2014 MCX HOLIDAYS

LME PRICE MOVEMENT AND WAREHOUSE STOCK MOVEMENT FOR DECEMBER 2013

Weekly Economic Data for the week 11-Jan-14 to 17-Jan-14

Exp.:	Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior:	Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today:	Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year:	Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price:	This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below: Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual:	Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.

Data for the week 11-Jan-14 to 17-Jan-14

Date	Time (IST)	Country	Data	Exp.	Prior	Exp. chg today	Avg. chg of last 1 year	Exp. Impact on Price
12-Jan-2014	--	United Kingdom	Central Bank and Regulatory Chiefs Meet in Basel
13-15-Jan-2014	--	China	Money Supply M2 YoY	13.9%	14.2%	-0.30	0.71	Neutral
14-Jan-2014	03-00 PM	United Kingdom	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.5%	0.1%	0.40%	0.45	Neutral
14-Jan-2014	03-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)	1.8%	0.2%	1.60%	0.59	Very Good
14-Jan-2014	07-00 PM	United States	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	0.7%	-0.60%	0.63	Neutral
15-Jan-2014	06-30 AM	United States	World Bank Releases New Global Growth Forecasts
15-Jan-2014	12-00 PM	India	Wholesale Prices YoY	7.0%	7.52%	-0.52	0.46	Good
15-Jan-2014	03-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Trade Balance s.a.	€14.8B	€14.5B	0.30€	2.05	Good
15-Jan-2014	07-00 PM	United States	Producer Price Index (YoY)	1.10%	0.7%	0.40%	0.63	Neutral
15-Jan-2014	08-30 PM	United States	U.S. House Financial Committee Hearing on the Volcker Rule
15-Jan-2014	09-00 PM	United States	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change	-	-2.675M	2.68	3.45
16-Jan-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	ECB Publishes Monthly Report
16-Jan-2013	03-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.3%	-0.1%	0.40%	0.65	Neutral
16-Jan-2014	03-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)	0.8%			0.05
16-Jan-2014	06-15 PM	Spain	Bank of Spain Governor Speaks in Madrid
16-Jan-2014	07-00 PM	United States	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	1.5%	1.2%	0.30%	0.25	Good
16-Jan-2014	09-00 PM	United States	EIA Natural Gas Storage change		-157		33.60
16-Jan-2014	09-40 PM	United States	Fed's Bernanke Speaks on Challenges Facing Central Banks
17-Jan-2014	07-45 PM	United States	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.3%	1.1%	-0.80%	0.97	Neutral
17-Jan-2014	08-25 PM	United States	Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	83.5	82.5	1.00	2.48	Neutral

Technical Analysis MCX Metals And Energy.

Gold (Rs 29,033)

Pulling back from their high of Rs 29,276 per 10 grams, MCX Gold futures have found support at the 200-day moving average, currently at Rs 28,743. The short-term outlook is bullish and a rise to Rs 31,000 looks likely in coming weeks. Intermediate resistances are seen at Rs 29,570 and Rs 29,970. A breach of these resistances will clear the way for upward movement to Rs 31,000. The 200-day moving average is the immediate support, a breach of which could drag the contract below Rs 28,350. Traders can go long, with stop-loss at Rs 28,300. The key medium-term resistance is at Rs 31,000 and the contract needs to move past this level for the outlook to turn bullish. Inability to do so would see the contract move in a broad sideways range between Rs 28,000 and Rs 31,000.

Silver (Rs 44,824)

MCX silver contracts have been trading in a narrow range between Rs 43,500 to Rs 45,850 per kg in the last few days. A breakout from this range will decide the short-term trend. A strong break above Rs 45,850 will be bullish and the contract could move toward a target of Rs 47,850. On the other hand, a fall below Rs 43,500 will be bearish and could see the contract decline to Rs 42,000. Short-term traders can wait for a breakout before taking positions In the medium-term, Rs 41,500 and Rs 40,000 are the crucial supports.

Copper (Rs 457.45)

Copper futures on the MCX have fallen for the second consecutive week, cutting short an uptrend from their November low of Rs 428.85 per kg. The expected rally to Rs 510 looks less probable in the near-term. Immediate support is at Rs 453. Inability to bounce back from this support in the coming week will keep the contract under pressure. A break below Rs 453 could pull the contract below Rs 438. If the contract breaches Rs 453, short-term traders can go short with stop-loss at Rs 465. A strong close above Rs 470 will pave the way for a rally to Rs 510.

