We noted last night that Iron Ore futures prices were in free-fall as the vicious circle of China's commodity-collateral-backed shadow banking system unwind hits home amid fears of contagion from the Chaori Solar default. The first domestic Chinese corporate bond default has retail investors running scared as surprise spreads that the local government did not come to the rescue. The deleveraging is now spreading to copper prices (remember the massive cash-for-copper schemes of last year) as borrowers are forced to sell to meet cash calls which in turn drops copper prices, reducing collateral values and tightening credit conditions even more. This is the biggest copper price drop since Dec 2011...
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Saturday, March 8, 2014
Friday, March 7, 2014
Nickel in longest winning streak since 2010 on Indonesia ban
* Nickel is top performing metal in 2014, up 11.5 pct
Nickel held near nine-month highs on Friday, heading for a seventh session of gains in what would be its longest rally since October 2010, with global supply tightened by Indonesia's ban on ore exports.
Nickel is the best performing base metal this year with a gain of more than 11 percent. The more-traded copper has lost 4.4 percent amid signs Chinese demand may slow as the top user of the metal eyes a less-investment driven economic expansion.
Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.2 percent at $15,497 a tonne by 0327 GMT, heading for a seventh session of gains that would mark its longest rally since an 11-day stretch in September-October 2010.
The metal, used in making stainless steel, touched $15,562 on Thursday, its highest since June 3. Nickel has gained 5.3 percent for the week, its fifth straight weekly rise.
Around $500 million a month in ore and concentrate exports have stopped since Indonesia in January imposed new mining rules that included a ban on nickel ore exports. The country was previously the world's top exporter of the metal.
China, the world's top buyer of nickel ore, is likely to be the most hurt from the ban and its stockpiles may soon run out.
"In the near term, there will be no supplier that would be able to replace Indonesia and Chinese stainless steel producers may be forced to import refined nickel which will increase their cost," said Helen Lau, senior mining analyst at UOB-Kay Hian Securities in Hong Kong.
"This will create a lot of demand for nickel and send prices even higher," said Lau, who sees the metal easily topping $16,000 a tonne, a level last seen in April 2013.
The only other viable source of nickel ore for China would be the Philippines, but the lower quality of the ore there will push up the cost for producers of stainless steel. [ID:nL6N0LX2II]
LME copper slipped 0.3 percent to $7,032 a tonne, but is set of finish the week up marginally.
Lau said she sees copper averaging at $6,850 this year, reflecting slower economic growth in China as Beijing shifts to a consumption-driven expansion, which would curb its demand for the industrial metal.
China's economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, told parliament on Wednesday that the government will target 17.5 percent growth in fixed-asset investment this year, the slowest in 12 years. [ID:nL3N0M21ES]
The most-traded May copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange eased 0.2 percent to 49,090 yuan ($8,000) a tonne.
Investors are also eyeing the U.S. jobs data due later on Friday that is forecast to show a 150,000 increase in employment in February, up from 113,000 in January and 75,000 in December. That growth may be enough to keep the Federal Reserve on its stimulus tapering path. [ID:nL1N0M01H4]
The U.S. economic outlook would have to change dramatically for the Fed to alter the pace at which it is winding down its massive bond-buying program, three top U.S. central bankers said.
Thursday, March 6, 2014
LME Copper to average $7,014 a ton this year: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
LME copper prices to average $7,014 a ton this year , said Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but has a weaker forecast of $6,750 for the second quarter.The American bank said that it anticipates a small supply surplus in 2014. Analysts also point out the metal has fallen year-to-date despite strong import data from key commodity consumer China. The availability of copper in the country appears better than the rest of the world.
“This has perhaps been best reflected in price differentials between the London Metals Exchange and the Shanghai Future Exchange, which do not incentivize copper imports at present,” said the analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Analysts said that they are concerned that China's government may focus on checking the credit growth from recent years.
“In our view, there is a risk that a credit event may further reduce China's commercial copper purchases,” said the American bank, adding it is maintaining its second-quarter forecast of $6,750 a ton, or $3.06 a pound.
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Recent Russia-Ukraine crisis may impact several commodities
The political tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine have potential to impact markets for a number of commodities, said Deutsche Bank in a snippet.
According to the German Bank, exports of commodities account for around half of Ukraine’s gross domestic product. Key commodity exports include agriculture, chemicals, metals and timber.
Meanwhile, Europe depends on Russia for about 30% of its gas supply. Deutsche Bank points out that gold has benefited from safe-haven flows due to the crisis.
