109.5	109.3	0.20	1.26	Neutral
18-Dec-2013	03-00 PM	United Kingdom	ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)	7.6%	7.6%	0.00%	0.07	Neutral
18-Dec-2013	03-00 PM	United Kingdom	Bank of England Releases Monetary Policy Committee Minutes
18-Dec-2013	09-00 PM	United States	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		-10.585M		3.45

19-20 Dec-2013	--	European Monetary Union	EU Leaders Hold Summit in Brussels
19-Dec-2013	12-30 AM	United States	Fed Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.00%	0.00	Neutral
19-Dec-2013	12-30 AM	United States	FOMC Economic Projections
19-Dec-2013	01-00 AM	United States	Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
19-Dec-2013	08-30 PM	United States	Existing Home Sales (MoM)	5.02M	5.12M	45.08	0.16	Neutral
19-Dec-2013	09-00 PM	United States	EIA Natural Gas Storage change		-81B		33.60

20-Dec-2013	--	Japan	BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target		¥270T
20-Dec-2013	03-00 PM	United Kingdom	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.8%	0.8%	0.00%	0.34	Neutral
20-Dec-2013	07-00 PM	United States	Gross Domestic Product Annualized QoQ	3.6%	3.6%	0.00%	1.11	Neutral
20-Dec-2013	08-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Confidence	-15	-15.4	0.40	1.04	Neutral

Technicals: Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude oil, Natural gas.

Gold (Rs 29,432)

A huge gap-down opening last week keeps the bearish outlook intact for the MCX gold futures contract. There is a strong resistance in Rs 29,880-30,500 zone. Rally to this will be a good opportunity for entering short-positions with a stop-loss at Rs 30,650. However, traders have to be cautious as the market could turn volatile after the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.

The 200-day moving average at Rs 28,583 will be a crucial support level. Declines below this support can take the price lower to Rs 25,500 over the medium-term. If the contract manages to sustain above the 200-day moving average support, then sideways movement between Rs 28,500 and Rs 30,500 is possible for the next few weeks.

Silver (Rs 44,776)

The corrective rally in the MCX silver contract from the low of Rs 42,418 found resistance at the 200-day moving average (currently at Rs 45,821) last week. The outlook remains bearish.

Traders can continue to hold on to their short positions with a revised stop-loss at Rs 46,300. The contract can fall to Rs 42,400 immediately and then to Rs 41,400. For the medium-term, Rs 41,400 and Rs 40,000 are the crucial support levels which might not be broken in a hurry.

Copper (Rs 461.7)

The MCX copper contract surged 3.5 per cent last week and the outlook has turned bullish. Significant supports are at Rs 456.5 and Rs 451.

Traders can go long now and accumulate on dips to Rs 455 with a stop-loss at Rs 448.

The contract can target Rs 470 immediately and then Rs 510.

The contract’s strong rise from the November low of Rs 428.85 is signalling a reversal of the downtrend that started in September. For the medium-term, Rs 510 will be a critical resistance level for the contract.

Crude oil (Rs 6,034)

The MCX crude oil contract has been continuing its consolidation in Rs 5,750-6,100 range for the seventh consecutive week within its overall downtrend. Traders have to wait for a breakout of this range to enter a trade.

A break above Rs 6,100 can take the contract higher to Rs 6,380. On the other hand, decline below Rs 5,750 can drag the price lower to Rs 5,680 immediately and to Rs 5,500 thereafter.

In the short-term, the probability of the contract breaching Rs 6,100 and moving to Rs 6,380 is higher. However, the medium-term trend is down and a fall to Rs 5,500 looks more likely.

Natural gas (Rs 272.5)

The MCX natural gas contract closed at its medium-term bull channel resistance last week. The price action in the coming week will be crucial to know the direction in the coming weeks. Key resistances are at Rs 276 and at Rs 282.

However, since the contract has risen consistently in the last six weeks, the probability is high for a corrective pull back. Immediate support is at Rs 270. Decline below this support can take the contract lower to Rs 262 and Rs 252. Short-term traders with high risk appetite can go short if the contract declines below Rs 270 with a stop-loss at Rs 277.

Production surplus to keep copper on leash.

Already in surplus this year, global copper output is
expected to outstrip demand by an even greater margin in 2014. This is likely to keep prices of this key input for the electricity and telecom sectors depressed in the medium-term. Copper is currently trading at $7,054 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, down 12 per cent since the start of the year.