Crude oil (Rs 5,704)

MCX Crude Oil futures extended their fall for the second consecutive week and the outlook remains bearish. Traders can accumulate short positions with revised stop-loss at Rs 6,150 per barrel. A fall to Rs 5,500 and Rs 5,350 is more likely now. Immediate resistance is at Rs 5,750. Even if the contract moves past this level, it will face strong resistance at Rs 5,975. In the medium-term, Rs 5,350-5,400 is a strong support zone that may not be broken easily. There is probability of a reversal from this zone, which could take the contract higher to Rs 8,000 in the long-term.

Natural gas (Rs 251.2)

The MCX Natural Gas contract tumbled 8 per cent last week. Technically, a strong reversal has happened from the Rs 275-280 resistance zone, which is the upper end of the bull channel. Consequently, it is likely the contract will extend its fall to Rs 240 per million British thermal units in future. A break below Rs 240 will take the contract lower to Rs 220, which is the bull channel support. Resistances are seen at Rs 260 and Rs 265. Upward movement in the coming week will be an opportunity to assume short-positions, with stop-loss at Rs 272.

23 Reasons To Be Bullish On Gold

It's been one of the worst years for gold in a generation. A flood of outflows from gold ETFs, endless tax increases on gold imports in India, and the mirage (albeit a convincing one in the eyes of many) of a supposedly improving economy in the US have all contributed to the constant hammering gold took in 2013.

Perhaps worse has been the onslaught of negative press our favorite metal has suffered. It's felt overwhelming at times and has pushed even some die-hard goldbugs to question their beliefs… not a bad thing, by the way.

To me, a lot of it felt like piling on, especially as the negative rhetoric ratcheted up. Last year's winner was probably Goldman Sachs, calling gold a "slam-dunk sale" for 2014 (this, of course, after it's already fallen by nearly a third over a period of more than two and a half years—how daring they are).

This is why it's important to balance the one-sided message typically heard in the mainstream media with other views. Here are some of those contrarian voices, all of which have put their money where their mouth is…

• Marc Faber is quick to stand up to the gold bears. "We have a lot of bearish sentiment, [and] a lot of bearish commentaries about gold, but the fact is that some countries are actually accumulating gold, notably China. They will buy this year at a rate of something like 2,600 tons, which is more than the annual production of gold. So I think that prices are probably in the process of bottoming out here, and that we will see again higher prices in the future."

• Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, told CNBC viewers to "buy gold if they believe in math… Longer term, I think gold goes to $5,000 over a number of years. If they continue to print money at the current rate, I think it could be multiples of that. I see a slow steady rise punctuated with some sharp upward moves."

• Jim Rogers, billionaire and cofounder of the Soros Quantum Fund, publicly stated in November that he has never sold any gold and can't imagine ever selling gold in his life because he sees it as an insurance policy. "With all this staggering amount of currency debasement, gold has got to be a good place to be down the road once we get through this correction."

• George Soros seems to be getting back into the gold miners: he recently acquired a substantial stake in the large-cap Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and kept his calls on Barrick Gold (ABX).

• Don Coxe, a highly respected global commodities strategist, says we can expect gold to rise with an improving economy, the opposite of what many in the mainstream expect. "You need gold for insurance, but this time the payoff will come when the economy improves. In the past when everything was falling all around you, commodity prices were soaring out of sight. We had three recessions in the 1970s and gold went from $35 an ounce to $850. But this time, gold is going to appreciate when we start getting 3% GDP growth."

• Jeffrey Gundlach, bond guru and not historically known for being a big fan of gold, came out with a candid endorsement of the yellow metal: "Now, I kind of like gold. It's definitely very non-correlated to other assets you may have in your portfolio, and it does seem sort of cheap. I also like the GDX."

• Steve Forbes, publishing magnate and chief executive officer of Forbes magazine, publicly predicted an impending return to the gold standard in a speech in Las Vegas. "A new gold standard is crucial. The disasters that the Federal Reserve and other central banks are inflicting on us with their funny-money policies are enormous and underappreciated."

• Rob McEwen, CEO of McEwen Mining and founder of Goldcorp, reiterated his bullish call for gold to someday top $5,000. "We now have governments willing to seize their citizens' assets. We now have currency controls on the table, which we haven't seen since the late 1960s/early '70s. We have continued debasement of currencies. And the economies of the Western world remain stagnant despite enormous monetary stimulation. All these facts to me are bullish for gold and make me believe the price will bounce back relatively soon."

