Report: 2016 is start of new gold bull cycle

Disappointing jobs and manufacturing data out of the US coupled with a sagging dollar sent the gold price on a tear Wednesday with the metal surging past the psychologically important $1,200 an ounce level and back into positive territory for the year.

A new report by Metals Focus – Gold Focus 2015 – forecasts a bottom in the price of gold this year with a rising trend in 2016 after three years of declines.

Short term the London-based research firm expects further price weakness in the coming months and a low for the year at $1,080 which would constitute a more than 5-year low. Metals Focus' estimated annual average of $1,190 would mark a 6% decline compared to last year.

The actual start of US interest rate increases will – paradoxically – mark the turning pointing

"The biggest headwind continues to be expectations of US interest rate increases later this year, as other developed economies’ ultra-loose monetary policies (notably the Eurozone’s) remain in place, this helping to drive
up the dollar against other currencies. Low inflation, weak commodity prices and strong equities are other factors that should keep gold under pressure," says Metals Focus in its 88-page review.

The firm also believes that the actual start of US interest rate increases will – paradoxically – temper the pressure that expectations of a rise had placed on the price and mark the turning pointing.

Shortly after the  first Fed action in six years gold will start appreciating according to the report which is "premised on our expectation that these increases will be slow and modest, leaving real rates in negative territory for some time to come."

From 2016 onwards, there are several plausible arguments to be made to provide the spark for a renewed gold bull market according to the report:

While Western investor interest in gold remains low, selling pressure is likely to ease further from the already much-reduced level of liquidations seen in 2014.

Meanwhile, Asian investment demand for physical gold is expected to recover from last year’s slump. In addition potentially gold-friendly developments in debt, inflation, foreign exchange, commodity and equity markets and the scope for a far more malign environment for international relations should also boost the price.

Sourced :- Frik Els of MINING.com

Gold price leaps past $1,200 on safe haven buying

Amid nervousness on US bond and equity markets which are back in negative territory for the year and a spike in oil prices sparked by chaos in the Middle East gold leaped past the psychologically important $1,200 an ounce level on Thursday.

Gold for delivery in June – the most active futures contract – gained $21.76 or 1.8% hitting a high of $1,219.76 early on, before pulling back in early afternoon trade in New York to around $1,206 an ounce, still a three-week high.

The gold price is up more than 6% after dropping to a 2015 low of $1,148.20 an ounce last week and has now retraced almost 40% of its losses since the 2015 high above $1,300 reached in January.

Nervous investors piled into gold following a second day of sharp gains for the oil price to above $50 a barrel after top producer Saudi-Arabia launched airstrikes in Yemen against Iranian-backed militias that have taken over large swathes of the country.

With Egypt being drawn into the conflict on the Arabian Peninsula, the prospects for another protracted ground war in the region becomes more likely.

Gold also received support from a weaker dollar in early trade, but the greenback reversed course later in the day to within shouting distance of fresh 12-year highs. Gold and the dollar usually move in opposite directions.

The US Dollar Index is up 21% compared to this time last year and the past year has been the greenback's strongest run on a rolling 12-month period since 1973.

A new report by the World Gold Council that examines the complex relationship between the gold price and the world's reserve currency showed gold prices rise twice as much during weak dollar periods than they fall when the dollar strengthens.

Given that many analysts believe the dollar rally may be entering the final stretch, gyrations in the value of the currency could set up the gold price for a period of substantial upside.

Morgan Stanley Copper Price Outlook

The copper price has started to bounce back from its drastic fall at the start of the year, climbing more than 6 percent over the past month. However, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has cut its 2015 price forecast for the metal by roughly 16 percent, to $5,945 per tonne, on the back of lackluster demand from China.

The firm remains convinced that base metals will outperform bulk commodities such as coal, but in a report it expresses concern that seasonal demand from China has failed to pick up as expected. In the report, analysts Tom Price and Joel Crane state that far from expanding trade in response to “a growing list of government approved property and infrastructure projects,” the metals processing industry in China “remains dormant” and is “actually sidelining capacity.”

"With only months left before the mid-year peak in sales of commodity-intensive goods, time is running out for China to support commodity prices in 2015,” the note reads. Certainly, Morgan Stanley isn’t alone in making that observation — the Financial Times8 pointed to an absence of increased demand earlier this month, and also noted that imports fell to their lowest since 2011 for February.

Still, Morgan Stanley also notes that the red metal is slowly recovering after recording the biggest fall of all the base metals during the last quarter of 2014. It chalks up copper’s fall to a reaction to collapsing crude oil10 prices, and also to “aggressive China-based hedge fund selling.”

"Once the oil price discovered a floor in late-Jan, copper’s largely unchanged tight mining fundamentals supported a price rally,” the firm states. Furthermore, it notes that while global exchange inventories have risen about 11 percent over the past three months, there are indications that “copper’s short-term fundamentals have actually improved a little.”

Supply/demand predictions

That said, the firm stresses in the note that the market will have to wait and see what happens in terms of Chinese demand when it comes to predicting an outcome for the copper price. So far, the meter could move either way.

Bloomberg notes that China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to an 11-month low of 49.2 for March, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while Morgan Stanley states that key power grid investment data came in at a two-year low for the first two months of the year. That said, Morgan Stanley points out that China’s state grid chairman recently announced that investment may by increased by 21 percent year-over-year, upping expectations for increased spending.

