The Carnage Continues - Middle East Stock Markets Are Bloodbath-ing

Following Friday's US weakness and UAE's hint that $40 oil is coming next, the crude carnage continues as Middle East markets are crashing. As WSJ reports, the bearish direction of oil prices again spooked investors in Dubai where the DFM General Index finished down 7.6%, extending Thursday’s 7.4% rout. The bloodbath extended across the entire region with Abu Dhabi down 3.6%, Qatar slid 5.9%, Kuwait fell 2.9%, and Saudi Arabia’s market, the largest bourse in the region, retreated 3.3%.

Bloodbath-ing...

As one analyst warned:

"the severity of this decline could very well be explained by investors covering margin calls as leverage was used on the way up over the past year."

And shows no signs of stopping...

Charts: Bloomberg

The Crude Crash Comes To Wall Street: Counterparty Risks Rear Their Ugly Heads Again

In late 2006, default rates on lower-rate subprime private MBS began to rise considerably. Though not a very transparent market to the mainstream media-watching world, bankers knew trouble was brewing as this had not happened before in such a benign house price decline. Banks, knowing what they had on their books, what they had sold to others, and what that meant for risk, began quietly buying protection on other banks as counterparty risk became a daily worry for desks across Wall Street.

The stocks of US financials continued to rise amid "contained" and "no problem" comments from the status quo but credit spreads for the major US banks kept leaking wider even as stocks rallied... then reality dawned on stocks and the rest is history.

Today, US financial credit spreads (wider) have decoupled once again from stocks (higher) and that divergence began as oil prices started to slump.

Are banks hedging counterparty risk once more 'knowing' what loans and exposures they have to the massively levered US oil industry? Or is it different this time?

Japan Aluminium stocks hit record high on increased imports

Aluminium stocks held at three major Japanese ports rose for an eighth straight month to hit a record high at the end of November on rising imports and softer demand at home.

Aluminium stocks held at Yokohama, Nagoya and Osaka rose 14 percent in November from a month earlier to 378,000 tonnes, the highest level in data going back to April 2000, trading house Marubeni Corp said on Friday.

"An increased number of aluminium ingots are coming to Japan to look for buyers amid slowing demand elsewhere in Asia as China steps up exports of cheaper aluminium products to neighbouring countries," said a Tokyo-based trader, who declined to be named.

Japan's import of aluminium ingot rose 16 percent to 1.43 million tonnes in the January-October period from the same period in 2013, according to the country's trade data.

The inventory increase also reflects slowing demand in Japan as consumption and exports remain weak, another trader said.

The world's third-largest economy has unexpectedly slipped into recession. Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank an annualised 1.6 percent in the July-September quarter after plunging 7.3 percent the previous quarter following a rise in sales taxes that clobbered consumer spending.

Recent economic data have also remained weak with falling machinery orders and inflation expectations, depressed sentiment in a government "economy watchers" survey and feeble capital-spending plans. 

What Do Falling Oil Prices Mean for Copper?

Oil prices have taken a dive this year, and far from occurring in a vacuum, that poor performance is likely to have a ripple effect on other commodities. Copper, which has been sitting below the $3 mark lately, is just one metal that could be vulnerable to the effects of weak oil prices.

As a recent article from Bloomberg explains, energy needs make up as much as 50 percent of the production costs for metals. That means cheaper oil should lead to lower production costs, which in turn should allow copper producers to hold up a bit better against falling prices.

Michael Haigh, head of commodities research at SocGen, told the publication, “[t]here’s been a structural change in oil, and there’s more to come. This will also ripple through other commodity markets, in some cases directly, and others indirectly.”

Remaining profitable

The ability to stay resilient under difficult conditions isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Although seeing copper at $2.90 might be uncomfortable for many base metals investors, it’s worth noting that plenty of copper projects will still stay afloat at those prices.

Back at the start of September — when oil prices were still a little higher than they are now — Stefan Ioannou of Haywood Securities told Copper Investing News that even higher-cost producers were still managing to stay profitable at $3 copper, and suggested that copper “would probably have to drop below the $2.50 range before impacting existing production associated with the upper end of the copper cash cost curve.”