According to International Copper Study Group estimates, world production of refined copper will exceed demand by about 3.9 lakh tonnes this year, due to the lag in consumption growth vis-à-vis output expansion. In 2014, even though usage is expected to pick up amid the improved global economic environment, the surplus is expected to widen further due to enhanced production from new and existing mines.

Project pipeline

After three years of relatively stagnant production, mine production is estimated to have risen this year by 6.5 per cent to 17.8 million tonnes from 2012 levels. The strong growth is expected to continue in 2014 and 2015 as more mine projects that were deferred or delayed during the financial crisis come on stream. The world mine production is expected to increase to 18.6 mt in 2014. Most of the new production is expected to be in copper concentrate, with only limited electrowinning expansion.

Demand growth

With respect to refined copper production, the ICSG has pegged growth at around 5.5 per cent to 22.1 mt next year. This will be primarily due to the resumption of activities at existing plants and new and expanded capacity at electrolytic plants in China, besides solvent extraction and electrowinning plants in Africa.

Primary refined copper production is tipped to grow by about 7 per cent and secondary production by 2 per cent.

World refined copper demand is expected to have dipped by 0.1 per cent in 2013 to 20.5 mt, the same volume as in 2012. This is mainly on account of lower imports of refined copper by China, even as overall imports of copper inputs rose by 6 per cent due to the Communist country’s strategy of value addition to imports.

Usage in other parts of the world is estimated to have increased by 1 per cent during the year.

The demand situation in 2014 is more optimistic. With better prospects expected for the world economy, consumption is expected to grow by 4.5 per cent in 2014 to 21.4 mt. However, the ICSG has warned that factors such as Euro Zone sovereign debt concerns, political transitions in West Asia and North Africa and production shortfalls due to labour unrest, utility and capital shortages, besides technical factors, could skew its projections.

India impact

Falling prices of copper will benefit India, which is one of the world’s top 20 producers of the base metal, but also one of the largest importers. Copper production in India totalled 7.1 lakh tonnes in 2008, while demand amounted to about 5.5 lakh tonnes, according to a report by the Indian Commodity Exchange. Typically, over 30 per cent of India’s copper demand comes from the telecom sector and 26 per cent from the electrical sector in India. In addition, the building and construction, engineering, transport and consumer durables sectors are major consumers of copper in the country. These sectors stand to benefit the most from lower prices of copper.

GOLDMAN: Here Are 3 Reasons Why The Fed Won't Taper Next Week

A slew of strong better-than-expected economic data has economists increasing the odds that the Federal Reserve will announce the tapering its $85 billion quantitative easing program at the conclusion of its FOMC meeting on Wednesday December 18.

"It's still a close call, but chances are now above 50 percent that the Federal Reserve will modestly reduce its asset purchases later this month," said Potomac Research Group's Greg Valliere who was communicating the analysis of former Fed Vice Chair Don Kohn. "There's a 60-40 chance that the FOMC will decide on Dec. 18 to begin tapering."

However, a December tapering announcement is not the consensus. Most economists don't expect a tapering announcement until January or March.

Goldman Sachs' David Mericle explains three reasons why in a new 9-page note to clients.

Economic Data: "...the data since October is mixed at best. The strongest argument in favor is the improvement in the trend rate of payroll growth to the 200k level. However, we expect that Fed officials will also put considerable weight on inflation, which has fallen further in recent months."
Communication: "...we continue to expect that tapering will be offset by a strengthening of the forward guidance, but we doubt the FOMC is ready to take this step. While some eventual strengthening or clarifying of the forward guidance is now a consensus expectation, the October minutes and recent Fed commentary suggest little agreement on what form this should take."
Expectations: "...while consensus expectations now place greater probability on a December taper, it remains a minority view. We suspect that this makes a move less likely, as Fed officials will be reluctant to deliver a hawkish surprise that could tighten financial conditions and raise doubts about their commitment to the inflation target."

Mericle expects tapering to begin in March, "with January possible as well."

As for the December FOMC meeting: "We expect modest changes to the economic forecasts. In light of recent data, participants will likely mark down their projections of inflation and the unemployment rate and mark up their growth projections slightly," wrote Mericle.

Notable economists forecasting a tapering announcement include Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Chris Rupkey and Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna.

Monday, December 9, 2013

Weekly Economic Data for the week 07-Dec-13 to 13-Dec-13.