Saturday, March 8, 2014

Copper Collapses Most Since Dec 2011 On China Credit Fears

We noted last night that Iron Ore futures prices were in free-fall as the vicious circle of China's commodity-collateral-backed shadow banking system unwind hits home amid fears of contagion from the Chaori Solar default. The first domestic Chinese corporate bond default has retail investors running scared as surprise spreads that the local government did not come to the rescue. The deleveraging is now spreading to copper prices (remember the massive cash-for-copper schemes of last year) as borrowers are forced to sell to meet cash calls which in turn drops copper prices, reducing collateral values and tightening credit conditions even more. This is the biggest copper price drop since Dec 2011...

Friday, March 7, 2014

Nickel in longest winning streak since 2010 on Indonesia ban



























* Nickel is top performing metal in 2014, up 11.5 pct


Nickel held near nine-month highs on Friday, heading for a seventh session of gains in what would be its longest rally since October 2010, with global supply tightened by Indonesia's ban on ore exports.
Nickel is the best performing base metal this year with a gain of more than 11 percent. The more-traded copper has lost 4.4 percent amid signs Chinese demand may slow as the top user of the metal eyes a less-investment driven economic expansion.
Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.2 percent at $15,497 a tonne by 0327 GMT, heading for a seventh session of gains that would mark its longest rally since an 11-day stretch in September-October 2010.
The metal, used in making stainless steel, touched $15,562 on Thursday, its highest since June 3. Nickel has gained 5.3 percent for the week, its fifth straight weekly rise.
Around $500 million a month in ore and concentrate exports have stopped since Indonesia in January imposed new mining rules that included a ban on nickel ore exports. The country was previously the world's top exporter of the metal.
China, the world's top buyer of nickel ore, is likely to be the most hurt from the ban and its stockpiles may soon run out.
"In the near term, there will be no supplier that would be able to replace Indonesia and Chinese stainless steel producers may be forced to import refined nickel which will increase their cost," said Helen Lau, senior mining analyst at UOB-Kay Hian Securities in Hong Kong.
"This will create a lot of demand for nickel and send prices even higher," said Lau, who sees the metal easily topping $16,000 a tonne, a level last seen in April 2013.
The only other viable source of nickel ore for China would be the Philippines, but the lower quality of the ore there will push up the cost for producers of stainless steel. [ID:nL6N0LX2II]
LME copper slipped 0.3 percent to $7,032 a tonne, but is set of finish the week up marginally.
Lau said she sees copper averaging at $6,850 this year, reflecting slower economic growth in China as Beijing shifts to a consumption-driven expansion, which would curb its demand for the industrial metal.
China's economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, told parliament on Wednesday that the government will target 17.5 percent growth in fixed-asset investment this year, the slowest in 12 years. [ID:nL3N0M21ES]
The most-traded May copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange eased 0.2 percent to 49,090 yuan ($8,000) a tonne.
Investors are also eyeing the U.S. jobs data due later on Friday that is forecast to show a 150,000 increase in employment in February, up from 113,000 in January and 75,000 in December. That growth may be enough to keep the Federal Reserve on its stimulus tapering path. [ID:nL1N0M01H4]
The U.S. economic outlook would have to change dramatically for the Fed to alter the pace at which it is winding down its massive bond-buying program, three top U.S. central bankers said. 

Thursday, March 6, 2014

LME Copper to average $7,014 a ton this year: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

LME copper prices to average $7,014 a ton this year , said Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but has a weaker forecast of $6,750 for the second quarter.The American bank said that it anticipates a small supply surplus in 2014. Analysts also point out the metal has fallen year-to-date despite strong import data from key commodity consumer China. The availability of copper in the country appears better than the rest of the world.
“This has perhaps been best reflected in price differentials between the London Metals Exchange and the Shanghai Future Exchange, which do not incentivize copper imports at present,” said the analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Analysts said that they are concerned that China's government may focus on checking the credit growth from recent years.
“In our view, there is a risk that a credit event may further reduce China's commercial copper purchases,” said the American bank, adding it is maintaining its second-quarter forecast of $6,750 a ton, or $3.06 a pound.