Copper supply and demand

However, there’s another side to that issue that’s worth mentioning — falling costs can create a supply problem. In theory, lower prices for any commodity should shut out higher-cost producers, restricting supply and eventually driving prices up. However, if production costs keep going down as well, and demand doesn’t increase, all that supply stays on the market, and the bottom keeps moving lower and lower. That’s what’s happened with coal, according to Joe Aldina of Wood Mackenzie, who gives a good overview of the issue here.

Still, although some have pointed to a growing copper surplus, others are not so sure. While copper prices certainly haven’t had a breakout year, issues such as ramp up delays, growing impurities in copper concentrate and demand indicators are all factors worth considering.

Certainly, the teams at Thomson Reuters GFMS and the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) are still predicting a surplus in the near term, but those positive on copper are quick to note that the ICSG has drastically cut its forecast. In any case, investors will certainly be keeping an eye out to see how cheap oil will affect copper miners.

As of 5:15 p.m. EST on Wednesday, copper was trading at $2.895 per pound.

Glencore forecasts nickel deficit

Kenny Ives, the Director of Glencore nickel commodities department, stated that, the global market of nickel will slide down from 20,000 million tonnes surplus, which went throughout the year 2014, to a balanced trading by the year 2015, and then followed by uprising deficit. With the help of a presentation, Ives explained that, if the export ban by Indonesia will remain to be intact, the metal will soon be in deficit,. In the presentation, he directed the annual growth of demand from the year 2014 to 2019, as 4.5 percent, and at the same time the growth of production was shown as 1 percent, during the same period of time.

The nickel demand growth will increase every year by 4.5 percent, and by the year 2018, the metal will enter into steady deficit, according to the forecasts. He also added that, the price of nickel has not been steady in the years 2014, as at the beginning of the year, the price lingered around about 13,000 dollars per tonne, and by the month of May, the price of the metal hiked up nearly 50 percent to 21,200 dollars per tonne. And by the month of September, along with the value of other commodities declined down to 18,000 dollars per tonne.
The hike in nickel prices was mainly due to the ban imposed by Indonesia, the largest supplier of nickel, on the export of unprocessed ore from the country, which created a sense of anticipation of the decline of the nickel output. Any ways by the end of the year, the Chinese exports, and the export of ore from the Philippines and the macro economic downgrades, led to the decline of the metal.

The matter of an increase in the exports of nickel ore from the Philippines is not possible at the point because, the country has kisser resources than Indonesia. The shipments of nickel ore from the company, would certainly decline by the coming months as the monsoon season in the country would prove to be a barrier for the transportation of ore.

It's Different This Time... Rig-Count Edition

In July 2008, crude oil prices peaked and began to fall quickly. After 2 months they had dropped 30%, but being the smartest extrapolators in the room, producers piled on the rig count driving it higher and higher until around 5 months after oil prices peaked... the rig count completely collapsed. Today, it has now been almost 6 months since oil peaked and began its accelerating free-fall and rig counts have just started to drop (still 2% above the June peak oil levels)...  

There is always a lag... and with permits down 40%, let's just see if it's different this time...

Of course, it's different this time... it's way worse! All these rigs are backed by massive debt loads at drastically lower costs of funding than is possible now... but we should ignore that, right?

Turn a 200kt copper surplus into 1.6mt deficit in 3 easy slides

Glencore says 2015 supply forecasts are way too optimistic and the Swiss giant has the charts and tables to prove it

The copper industry has a long history of supply disruptions.

Typical disruptions associated with adverse weather, technical problems, power shortages or labour activity make forecasting a tough proposition.

To these variables add more recent factors affecting future supply which includes the fall in the price to near four-year lows which makes it difficult for miners to raise development finance (or raise wages for that matter).

That leads to project deferrals, commissioning delays and changes to mine plans and partly explains why the International Copper Study Group's benchmark forecast for 2014 swung from a 400,000 tonne surplus in April to a 300,000 tonne shortage just six months later.

While there's consensus for a small deficit this year, in 2015 even the most skeptical of analysts predict an oversupplied market and a concomitant fall in the price.

Not so fast says Telis Mistakidis, Glencore's copper chief.

Glencore is the world's third largest global mined copper producer and the world’s largest copper supplier.

The Swiss company relies on copper for 38% of its earnings (vs 20% at BHP Billiton and only 10% at Rio Tinto) so it has a lot riding on the outlook for the red metal.

Glencore's presentation to investors in London contained these three slides that shows just how vulnerable the copper supply chain can be:

Written by Frik Els