Nifty's Movement On Union Budget Day In Past 1999-2014

Union Budget is just 4 trading days away, 
Below I have discussed Nifty range from 1999-2014(Previous Govt). 

Maximum Range on Budget day is 346 in 2009. 
Trade Cautiously. 

Copper Weekly Charts Shows It's Moving Towards $ 350-352

Why Google’s Skybox buy is worrying commodity investors

The data that it provides can result in unfair advantage to those with deeper pockets

Last month, Google acquired start-up firm Skybox Imaging for $500 million. The acquisition is considered a steal compared with the $19 billion that Facebook paid to own WhatsApp.

In buying the US firm cheap, Google has earned the wrath of commodity investors, particularly those who do not have deeper pockets.

The reason: they fear that Skybox’s satellite technology could result in the manipulation of the commodities market.

What’s so special?

What’s special about Skybox’s satellite technology? It plans to put a constellation of 15 satellites about 300 km above earth in two years’ time to take pictures of any part of the globe twice a day. In five years, the firm will have 24 satellites covering the breadth and width of the earth and will capture real-time videos of things, for example, a vehicle speeding through a highway.

The satellites will capture images of high resolution meant for commercial purposes. Currently, there are only nine satellites that can deliver images with such resolution but they are being utilised by the US security agencies for defence purposes.

The finer details

The advantage with such high resolution is that it can provide minute details of production, be it coal, iron ore or crude oil. For example, it can provide images of oil tankers that can tell us the pace of production by a particular country. The images can tell us the speed of an oil tanker movement by sea, giving indications of whether it will reach on time or be delayed.

Images from agricultural fields can provide details of how planting is progressing or what a crop’s health is.

Skybox currently has subscribers, including investors, for its data which include satellite imagery of oil shipments, pipeline activities and storage site.

According to the Wall Street Journal, an analyst at UBS has said that if he can buy satellite images of parking lots at Wal-Mart stores, he can project the company’s sales figures before the quarterly earnings report are announced.

Similarly, measurement of density of trucks outside Foxconn in Taiwan can let us know when the next iPhone is due.

Skybox can turn out to be the next in-thing that can have an impact across a spectrum of industries, starting from equities and commodities to corporate intelligence.

Experts point out to global positioning system (GPS) as an example for the Skybox’s potential. Initially, GPS was seen as a tool for defence purpose. Today, it has found varied uses, including movement of people and traffic.

Similarly, Skybox could lead to numerous apps and services, which, experts feel, no one can even think of now.

Skybox, according to its website, has plans to provide data and other services along with Google. It says it will revolutionise access to information. All these point to the potential for providing service at a fee.

Investors worried

These prospects have left many investors and market players worried. Last week, a US consumer protection body, Public Citizen, asked the US regulators to review the acquisition of Skybox. It said that the satellite technology could help manipulate commodity markets.

The watchdog said that satellite images of oil, gas and power infrastructure is already helping deep-pocketed firms such as banks and hedge funds gain advantage in trading intelligence.

Though other firms provide such data to traders, Google is seen gaining an unfair advantage through its huge customer base.

Public Citizen contends that Skybox’s technology could exacerbate the unfair advantage that already exists for bigger players in markets. Google and Skybox haven’t commented yet anything on this charge.

Besides this, charges of invasion of privacy have also been raised against Skybox. Along with the potential and Google’s scope to gain from a cheap buy, the unfolding scenario will be worth watching.

Lowering of STT, CTT unlikely

 

Transaction taxes on stocks and non-agro commodity trading are unlikely to be lowered in the Budget. If it happens, this will disappoint both the stock market and the commodity market. The stock market and its regulator SEBI wants Securities Transaction Tax to be lowered, while the commodity futures market and its regulator FMC appealed for complete removal or lowering of Commodity Transaction Tax.

However, considering the revenue constraints, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley may not oblige the exchanges. In the interim Budget, collection through STT in 2014-15 was estimated at ₹5,992 crore against collection of little over ₹5,000 crore in 2013-14.

There is no estimate available for Commodity Transaction Tax separately, which was introduced on non-agri commodities last July.

What's Wrong With This Picture?

It seems the bond market 'read' the report and the stock market skimmed the headlines...

What Happened The Last 4 Times Stocks Rallied For 23 Quarters?

The S&P 500 is in the 23rd quarter of its recovery - and shows a 196% gain.... the last four moves of similar magnitude ended very badly.

Australia losing 75,000 mining jobs in next two years

Between 50,000 and 75,000 mining jobs will be lost in Australia over the next couple of years as the industry's US$427 billion (A$450bn) investment on new capacity slows, research by the ANZ bank released on Wednesday shows.

According to the bank, the cuts will occur because the sector is switching from the job-heavy construction stage to the operational phase, which requires fewer workers.

Falling commodity prices, with both iron ore and coal tumbling this year, will also affect job creation and could see more positions go

Falling commodity prices, with both iron ore and coal tumbling this year, will also affect job creation and could see more positions go due to mining companies and suppliers efforts to cut operational costs.

Earlier this year Glencore (LON:GLEN) shut part of its Ravensworth coal mine because the operation was uneconomical. Brazil’s Vale (NYSE:VALE) followed closing its Integra Mine Complex for the same reasons. And they’re not alone, cut backs are going on throughout the whole sector.

This ANZ chart shows the strong relationship between resources investment and job creation. Taking into account resources extraction, which is increasingly becoming a volume game, resources investment, and commodity prices, the estimates are alarming.

By 2016 the bank expects resources investment (the blue line) to drop from about 7.5% of GDP to 4% — almost half in nearly three years. The yellow line, which shows employment related to resource investment, implies it will follow the blue line.

As a result, the bank's economists say there will be little improvement in the nation's 5.8% jobless rate.

ANZ senior economist corporate and commercial, Justin Fabo, was quoted by The Australian saying that weaker than expected commodity prices would likely increase the risks to more job losses as mining firms seek to cut costs.

"So we think the unemployment rate will be in spitting distance of six percent over the next 12 months, and for improvement after that to be gradual," he said.

The Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency estimates there are 263,000 jobs in the resources industry, which represented an 80% increase over five years.