China's May Lead imports drop; Alloy imports hold up

China only imported 6 tons of refined lead in May, Customs data show, as lead supply in China was ample and import prices for the metal were considered high.

The import volume in the first five months of this year slumped 80.46% year-on-year to 94 tons.

Lead alloy imports, in contrast, hit 1,740 tons in May and amounted to 13,000 tons for the first five months of the year, boosted by robust demand at home.

Food inflation - Since QE3, Breakfast Is Up Over 24%

Having pointed out the 'surges' in the cost of your 4th of July burger at the behest of Greenspan and Bernanke, we thought a reflection on the soaring costs of 'the most important meal of the day' were in order. As the following chart illustrates in words and pictures even a PhD Fed economist or CNBC pretend-economist could understand - food-inflation is here from breakfast through dinner (no matter how many iPads we try and eat).

What's Your Trading Brain Type ?

Five Types

To summarize, there are five general brain types. Among traders and investors, the three most important brain types are Compulsive, Impulsive and Anxious.

Left Brain - Right Brain

People with Compulsive Brains tend to get stuck in a particular thought about the market. “It’s too high.” “It’s too manipulated.” “It’s too risky.” It’s too…” whatever. People with Compulsive Brains tend to operate entirely on their own terms and are generally not open to feedback or other options.  

People with Impulsive Brains are the exact opposite. They are unpredictable and lack impulse control in trading/investing and in daily life. Without much discipline, they start many more projects than they finish. They live for creativity and for what’s possible.

People with Anxious Brains live with a rain cloud overhead.  They pay more attention to the obstacles to their own success (or the success of others) than to the ways that something might work. They don’t like to try new things and don’t appreciate novelty.

The fourth type is the Depressed Brain. These people tend to feel victimized by the market. They have a ‘Rodney Dangerfield’ mentality, believing that they never get a break or a fair shake. They blame the Fed, the robots, the news, company management, or whatever for their investing and trading troubles. This type of thinking rationalizes and justifies their pre-existing mood.   

The fifth type is a combination of Compulsive and Impulsive. These folks tend to be compulsively impulsive, which may mean that they have an addictive relationship to the market and to trading. They overtrade because they are trading-to-trade, like a mouse pressing a lever to generate pleasure signals in their brains.

Free Quiz

If you are curious about your brain type, you may download a free Brain Type Self-Assessment HERE.

McClellan Sounds "Alarm" Over Stock Market Drawdowns

Alarming Sign in NDX Stocks’ Drawdown

July 03, 2014

The Nasdaq 100 Index is making new multi-year highs, levels not seen since the weeks just after the 2000 Internet Bubble top.  But it is interesting for us to see that the average component stock in that index is down 7% from its trailing 52-week high. 

And that 7% drawdown number is actually smaller than it has been recently, but it is still not back to the low drawdown reading of 6.0% that we saw in early March, before the Nasdaq 100 stocks got into a patch of trouble.  And the fascinating point is that divergences like this tend to be really important for the long-run picture for stock prices.

This current divergence is not guaranteed to stay with us.  It looks like a genuine divergence now, but it is still possible that we could see a continued rally that takes the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 collectively up closer to the level of their 52-week closing highs, thereby closing the gap on this measure of average drawdown.  But for now, the message is that the average stock making up the Nasdaq 100 Index is not confirming the bullish message of the NDX’s higher price highs. 

A similar message comes from a similar indicator, this time examining the 30 stocks which make up the DJIA. 

This one looks at the 30 stocks that make up the DJIA, and checks each one to see if its Price Oscillator is above or below zero.  What we are seeing lately is a declining number of Dow components participating in the uptrend that way, and a drop of this indicator below its 15-day moving average.  This condition also comes as a divergence appears between prices and the indicator.

As with the NDX stocks’ indicator above, the divergence does not absolutely have to persist; the market could just power through it, but that is not usually the way things usually work out.

Via Tom McClellan via NTMarkets

US Sales To Russia Hit Record High After Sanctions

While it is all too easy to show the massive outperformance of Russian stocks (even after Carney's "sell" recommendation) as evidence that US sanctions were not 'punishing' as the mainstream media might suggest; this week's release of trade data shows the utter farce that the so-called "costs" imposed on Putin actually are. As WSJ reports, despite all the scaremongery and sanctioning, US exports to Russia in May hit $1.2 billion - a record high (up 21% from pre-sanctions). That will certainly teach them!!

As WSJ reports,

U.S. efforts to penalize Russia for its actions in Ukraine appear to have done little to stem exports of U.S. goods to the country.

The U.S. announced targeted sanctions against several Russian companies and individuals in March, but U.S. trade data published Thursday shows exports to the country were the highest on record at $1.2 billion in May.

The sanctions, organized with Europe and other major industrialized nations over Moscow’s alleged actions to destabilize its former client state, sparked investor flight out of Russia, led the ruble to tumble and pushed the economy into a recession. Russian markets have since recovered somewhat, but investors have been wary of an escalation in the sanctions battle.

Demand for U.S. products apparently hasn’t been hit, however, and in fact jumped 21% from the previous month.

So much for those sanctions - need moar targeted sectoral ones to really teach them a lesson (oh wait - what about the boomerang?)

Nifty's Movement On Union Budget Day In Past 1999-2014

Union Budget is just 4 trading days away, 
Below I have discussed Nifty range from 1999-2014(Previous Govt). 

Maximum Range on Budget day is 346 in 2009. 
Trade Cautiously. 

Copper Weekly Charts Shows It's Moving Towards $ 350-352