Bank of America Merrill Lynch cuts 2015 price forecast for Aluminium to $1,800 a ton

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has cut its this year price forecast for aluminium to $1,800 a ton and remained unchanged for 2016.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch previously mentioned that gold prices to average $1,818 a ton this year and $1,850 a ton for next year.

Aluminium has been among the best performing metals since the beginning of 2014. Of course, this was heavily influenced by substantial output curtailments from operators in World ex-China. Yet, exports of semis from China increased in recent months, halting the rally on LME. 

While the aluminium market in World ex- China remains in deficit, we remain cautious until Chinese product shipments subside. Meanwhile, trading on LME is normalising, which has pushed premia lower. 

Premia remain above fair value, so Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects further downside. Incidentally, lower premia have made Chinese semi exports less economic, so there is scope for China’s producers to dump less material onto international markets.

In Bank's view, the headwind to prices was driven by a confluence of factors, including the following:

--China has continued to export substantial tonnages of semi-finished products. Of course, while the majority of these semis are genuine, some really are primary aluminium disguised as a product to attract tax rebates.

--In addition, queues at LME warehouses after the Financial Crisis contributed to a substantial tightening of the physical market. Yet, trading on the exchange has gradually normalised.

North American Aluminum new mill orders surged 10% in Mar '15

The statistics released by the Aluminum Association indicates that the new mill orders for the month of March 2015 have increased significantly by nearly 10% from the same month a year ago. The orders jumped 6.6% from Feb ’14 levels.

The year-to-date new mill orders index was up by 7.0% in 2015.

New orders for plates have declined by 10.3% in March this year when compared with the same month a year ago. The Mar ‘15 plate orders were also down by 5.8% from January levels.

The heat-treatable sheet orders during the month of March this year surged higher by 125.7% from Mar ’14. Also, the orders climbed higher by 14.4% over the previous month. Non-treatable sheet orders were up by 7.7% year-on-year, but declined marginally by 0.2% from the previous month.

New orders for extruded products and domestic can were up in March, whereas those of foils and export can stock declined.

The orders of extruded products jumped 11.8% in March ‘15 when compared with the previous year. Also, extruded products orders were up by 10% when compared with February 2015 orders.

The Mar ‘15 orders of foils plunged by 17.3% when compared with the previous year. However, the orders rose significantly by nearly 9% from Feb ’15.

The orders of domestic can stock were up by 12.5% from previous year. Also, the orders during March were up by 10% over the previous month.

Also, the orders of export can stock fell 13.2% month-on-month in March ’15. The export can stock orders were up by 1.2% on year-on-year basis.

Deutsche Bank: It's perfect time to buy Nickel

The capitulation on nickel is understandable. Weak stainless steel demand compounded by de-stocking in a traditional restocking period, combined with growing uncertainty over Philippine ore exports have undermined the bull case.

 

Deutsche Bank continues to believe that Chinese nickel pig iron production will decrease as high ore stocks are depleted. However, even if production rates stay higher than anticipated, the current price environment means that 40% of the industry is underwater.

 

Deutsche Bank estimates that the marginal NPI cash cost is c.USD16,000 a ton, which is a more sustainable price in their view, and represents 30% upside from current levels.

 

Nickel is the worst performing base metal, down 17% since the beginning of the year. This is in contrast to the other base metals which are down between 1 to 5%, and lead which is up c.3%.

 

Although Chinese demand has been weak across the board, the recent (widely expected) imposition of an import tariff on imported stainless steel by the European Commission has been a further significant drag on nickel.

 

The 25% rate was also higher than expected. Chinese stainless steel production was down 16% year on year for February, and although the production increases in other regions should compensate, the short-term de-stocking is creating volatility in the short-term.

 

Furthermore, Deutsche Bank thinks investors have given up on the bull case in nickel, as Chinese port ore stocks have remained high and LME inventories have yet to show any signs of declining.

Big Chance Exists for Zinc Prices to Rise in Q2

Zinc prices will have a big chance to rise during the second quarter of the year.

Production worries from environmental drive and demand expectations following China’s One Belt, One Road policy, and loosing in housing market will be the major price driver, Jinyou Futures said to SMM.  

The ongoing stricter environmental protection inspections across the nation, especially in some regions, will prevent utilization rate at domestic zinc smelters from rising significantly, and this will serve as a major supporter to zinc price.

The US’s potential hike in its interest rate, however, will be negative to zinc price, but the supply and demand side will remain the leading factor. 

How will El Niño effect Base Metals Market this year ?

El Niño has arrived, according to a report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in early March.

What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the International Date Line and 120°W), including off the Pacific coast of South America.

El Niño Southern Oscillation refers to the cycle of warm and cold temperatures, as measured by sea surface temperature, SST, of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

How will El Niño effect Metals Market this year?

“Extreme weather related to El Niño, such as floods or droughts, will be a big threat to production in world’s major metal producing countries, including Chile, Peru, Indonesia. Supply disruption resulting from this will boost the market,” said an analyst from COFCO Futures in SMM interview.