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Recent Russia-Ukraine crisis may impact several commodities

Recent Russia-Ukraine crisis may impact several commodities
The political tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine have potential to impact markets for a number of commodities, said Deutsche Bank in a snippet.
According to the German Bank, exports of commodities account for around half of Ukraine’s gross domestic product. Key commodity exports include agriculture, chemicals, metals and timber.
Meanwhile, Europe depends on Russia for about 30% of its gas supply. Deutsche Bank points out that gold has benefited from safe-haven flows due to the crisis.
“If there are international efforts to impose sanctions on Russia, then this could start to impact the PGM (platinum group metals) sector and specifically palladium given Russia is the world’s largest producer of palladium and given its large holdings of above-ground stocks,” said the analysts at Deutsche Bank, via Kitco News. “Nickel, oil and aluminum could also be affected.”
“However, of the major metals aluminum is probably the most oversupplied which may limit price implications from any sanction induced supply disruption,” Deutsche Bank added.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Weekly Economic Data for the week 01-Mar-14 to 07-Mar-14

Data for the week 01-Mar-14 to 07-Mar-14
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
01-Mar-2014 06-30 AM China NBS Manufacturing PMI 50.1 50.5 -0.40 0.77 Neutral
 
03-Mar-2014 07-15 AM China HSBC Manufacturing PMI 48.5 49.5 -1.00 0.97 Bad
03-Mar-2014 07-30 PM European Monetary Union ECB President Draghi Testifies in Brussels          
03-Mar-2014 08-30 PM United States ISM Manufacturing PMI 52 51.3 0.70 1.35 Neutral
 
04-05 Mar-2014 -- United States U.S. President Obama Send Budget to Congress          
04-06 Mar-2014 -- United States Bernanke, Summers, Kim Speak at Global Financial Markets Forum          
04-Mar-2014 09-00 AM Australia RBA Cash Rate Target 2.5% 2.5% 0.00% 0.05 Neutral
04-Mar-2014 02-30 PM United States Bernanke Speaks at Global Financial Markets Forum in Abu Dhabi          
04-Mar-2014 03-30 PM European Monetary Union Producer Price Index (MoM) -0.10% 0.20% -0.30% 0.45 Neutral
04-Mar-2014 03-30 PM European Monetary Union Producer Price Index (YoY) -1.30% -0.80% -0.50% 0.45 Bad
 
05-Mar-2014 03-30 PM European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 0.30% 0.30% 0.00% 0.23 Neutral
05-Mar-2014 08-30 PM Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1% 1% 0.00 0.00 Neutral
05-Mar-2014 09-00 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change   0.068   3.45  
 
06-Mar-2014 05-30 PM United Kingdom BOE Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5% 0.00% 0.00 Neutral
06-Mar-2014 06-15 PM European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.00% 0.07 Neutral
06-Mar-2014 07-00 PM European Monetary Union ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision          
06-Mar-2014 09-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change   -95   33.60  
 
07-Mar-2014 04-30 PM Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) 0.80% -0.60% 1.40% 2.36 Neutral
07-Mar-2014 07-00 PM United States Trade Balance $-39B $-38.7B -0.30$ 3.21 Neutral
07-Mar-2014 07-00 PM United States Nonfarm Payrolls 150K 113K 37.00 43.00 Neutral
07-Mar-2014 07-00 PM United States Unemployment Rate 6.60% 6.60% 0.00% 0.13 Neutral


Monday, March 3, 2014

US Official Claims 6,000 Russian Troops In Complete Control Of Crimea - Crisis Map Update

While the images and local news have been suggesting that Russia is in control on the Crimean peninsula, US officials (according to Bloomberg) have confirmed this:
  • *RUSSIAN FORCES IN COMPLETE CONTROL OF CRIMEA: U.S. OFFICIAL
  • *RUSSIA HAS 6,000 TROOPS IN CRIMEA, U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS
  • *KERRY TO REAFFIRM SUPPORT FOR UKRANIAN SOVEREIGNITY, PSAKI SAYS
Obama, Merkel, and Cameron are now on a conference call to discuss this "fact" and officials have just reported that US Secretary of State John Kerry will visit Kiev tomorrow (though we suspect not Sevastopol):
  • U.S. IS FOCUSED ON ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC OPTIONS ON UKRAINE, NOT ON ANY POSSIBLE U.S. MILITARY INTERVENTION, U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS
  • *U.S. CONSIDERING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN BANKS, OFFICIAL SAYS.

US Official Claims 6,000 Russian Troops In Complete Control Of Crimea - Crisis Map Update

Russia vs Ukraine: The Infographic

Curious how Ukraine, which with its population of 44 million and size of 603,628 square km makes it the largest single country entirely in Europe, stacks up against Russia? The following infographic should answer some questions regarding the (im)balance of power.


Russia vs Ukraine: The Infographic