LME PRICE AND WAREHOUSE STOCK APRIL 2014, LONDON METAL EXCHANGE.

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Barclays - China's April Commodity Imports Still Strong

Chinese import data for April suggest still-resilient domestic demand and likely corporate stocking of raw materials on low commodity prices, said Barclays Research.

According to Barclays, Chinese crude oil and copper saw double-digit import gains in value terms, while the volume of iron ore imports also saw double-digit rises, although value rose only 2.1%.

Automobile imports also maintained strong growth, rising by 33% in April. Overall, Barclays thinks the data support their view of a modest quarter-on-quarter growth recovery in the second quarter.

No Russian Troop Withdrawals Shows Latest Satellite Images.

Surprise: Putin punked everyone again.

But it's all good because the fake de-escalation allowed the rigged Dow Jones to close at a new all time high inspiring Americans full of "confidence" so they can go ahead and spend money they don't have to boost US Q2 GDP: after all it has a ways to go to hit Goldman's 3.9% quarterly target.

And now it's time to unleash the Kerry once again, who will explain all the "cost" nuances the Kremlin has missed for the past two months, and we get round X+1 of "de-escalation" headlines next week again which in turn pushed the DJIA to record-est highs. Rinse. Repeat.

Copper boosted by China trade data

COPPER futures closed higher on the London Metal Exchange, boosted by some solid trade data from top metals consumer China.

The LME's flagship three-month copper contract was up 1.1 per cent at US$ 6,729 a metric ton at the close.

China posted unexpected gains in both exports and imports for April, beating market estimates and adding up to a trade surplus of US$ 18.46 billion.

Its April copper, copper-products imports rose 52.5 per cent on the year to 450,000 tons.

"Chinese traders have clearly taken advantage once again of the low copper prices - the red metal dropped by 10 per cent in price for a time in March, losses that it has only partially been able to recoup in the meantime - to buy up material opportunistically," said analysts at Commerzbank AG.

China is the world's largest copper market, accounting for 40 per cent of the world's imports of the industrial metal.

Nickel at two-year high after Vale suspends Goro plant

Mining giant Vale SA (NYSE:VALE) suspended production at its New Caledonia's Goro nickel processing plant and mine due to an effluent spill,Reuters reported on Thursday.

The president of New Caledonia's Southern Province, Cynthia Ligeard, ordered Brazil's Vale, the world's second biggest nickel producer, to halt operations immediately, after an estimated 100,000 litres of effluent ended up in a creek, according to Radio New Zealand International (RNZI).

The provincial government and the environmental authority have sent a joint mission to evaluate the state of the US$6 billion plant.

Vale said in response the spill was due to a misconfiguration of the circuits transferring solution and he water quality of the creek is now back to normal.

The Goro mine had been targeting to produce about 40,000 tonnes of nickel this year, out of a total worldwide production of about two million tonnes.

Earlier this week Glencore Xstrata said output at its Koniambo mine, also in New Caledonia, had been disappointing, and that its 26,000-tonne production forecast for this year was being reviewed.

Nickel prices hit a two-year high in London Metal Exchange on Thursday morning, reaching $19,786, the biggest one-day gain in nearly four years, over supply concerns including Indonesia's ban on nickel early this year. 

According to Bloomberg Deutsche Bank analysts expect nickel to peak at $27,000 a metric ton in 2017.

Despite being one of the best-performing commodities this year, with prices rising over a third since January, nickel doesn't seem to be in the cards for diversified giant Anglo American (LON: AAL).

The miner said Thursday it is mulling the sale of its Brazilian nickel unit to Vale, the South American country’s largest miner, as part of its ongoing efforts to swing back to profit.

Newmont Mining may halt Indonesia operations

US giant Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) said Wednesday it expects to cease its Indonesian gold and copper operations in June due to unresolved issues over export permits.

The Indonesian government imposed an immediate 25% export tax in January for the country's copper concentrates, and it will increase to 35% on January 2015.

Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), which account for 97 % of Indonesia's copper output combined, said the rule conflicts with contracts they signed exempting them from new taxes and duties.

The Colorado,US-based miner is currently discussing with the government to complete the process of securing an initial export permit. The company has obtained registered exporter status from the Ministry of Trade in April, necessary milestone prior to receiving the permit.

Newmont is the world's third largest gold producer, supplying roughly 30% of its Indonesian copper concentrate output to the country's only copper smelter, PT Smelting at Gresik.

"This is a very unfortunate and difficult situation for all of us, as it will disrupt the lives of our 8,000 employees and contractors and impact thousands of more people in the Sumbawa Barat area who derive their incomes from our operation,” said Martiono Hadianto, president director of PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara in the statement.

Newmont's Batu Hijau copper and gold mine on the island of Sumbawa Barat began its operations in 2000. The company had forcasted copper concentrate output for 2014 at 110,000-125,000 tonnes before the new export rules.

The company has made it clear the ban is a pressing issue, which has already affected its ratings.

Indonesia, with a population of 240 million, is the world’s premier thermal coal exporter, a nickel, bauxite and tin powerhouse and is also rich in gold and copper.

U.S. Aluminum Imports Surge in March Lured by High Physical Prices

U.S. aluminum imports jumped in March with inflows from Russia climbing to the highest in over two years, U.S. data showed on Thursday, as an unprecedented gain in physical prices at the start of the year attracted material from Russia.

Some 264,100 tonnes of aluminum landed in the United States, a net importer of the metal, in March, the highest since August last year, up 11 percent from February and 14 percent higher than a year earlier.

The data is the strongest sign yet that merchants diverted metal to the region, lured by the sudden surge in premiums in January as banks, traders and consumers were caught short of metal and had to scramble for supplies. 

Premiums are paid on top of the benchmark London Metal Exchange price for physical delivery. Due to shipping times, the March data was the first to show a significant inflow.

"The jump in the premium is probably what drove imports in the first quarter. Most logically, it would have arrived in Baltimore so they (merchants) can sell it if needed," said a U.S. trader.

Inflows from Russia, the home of UC Rusal, the world's No. 1 producer, were particularly dramatic, partially reversing a years-long decline.

Over 44,000 tonnes arrived in the month, more than double March 2013 levels and up 52 percent from February. The total exceeded long-term monthly averages and was almost three times the monthly average of 16,000 tonnes last year, according to Reuters calculations.

Canada accounted for the biggest portion of the total as has been the case for years.

In the first two weeks of the year, the Midwest premium almost doubled to record highs near 20.5 cents per lb and are still close to those levels three months later.

The data will fuel the debate over the availability of metal even as the global market faces a 5-million-tonne surplus and as the LME struggles to solve a years-long crisis over its storage policy, which end users say have led to inflated physical prices and distorted supplies. 

It is not clear if the strong shipments continued in April - some traders say the subsequent surge in premiums in Europe and Asia closed the arbitrage, potentially limiting the amount of metal headed to the United States.

Even so, consumers, merchants and banks have continued to draw on domestic supplies. Stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses in the U.S. have slumped to 1.7 million tonnes, their lowest since June last year and down from 1.9 million in mid-January.

Traders say a portion of that may also have headed into storage outside of the exchange, rather than to end users, as part of financing deals that increase the perception of lower supplies.