Weekly Economic Data for the week 26-Jul-14 to 01-Aug-14

You can get the same Economic Calendar at https://www.dynamiclevels.com/report/economic-calendar.

Exp.:	Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior:	Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today:	Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year:	Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price:	This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below: Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual:	Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.

Data for the week 26-Jul-14 to 01-Aug-14

Date	Time (IST)	Country	Data	Exp.	Prior	Exp. chg today	Avg. chg of last 1 year	Exp. Impact on Price
28-Jul-2014	09-00 PM	United States	Federal Reserve Board Meeting on Discount Rates					Neutral
29 - 31 Jul-2014	--	United States	Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting					Neutral
29-Jul-2014	07-30 PM	United States	Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	85.5	85.2	0.30	2.48	Neutral
30-Jul-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Confidence	-8.4	-8.4	0.00	1.05	Neutral
30-Jul-2014	06-00 PM	United States	GDP Annualized QoQ	3%	-2.9%	5.90%	0.45	Very Good
30-Jul-2014	08-00 PM	United States	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change	--	-3.969	3.97	3.45	Neutral
30-Jul-2014	11-30 PM	United States	FOMC Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.00%	0.00	Neutral
31 -Jul-2014	11-30 AM	United Kingdom	Nationwide House PX MoM	0.5%	1%	-0.50		Neutral
31-Jul-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Unemployment Rate	11.6%	11.6%	0.00%	0.12	Neutral
31-Jul-2014	08-00 PM	United States	EIA Natural Gas Storage change	--	90	-90.00	33.60	Neutral
01-Aug-2014	06-30 AM	China	Manufacturing PMI	51.3	51	0.30	0.77	Neutral
01-Aug-2014	07-15 AM	China	HSBC China Manufacturing PMI	51.9	52	-0.10	0.97	Neutral
01-Aug-2014	09-00 AM	Japan	BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks at Research Institute of Japan					Neutral
01-Aug-2014	10-30 AM	India	HSBC India Services PMI	-	51.5	-51.50		Neutral
01-Aug-2014	03-30 PM	European Monetary Union	ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment					Neutral
01-Aug-2014	06-00 PM	United States	Nonfarm Payrolls	231K	288K	-57.00	43.00	Neutral
01-Aug-2014	06-00 PM	United States	Unemployment Rate	6.10%	6.10%	0.00%	0.13	Neutral
01-Aug-2014	07-25 PM	United States	Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	81.5	81.3	0.20	2.48	Neutral
01-Aug-2014	07-30 PM	United States	ISM Manufacturing PMI	56	55.3	0.70	1.35	Neutral

German industry would support "100 percent" tougher sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis

German industry would support "100 percent" tougher sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis, the chairman of a major business lobby, the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations, said Friday.

Punitive measures now being considered by the EU would hurt German businesses, but "if there is a price to pay then we will pay it," the chairman, Eckhardt Cordes, told the business daily Handelsblatt.

Cordes, who has so far spoken out against sanctions, said the situation had changed with the downing a passenger jet over eastern Ukraine, which Western powers have blamed on pro-Moscow rebels.

The handling of the disaster had been an "act of inhumanity", said Cordes, the former CEO of retail group Metro, who spoke of "disturbing conduct of separatists rummaging through corpses."

The committee, which represents more than 6,000 German companies with business links to Russia, had previously warned sanctions would risk many of the 350,000 related German jobs.

In the latest interview, Cordes criticised Russian President Vladimir Putin for supporting the rebels in the former Soviet satellite state.

"If Putin continues along this path then this is not the path of German industry," he said.

"It is now urgently necessary that he asserts his influence over the separatists, and if he doesn't have any influence than he better get some."

Gold Trends: 2014 & Beyond

Source: Visual Capitalist

11.7% Of The World's At War: Global Geopolitical Risk Mapped

You can be forgiven for thinking that the world is a pretty terrible place right now, exclaims JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest. With 11.7% of the world's population currently at war (and a considerably larger percentage seemingly on the verge), it seemed an appropriate time to summarize the main geopolitical risk points in the world.

Deutsche Bank warns Geopolitical Risks Remain High

As Cembalest notes, the list is long... and growing

The downing of a Malaysian jetliner in eastern Ukraine and escalating sanctions against Russia, the Israeli invasion of Gaza, renewed fighting in Libya, civil wars in Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia, Islamist insurgencies in Nigeria and Mali, ongoing post-election chaos in Kenya, violent conflicts in Pakistan, Sudan and Yemen, assorted mayhem in central Africa, and the situation in North Korea, described in a 2014 United Nations Human Rights report as having no parallel in the contemporary world. Only in Colombia does it look like a multi-decade conflict is finally staggering to its end.