Another analyst from Guosen, however, expects the impact on metals market to be indirect, saying the disruption on production in major producing countries remains to be seen. But, he adds that copper price will likely stage a rally in 2Q.

Foreign investors generally expect a boost on the market from El Niño, especially copper and nickel prices.

China Trade Surplus Crashes As Exports & Imports Collapse In March

Forget the weather, it must be the smog. China just announced total carnage in its trade data for March:

• CHINA'S MARCH IMPORTS FALL 12.3% Y/Y IN YUAN TERMS; EST. -11.3%
• CHINA'S MARCH EXPORTS FALL 14.6% Y/Y IN YUAN TERMS; EST. +8.2%
• CHINA'S MARCH TRADE SURPLUS 18.16 BILLION YUAN; EST 250B YUAN

So what exactly was the Chinese stock market 'discounting'?

Trade Surplus collapses... (economists knew about year-end and forecast +250bn!!!)

As Exports crash and Imports continues to slide for the 5th month...

In US Dollars the picture is worse...

• *CHINA'S MARCH EXPORTS FALL 15.0% FROM YEAR EARLIER
• *CHINA'S MARCH IMPORTS FALL 12.7% FROM YEAR EARLIER
• *CHINA'S MARCH TRADE SURPLUS $3.08 BILLION

While year-end shenanigans will likely be blamed (and sure enough...)

• *CHINA 1Q TRADE VOLATILITY MAINLY DUE TO SPRING FESTIVAL: HUANG
• *UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN CHINA'S 2Q EXPORTS MOMENTUM: HUANG

Which is odd that all the data massively missed expectations which we assume Economists were aware of the calendar?

We suspect - given the weakness in other recent data - that this clarifies the fact that Beijing will have to devalue and fast. Their economy is crashing...

Which means Moar QE... Which means stocks limit up?

Chinese Economy "A Lot Worse Than You Think," Bloomberg Says

Meanwhile, in China, things are “a lot worse than you think,” says Bloomberg metals analyst Kenneth Hoffman who recently visited the country to assess the outlook for metals demand. This doesn’t exactly come as a surprise. Falling demand from China has been a major factor in the collapse of iron ore prices which just today caused Australia’s fourth largest miner to suspend production altogether and which last month prompted Fortescue Chairman “Twiggy” Forrest to break out the old “let’s start a cartel” suggestion when discussing how to firm up prices. To let Bloomberg tell it, demand from China for the steelmaking ingredient won’t be picking up anytime soon:

China’s steel and metals markets, a barometer of the world’s second-biggest economy, are “a lot worse than you think,” according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst who just completed a tour of the country.

What he saw: idle cranes, empty construction sites and half-finished, abandoned buildings in several cities. Conversations with executives reinforced the “gloomy” outlook.

“China’s metals demand is plummeting,” wrote Kenneth Hoffman, the metals analyst who spent a week traveling across the country, meeting with executives, traders, industry groups and analysts. “Demand is rapidly deteriorating as the government slows its infrastructure building and transforms into a consumer economy.”

Prices for commodities from iron ore to coal are sinking as China’s leadership tries to steer the economy away from debt-fueled property investment and smokestack industries, embracing services and domestic-led consumption. At the same time,

President Xi Jinping is stepping up efforts to combat pollution, further squeezing industry.

“There is a big fear this is going to get worse before it gets better,” Hoffman said in an interview. “It’s as bad as the data looks, if not worse.”

And the data doesn’t look so hot especially after last month’s contraction territory PMI print and collapsing rail freight number. Then there’s rising NPLs which are prompting the country’s largest banks to slash payouts as loans to manufacturers sour in the face of the very same economic transformation cited by Bloomberg. Finally, China has a small smog problem and while Beijing is apparently trying to export some of this to places that can use a little more pollution (like the rainforest), some estimates suggest that cleaning up the country’s air will come at the price of a 40% decline in industrial production.

Considering all of this, it’s no wonder that Credit Suisse is out with the following bearish commentary which supports a rather dire outlook going forward:

We have made fundamental changes to our demand analysis for iron ore. Given sharply weaker regional steel prices, we now assume a reduction in Chinese steel exports over the period to end-2018. Given a weak domestic backdrop for steel consumption, this results in steel production declines over the next three years. 

2016 is likely to be even tougher year than 2015 for prices as China steel production declines persist (forecast down 0.6%), Roy Hill mine comes to market, BHP adds 25Mtpa, and Rio Tinto continues its ramp up towards +350Mtpa output. In 2016, we expect the most marginal tonnes will have exited the previous year, so the reduction of China domestic tonnes and the retracement of "Other" seaborne tonnes will have slowed. Another period with aggressive pricing will be needed to clean out the new marginal tonnes. We forecast a price of $45/t CFR for the first two quarters next year.

Our China colleagues expect steel growth rates to be negative. Figure 10 shows how far China's domestic steel consumption has contracted from peak levels of 12 months ago. 

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Can you say "hard landing"?