Taking a look at the supply side of things, Morgan Stanley believes that it will “expect ongoing supply disappointments, simply because it is a feature of the industry.” For instance, Indonesian exports remain at risk politically — especially in the wake of Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE:FCX) production halt at Grasberg — and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) has cut Kennecott’s supply outlook. Still, the firm is also watching other projects that could drive mine supply growth, such as MMG’s (HKEX:1208) Las Bambas and Chinalco’s Toromocho, both in Peru, and First Quantum Minerals’ (TSX:FM) Sentinel mine development in Zambia.

All in all, copper investors have plenty to keep an eye on going forward when it comes to tracking drivers for the red metal’s price. At close of day on Tuesday, spot copper was up just barely by 0.14 percent, trading at $2.79 per pound.

China's Copper Imports May Climb above 300,000 T in Mar. after Decline in Feb.

China’s refined copper imports posted a 24.23% fall on the year in February this year, to 211,609 tonnes, Customs data indicate.

The noticeable decline in import volumes was mainly due to the Chinese New Year.

However, SMM expects the import numbers to bounce back to more than 300,000 tonnes this month

M. Stanley slashes metals outlook on 'dormant' China

China's copper imports in February totalled 280,000 tonnes, down by nearly a third from January and the worst drop since 2011.

Customs data also showed imports of iron ore dropped 13.5% to just under 68 million tonnes in February although compared to a year ago there was a gain of 11%.

Coal imports tumbled 9% at 15.26 million tonnes and is down by a third year-on-year.

While seasonal factors played a role in the magnitude of the declines, the "new normal" of slower growth rates in China will continue to put downward pressure on commodity prices says Morgan Stanley in a new research report.

Instead of delivering its reliable first-quarter seasonal expansion in trade, China’s metal processing industry remains dormant

Bloomberg Business reports the investment bank has slashed its forecast across a range of metals and minerals with nickel estimates taking the worst drubbing:

“With only months left before the mid-year peak in sales of commodity-intensive goods, time is running out for China to support commodity prices in 2015,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the report. "Instead of delivering its reliable first-quarter seasonal expansion in trade, China’s metal processing industry remains dormant.”

Morgan Stanley new forecast for the nickel price is 19% below its previous estimates for the year at $16,094 a tonne, which is still sharply higher than today's ruling price of $14,175.

The bank cut its 2016 outlook for copper by 14% to $6,283 a tonne on the back of a global copper surplus of some 230,000 tonnes, compared with a balanced market last year.

Copper held onto its recent gains trading at a three-month high above $6,000 on Tuesday despite news of operations at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia returning to normal after a 5-day blockade by workers that lifted the price.

The bank's 2015 forecast for iron ore was brought into line with the ruling price in the mid-$50s. Morgan Stanley now believes the price of the steelmaking material will average $57 a tonne in 2015 before recovering to $65 a tonne next year and $71 in 2017.

Both those estimates were below previous forecasts thanks to seaborne supply exceeding demand by 129.3 million tonnes in 2017 from an estimated 55 million tonnes this year.

Global aluminum output dropped in February: IAI

The most recent statistics released by the International Aluminum Institute (IAI) indicates that the global aluminum output during the month of February this year, excluding China, dropped when compared with the prior month. However, upon comparison with the same month a year ago, the Feb ’15 output has improved considerably.

As per IAI data, the total aluminum production during February this year totaled 1.911 million mt, down by almost 9% when compared with the revised output figure of 2.104 million mt in January. The output during Feb ’15 was higher by nearly 2% when compared with the output of 1.868 million mt in February last year.

The cumulative aluminum output during the initial two months of the year totaled 4.015 million mt, slightly higher when compared with the output of 3.919 million mt during the corresponding two-month period in 2014.

The average daily aluminum output during the month of February this year was higher month-on-month and year-on-year. The daily output, excluding China, averaged at 68,300 mt per day, higher by 400 mt per day when compared with the average daily output of 67,900 mt per dat during January this year. The average daily output climbed higher by 1,600 mt per day when compared with 66,700 mt reported during February last year.

Founded in 1972, IAI currently represents over 60% of global bauxite, alumina and aluminium production. The Institute works closely with the national and regional aluminium associations. IAI has companies engaged in the production of bauxite, alumina, aluminium, the recycling of aluminium, or fabrication of aluminium or as joint venture partners in such as its members.

Blockade lifted, normal operations resume at Freeport Grasberg mine

According to latest newspaper reports, the five-day unofficial blockade of access road at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has been lifted. The company spokeswoman stated that normal operations have resumed at the mine effective this Friday.

The he unofficial strike by workers at the Grasberg, Papua, Indonesia mine run by Freeport had lasted for five days, halting copper production works at the world’s second largest copper mine in the world. The strike action was initiated by a group of employees, who held a demonstration on Monday blocking the access road at MP 72. This was the only access to the Grasberg mine, underground mining areas and processing facilities.

According to union spokesman, the strike was not backed by them. They further stated that the cause of the strike was unknown. Meantime, the company spokeswoman had clarified that the company was willing to attend to the concerns of the striking employees and had expressed the hope that copper production at the facility was not affected.

Reports indicate that as many as hundred workers were involved in the strike action, demanding bonuses as an incentive for not taking part in a work stoppage last year. The workers agreed to stop the blockade upon request by union officials. The company is yet to reach an agreement with the workers on their demand.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., (FMCG) is one of the world's largest producers of copper and gold. Its headquarters are located in the Freeport-McMoRan Center in downtown Phoenix, Arizona. Freeport is the largest publicly traded copper and molybdenum producer in the world. It mines and mills ores containing copper, gold, molybdenum and silver.

The Grasberg Mine is the second largest copper mine in the world and is located in the province of Papua in Indonesia near Puncak Jaya, the highest mountain in Papua.