Tuesday, September 9, 2014
Monday, September 8, 2014
About 20% of Chile’s largest copper mines closed or reconverted by 2025
Close to 20% of Chile’s largest copper mines will be closed or reconverted by 2025, as the country faces a challenging scenario, marked by falling ore grades at its aging mines, sliding copper price and rising costs.
While the country produced 5.8 million tons of copper last year, 20% of that figure (1.2 million tons) came from operations that are facing closure or conversion in the next 10 years.
According to local paper El Mercurio (in Spanish), while the country produced 5.8 million tons of copper last year, 20% of that figure (1.2 million tons) came from operations that are facing closure or conversion in the next 10 years.
But there is a way out for the world’s largest copper producer, which also holds the largest reserves of the red metal. The key seems to be investing in reconversion projects focused on mining sites redevelopment to create new commercial possibilities.
The problem, notes the article, is that most miners believe now is not the best time to start such projects. What is worse: carrying on current activities may make them even more difficult to execute in just a couple of years.
Some official figures reinforce the pessimism. According to the country’s Mining Council, 43% of the global copper producers will be generating higher ore grades than Chile by 2020.
$105 billion to the rescue
But according to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), investments are picking up and will provide the sector the push it needs. The mining industry, says the body’s latest report, will invest $105 billion in mining projects across the country between 2014 and 2023.
Of the total investment, $81 billion are set to go towards the copper industry, while $23 billion will be used for gold, silver, iron ore another industrial mineral projects.
The massive investment will also include $28 billion in allocated funds for Codelco, the state-owned copper mining company, for new mines and the expansion of one of its major projects.
No trust issues
“Certain projects are currently facing delays,” Cochilco executive VP Sergio Hernández told Business News Americas last month.
The reasons for some projects to be running behind schedule, he said, are a mix of delays in securing permits and difficulties meeting new environmental and social standards.
Panoramic of Codelco's new 160,000 tonnes-plus Ministro Hales mine.
He also noted that a number of projects included in last year's portfolio have since gone online. These include Codelco's Ministro Hales, Lumina Copper's (CVE:LCC) Caserones and KGHM International's (TSX:QUX) Sierra Gorda mines.
“There are no trust issues here; mining investors are confident. No project has fallen through,” Hernández added.
Mining investments in Chile will feature 14 companies that are looking to implement medium or large-scale mining projects in the country for the first time, according to Cochilco’s report.
The planned investment will also include nine new mining projects with an estimated investment of $8.9 billion, seven of which are copper operations.
Cochilco said once all projects are completed, the country’s copper production would exceed 6 million tons by 2015 and 8 million tons by 2025. Gold production is expected to rise as well, increasing by 191% to 149,480kg a year.
Sunday, September 7, 2014
Why to trade in Nifty Future instead of Stock Future
You do not have to diversify with multiple stocks for equity exposure, the index is already diversified.
The risk of any one stock having something catastrophic happen will not really hurt your trade. No one stock has more than a 3% weighting.
The Nifty Future is much harder to manipulate than individual stocks due to its size and volume of trading.
Nifty Future move much more smoothly around support and resistance areas than most individual stocks.
Nifty 50 has its own survivor bias replacing it holding of falling stocks with new ones that are growing in market capitalization.
You do not have to deal with earnings surprises like in individual stocks.
Due to the indexes much lower volatility you can trade larger position sizes with much less risk.
The Nifty options are very liquid with very tight big ask spreads.
With this index you can trade the trend of the stock market itself which is a much broader bet than any one company or sector.
Margin required for trading Nifty Future is quiet less as compared to Stock Futures
Nifty 2014 based on 2009 Election move
Using the Similarity in Price Action of Year 2009 we are trying to analyse the way forward for Nifty in remaining of 2014
Bulls have been riding the Dalal street from Feb Month and got in momentum after May 16 election results. Analyst on Streets have been talking about 8500/9000 odd levels and every dip coming in market is getting bought into.