For investors, strange as it might seem, such conflicts are not affecting the world’s largest equity markets very much (for now). Perhaps this reflects the small footprint of war zone countries within the global capital markets and global economy, other than through oil production.

While markets maybe ignorant of the risk flares, economies are not as today's durable goods orders in the US show, even the cleanest dirty shirt is starting to get soiled.

Central America's Largest Nickel Mine Resumes Operation after 30 Years of Shutdown

Fenix mine, the largest nickel mine in Central America has resumed its operation after long years of shut down.

 The authorities took the decision amid violent clashes between the natives and security forces, disputes relating the land ownership and current lawsuits for murder and gang rape reported there.

The largest nickel mine in Guatemala has been shut down for 30 years. It was inaugurated by the president Otto Pérez during his recent visit to the site. He called the mine as the biggest investment in the history of the nation.

Years of alleged killings, intimidation, violence, harassment and evictions of Q’eqchi’ people in the Fenix region made hindrance to the mining operations there. Some of the people filed lawsuits for getting legal title of their land.

At present, three lawsuits are ongoing for the 2007 gang rapes allegedly committed by company security, the army and police, for 2009 murder of Q’eqchi’ man Adolfo Ich Chaman and for shooting German Chub allegedly committed by company security.  

The Fenix mine is one of the largest nickel mines in Guatemala, located in El Estor in Izabal Department.The mine has mineral deposits of about 36.1 million tonnes of ore grading 1.86% nickel

Goldman predicts copper market surplus, prices to fall to $6,200/mt over 12 months

Goldman Sachs in its latest research note on commodities, released yesterday, states that the global copper market is likely to witness a surplus of around 350,000 to 500,000 mt over 2014-’15. Also, copper prices are likely to fall to lows of $6,200/mt over a period of twelve months.

According to Goldman Sachs, the copper market is likely to remain in surplus in 2014 and 2015. This is despite considering the strong demand growth expectations from non-Chinese markets and the anticipated capacity cuts at copper smelters around the world. The copper prices are expected to fall to $6,600/mt over the next three months. The prices may further fall to $6,400/mt on a six-month horizon. Over the next 12 months, the prices may reach levels as low as $6,200/mt.

The investment banks notes that there are several negative factors that weigh on the copper industry. One of these factors is the overdependence of the commodity on Chinese property market. The bank anticipates the Chinese real estate market to remain bearish in 2014 and 2015. The underperformance of the property market may keep the copper prices under pressure.

Secondly, the Chinese copper financing deals have shifted large volumes of physical copper from markets on to bonded warehouses. It may require at least 6 to 12 months for the situation to ease.

Consequently, the copper average price forecast for 2015 is being lowered from $6,600/mt to $6,400/mt and that for 2016 is being lowered from $7,000/mt to $6,600/mt.

Aluminium Production Shows Slight Decline, Still Close To All Time Highs: IAI

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) stated that world aluminium market has showed again a slight decline in production. But, rising demand for aluminium made some relief in the month of June and that was close to all time highs.

IAI data showed that the production of primary aluminium in the month of June 2014 was about 4.303 million tonnes and that of May was about 4.331 million tonnes. Even though, it reported a slight decline, when calculating on year-on-year basis production figures have some improvements. It says that the aluminium production increased 1.8 pct on YoY basis in the month of June.

In the month of March, the aluminium production figure was at record highs of about 4.406 million tonnes. June month production has gained by 1.8 pct of last year figure 4.224 million tonnes. China is the main contributor in world aluminium production by producing a total of 1.95 million tonnes in June. In China May month production was around 1.898 million tonnes.

This implies that the China shares 45.31 pct in the world aluminium production. On YoY, production in China has increased by 6 pct, when compared to 1.84 million tonnes produced in June 2013. The unreported Chinese aluminium production is estimated about 250000 tonnes.

In the month of June 2014, production in Asian countries including China was about 193000 tonnes, when compared to 203000 tonnes produced in May 2014. IAI also noted that the production in the GCC region has also reported an appreciation. The net aluminium production in GCC in June was about 412000 tonnes, increased by 26 pct from 327000 tonnes in June 2013.