“If there are international efforts to impose sanctions on Russia, then this could start to impact the PGM (platinum group metals) sector and specifically palladium given Russia is the world’s largest producer of palladium and given its large holdings of above-ground stocks,” said the analysts at Deutsche Bank, via Kitco News. “Nickel, oil and aluminum could also be affected.”
“However, of the major metals aluminum is probably the most oversupplied which may limit price implications from any sanction induced supply disruption,” Deutsche Bank added.
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
Weekly Economic Data for the week 01-Mar-14 to 07-Mar-14
Data for the week 01-Mar-14 to 07-Mar-14
Date | Time (IST) | Country | Data | Exp. | Prior | Exp. chg today | Avg. chg of last 1 year | Exp. Impact on Price |
01-Mar-2014 | 06-30 AM | China | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 50.5 | -0.40 | 0.77 | Neutral |
03-Mar-2014 | 07-15 AM | China | HSBC Manufacturing PMI | 48.5 | 49.5 | -1.00 | 0.97 | Bad |
03-Mar-2014 | 07-30 PM | European Monetary Union | ECB President Draghi Testifies in Brussels | |||||
03-Mar-2014 | 08-30 PM | United States | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52 | 51.3 | 0.70 | 1.35 | Neutral |
04-05 Mar-2014 | -- | United States | U.S. President Obama Send Budget to Congress | |||||
04-06 Mar-2014 | -- | United States | Bernanke, Summers, Kim Speak at Global Financial Markets Forum | |||||
04-Mar-2014 | 09-00 AM | Australia | RBA Cash Rate Target | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.00% | 0.05 | Neutral |
04-Mar-2014 | 02-30 PM | United States | Bernanke Speaks at Global Financial Markets Forum in Abu Dhabi | |||||
04-Mar-2014 | 03-30 PM | European Monetary Union | Producer Price Index (MoM) | -0.10% | 0.20% | -0.30% | 0.45 | Neutral |
04-Mar-2014 | 03-30 PM | European Monetary Union | Producer Price Index (YoY) | -1.30% | -0.80% | -0.50% | 0.45 | Bad |
05-Mar-2014 | 03-30 PM | European Monetary Union | Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.23 | Neutral |
05-Mar-2014 | 08-30 PM | Canada | Bank of Canada Rate Decision | 1% | 1% | 0.00 | 0.00 | Neutral |
05-Mar-2014 | 09-00 PM | United States | EIA Crude Oil Stocks change | 0.068 | 3.45 | |||
06-Mar-2014 | 05-30 PM | United Kingdom | BOE Interest Rate Decision | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.00% | 0.00 | Neutral |
06-Mar-2014 | 06-15 PM | European Monetary Union | ECB Interest Rate Decision | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.00% | 0.07 | Neutral |
06-Mar-2014 | 07-00 PM | European Monetary Union | ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision | |||||
06-Mar-2014 | 09-00 PM | United States | EIA Natural Gas Storage change | -95 | 33.60 | |||
07-Mar-2014 | 04-30 PM | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | 0.80% | -0.60% | 1.40% | 2.36 | Neutral |
07-Mar-2014 | 07-00 PM | United States | Trade Balance | $-39B | $-38.7B | -0.30$ | 3.21 | Neutral |
07-Mar-2014 | 07-00 PM | United States | Nonfarm Payrolls | 150K | 113K | 37.00 | 43.00 | Neutral |
07-Mar-2014 | 07-00 PM | United States | Unemployment Rate | 6.60% | 6.60% | 0.00% | 0.13 | Neutral |
Monday, March 3, 2014
US Official Claims 6,000 Russian Troops In Complete Control Of Crimea - Crisis Map Update
While the images and local news have been suggesting that Russia is in control on the Crimean peninsula, US officials (according to Bloomberg) have confirmed this:
- *RUSSIAN FORCES IN COMPLETE CONTROL OF CRIMEA: U.S. OFFICIAL
- *RUSSIA HAS 6,000 TROOPS IN CRIMEA, U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS
- *KERRY TO REAFFIRM SUPPORT FOR UKRANIAN SOVEREIGNITY, PSAKI SAYS
Obama, Merkel, and Cameron are now on a conference call to discuss this "fact" and officials have just reported that US Secretary of State John Kerry will visit Kiev tomorrow (though we suspect not Sevastopol):
- U.S. IS FOCUSED ON ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC OPTIONS ON UKRAINE, NOT ON ANY POSSIBLE U.S. MILITARY INTERVENTION, U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS
- *U.S. CONSIDERING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN BANKS, OFFICIAL SAYS.
Russia vs Ukraine: The Infographic
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