I tried to analyse the chart of Nifty from 2009 after election results and interesting study came out.
After 2009 election as seen in below chart Nifty saw 2 UC’s followed by a period of upward sloping from consolidation between two trend-lines and then the upside breakout. The post pattern above the breakout resulted in move towards 123.6% of the channel width which formed an important top @ 6336 and than 1000 point correction in Nifty.
2014 Scenario
In 2014 scenario also after the rise on 16 May Nifty is trading in sharp rise on Election result day followed by period of upward sloping consolidation with an upside breakout. So if we are applying the Election time concept properly the upside target projecting 100 % of channel @ 8240 and in maximum case 123.6% of channel will come near 8340. So except some major top to be formed in this range and we can expect a decent correction.
Gann's Financial Table Still Working
Gann did respect cycles. The cycles of human nature, boom bust boom, so where are we now based on Gann Financial Calendar.
Learn more about Gann here.
The funny tihng is that the table below was built before 1930s, and like any cycle study it tends to correlate well most of the time. The last 20 years it gets a mark above 80% so it worth 60 seconds of your life to learn about it. Like many living cycle master today, many are forecasting doom over the next few years (Charles Nenner, Martin Armstrong, Dan Ferrera) and the Gann Financial Calendar is no different.
Hey, if you see clouds on the horizon, you do tend to get rain!
Matched to the SP500
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote...
"After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the Law of Vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points to which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time. The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the Street is aware either." ~ William D Gann
"Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected." ~ George Soros
Stocks Have Reached A Permanently High Plateau
Stocks Have Reached a Permanently High Plateau
A permanently high plateau of stock prices is a marvelous innovation.
Somebody said this before, of course, but one glance at a chart of the S&P 500 tells us that stock prices have
reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. How can we identify a
permanently high plateau? One sign is price never touches the 50-week
moving average (MA), much less the 200-week MA: prices just keep
marching higher in a volatility-free permanently rising plateau.
reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. How can we identify a
permanently high plateau? One sign is price never touches the 50-week
moving average (MA), much less the 200-week MA: prices just keep
marching higher in a volatility-free permanently rising plateau.
It's almost like a film set, where the special effects department (i.e. the Financial Singularity) has been called in to get rid of pesky volatility and fluctuations.
Memo to Head Office: Done. The MACD indicator has been locked into a permanently high plateau as price marches higher in an orderly fashion.
A permanently high plateau of stock prices is a marvelous innovation: you can practically set your watch to the steady tick of new all-time highs, and all you need to plan your retirement or cash-out of your stock options is a ruler and a pencil--just extend the price line as far forward as you want, and calculate your wealth.
The only downside of this permanently high plateau of stock prices is that it eliminates the need for the financial punditry and the workforce of money managers. With bearish influences and volatility both eradicated, there is nothing left to talk about except the upward slope of the permanent plateau.
As for money management--for most people, there's no need to play around trying to beat the index by a tiny percentage: just lock your money up in a index fund and watch it grow, month after boring month, year after boring year.
The Federal Reserve's testimony to Congress will be boringly predictable: "stock prices continue to rise in an upward sloping permanently high plateau." Congress and the Fed will congratulate their outstanding management of the economy, and once behind closed doors, congratulate the Special Effects crew for their fine work maintaining the permanently high plateau.
Our permanently high plateau of stock prices greatly simplifies life. If you own enough of the stock market, you can calculate your wealth next year and order a new private jet right now, because you know you'll be $25 million richer by then.
And of course the economy will thrive on this steadily rising permanently high plateau because those new private jets will need to be manufactured and maintained, and small airports in wealthy enclaves will need to add space for the new private jets.
Let's face it: this permanently high plateau of stock prices is financial nirvana. Permanently high plateau has such a nice ring to it, doesn't it? Let's say it three times just for the pleasure of the alliteration: permanently high plateau, permanently high plateau, permanently high plateau.
Sourced from Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
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