• Doug Casey says that while gold is not the giveaway it was at $250 back in 2001, it is nonetheless a bargain at current prices. "I've been buying gold for years and I continue to buy it because it is the way you save. I'm very happy to be able to buy gold at this price. All the so-called quantitative easing—money printing—by governments around the world has created a glut of freshly printed money. This glut has yet to work its way through the global economic system. As it does, it will create a bubble in gold and a super-bubble in gold stocks."

And then there's the people who should know most about how sound the world's various types of paper money are: central banks. As a group, they have added tonnes of bullion to their reserves last year…

• Turkey added 13 tonnes (417,959 troy ounces) of gold in November 2013. Overall, it has added 143.6 tonnes (4,616,847 troy ounces) so far this year, up 22.5% from a year ago, in part thanks to the adoption of a new policy to accept gold in its reserve requirements from commercial banks.

• Russia bought 19.1 tonnes (614,079 troy ounces) in July and August alone. With the year-to-date addition of 57.37 tonnes—second only to Turkey—Russia's gold reserves now total 1,015 tonnes. It now holds the eighth-largest national stash in the world.

• South Korea added a whopping 20 tonnes (643,014 troy ounces) of gold in February, and now carries 23.7% more gold on its balance sheet than at the end of 2012."Gold is a real safe asset that can help (us) respond to tail risks from global financial situations effectively and boosts the reliability of our foreign reserves holdings," said central bank officials.

• Kazakhstan has been buying gold every month, at an average of 2.4 tonnes (77,161 troy ounces) through October. As a result, the country's reserves have seen a 21% increase to 139.5 tonnes from a year ago.

• Azerbaijan has taken advantage of a slump in gold prices and has gone from having virtually no gold to 16 tonnes (514,411 ounces).

• Sri Lanka and Ukraine added 5.5 (176,829 troy ounces) and 6.22 tonnes (199,977 troy ounces) respectively over the past year.

• China, of course, is the 800-pound gorilla that mainstream analysts seem determined to ignore. Though nothing official has been announced by China's central bank, the chart below provides some perspective into the country's consumer buying habits.

China ended 2013 officially as the largest gold consumer in the world. Chinese sentiment towards gold is well echoed in a statement made by Liu Zhongbo of the Agricultural Bank of China: "Because gold has capabilities to absorb external economic shocks, growth of its use in the international monetary system will be imminent."

And those commercial banks that have been verbally slamming gold—it turns out many are not as negative as it might seem…

• Goldman Sachs proved itself to be one of the biggest hypocrites: while advising clients to sell gold and buy Treasuries in Q2 2013, it bought a stunning (and record) 3.7 million shares of GLD. And when Venezuela decided to raise cash by pawning its gold, guess who jumped in to handle the transaction? Yes, they claim the price will fall this year, but with such a slippery track record, it's important to watch what they do and not what they say.

• Société Générale Strategist Albert Edwards says gold will top $10,000 per ounce (with the S&P 500 Index tumbling to 450 and Treasuries yielding less than 1%).

• JPMorgan Chase went on record in August recommending clients "position for a short-term bounce in gold." Gold's price resistance to Paulson & Co. cutting its gold exposure, along with growing physical gold demand in Asia, were cited among the main reasons.

• ScotiaMocatta's Sunil Kashyap said that despite the selloff, there's still significant physical demand for gold, especially from India and China, which "supports prices."

• Commerzbank calls for the gold price to enter a boom period this year. Based on investment demand from Asian countries—China and India in particular—the bank predicted the yellow metal will rise to $1,400 by the end of 2014.

• Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in spite of lower price forecasts for gold this year, reiterated they remain "longer-term bulls."

• Citibank's top technical analyst Tom Fitzpatrick stated gold could head to $3,500. "We believe we are back into that track where gold is the hard currency of choice, and we expect for this trend to accelerate going forward."

None of these parties thinks the gold bull market is over. What they care about is safety in this uncertain environment, as well as what they see as enormous potential upside.

In the end, the much ridiculed goldbugs will have had the last laugh.

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Technical Analysis MCX Metals And Energy.

Copper (Rs 465.5)

The MCX copper futures contract is not gaining momentum to rise above Rs 474. Supports are at Rs 462 and at Rs 459 which may be tested in the coming week. The contract can consolidate between Rs 459 and Rs 474 for some time. Nevertheless, the outlook is bullish as long as the contract trades above Rs 459. Declines to Rs 462 and Rs 459 can be considered for going long with a stop-loss at Rs 454. A rally to Rs 510 looks likely in the coming weeks. For the medium-term, Rs 510 is a key resistance level which can trigger a reversal.

Crude oil (Rs 5,897)

A steep fall in the global crude oil prices has led to a sharp decline in the MCX crude oil futures contract last week. Technically, last week’s reversal has happened just below the 21-week moving average, at Rs 6,330. This signals the end of the corrective rally witnessed in December. The overall downtrend remains intact and an immediate fall to the support at Rs 5,750 looks likely now. A breach of this support can drag the contract lower to Rs 5,500. Resistance is at Rs 6,100. Traders can go short now and accumulate more on rallies to Rs 6,100 with a stop-loss at Rs 6,350. For the medium-term, Rs 5,500 is a strong support and the contract can reverse higher again from this level.

Natural gas (Rs 273.2)

The MCX natural gas contract is trading sideways between Rs 263 and Rs 281 in the past three weeks. As mentioned last week, the contract has to rise past Rs 281.6, the January 2010 high, to extend the current uptrend. Failure to breach Rs 281.6 can either keep the contract range-bound between Rs 263 and Rs 281, or can trigger a corrective fall to Rs 255 and Rs 245. Traders can avoid any fresh positions until a clear signal emerges. The medium-term trend is up, with strong supports at Rs 240 and Rs 220.

Zinc (Rs 126.9)

The MCX zinc futures contract has reversed sharply lower just below the key medium-term resistance at Rs 137. Immediate support is at Rs 126.5. If the contract declines below Rs 126.5, traders can go short with a stop-loss at Rs 129.5. The target on the downside will be Rs 121. If the contract extends the fall below Rs 121, it can touch Rs 117. Overall last week’s reversal is turning the outlook bearish. The contract has to breach Rs 137 decisively to turn the sentiment positive. Else it can remain in a broad sideways range between Rs 115 and Rs 137 in the coming months. Within this range, the bias is bearish, and the contract can breach Rs 115 and fall to Rs 105.

Lead (Rs 134.9)

The MCX lead contract has come off sharply from its high of Rs 144.65 in the last two weeks. A strong rise and a decisive close above Rs 140 is now required to turn the short-term outlook positive. Below Rs 140, the contract can fall to Rs 130 in the coming weeks. Short-term traders can take short position near Rs 140 with a strict stop-loss at Rs 142. For the medium-term, Rs 130 will be a key support level to watch out for. This level will set the medium-term trend.

Excess supply to keep aluminium price on leash

The demand from China for aluminium combined with an economic recovery in the developed markets, could increase the overall demand and help the metal price to recover.

The aluminium sector in India is in a slowdown phase. Data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics shows that aluminium consumption in India declined by 22 per cent in 2013 (till October) compared with an increase of 7.2 per cent and 6.4 per cent in 2012 and 2011 respectively. The metal’s production too declined. It was down by 23 per cent in 2013 compared with an increase of 3.3 per cent in 2012 and 3.1 per cent in 2011.

The aluminium market experienced surplus supply of 5.86 thousand tonnes in 2013.

GLOBAL SITUATION

Over supply could continue to keep the price lower for a while. However, if the economy recovers and demand increases, aluminium price can see a recovery going forward. Data from the International Aluminium Institute shows that the global production in 2013 was down by 4.9 per cent (January to November). However, production in China — the world’s leading producer of aluminium, was up slightly by 1.3 per cent for the same period. China accounts for over 40 per cent of global aluminium production and consumes around 45 per cent of the total production.

The demand from China for aluminium is expected to grow by 10 per cent in 2014. This, combined with an economic recovery in the developed markets, could increase the overall demand and help the aluminium price to recover.

Long-term view: The MCX aluminium (Rs 109.2) contract has been trading between Rs 62 and Rs 151 ever since it began its trading. The contract is likely to trade in this range only in the long-term. Important intermediate support is at Rs 90. A break below this support can take the contract to the lower end of the range. On the upside, Rs 125 is an important resistance. The contract has to breach this level to rise to Rs 151, the upper end of the range.

Medium-term view: The medium-term range for the contract is between Rs 96 and Rs 125. Within this range, the trend is down. Resistance is at Rs 118. Below this, the contract can move down to Rs 96, the lower end of the range. Intermediate support is at Rs 100.

Short-term view: The short-term trend is also down. The contract has come down sharply after rising to a high of Rs 130 in August.

The immediate resistance is at Rs 112 and short-term resistance is at Rs 115. Only a break above Rs 115 can reverse the trend. Immediate support is at Rs 106. A break below this support can take the contract lower to Rs 102 in the short-term.