Tuesday, April 22, 2014

What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling

Large speculators reduced ther S&P 500 positioning to net short this week and their NASDAQ longs to a one-year low as BofAML reports on CFTC data. Macros funds decreased their long exposure to S&P500 and NASDAQ to now hold short exposure. They also decreased their long exposure to US Dollar (raising their AUD longs to a record high) and maintained their long exposure to 10-year Treasuries. They decreased their long exposure to commodities and increased their long exposure to EM. Across all asset classes, positioning is at extremes.
Significant HF moves across asset classes, based on CFTC data
Equities. Large specs decreased S&P 500 to net short and reduced NASDAQ longs. They also increased Russell 2000 shorts last week

What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data
Agriculture. Large specs increased their long positioning in Soybean futures but decreased longs in Corn and Wheat futures
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data
Metals. Large specs decrease Gold and Silver longs and increased Copper shorts. They maintained Platinum and Palladium longs.
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data
Energy. Large specs increased their Crude longs and Gasoline longs. They also increased Natural Gas shorts but Heating Oil shorts.
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data
FX. Large specs increased their EUR, AUD and GBP longs. They decreased their JPY shorts and MXN longs position.
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data
Interest Rates. Large specs increased their short positions in 10-year while increasing their long position in 30-yr. They also reduced 2-year shorts
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data

One can't help but see this positioning and wonder just who the big boys are selling to - as we noted here,
Based on Bloomberg's Smart Money Flow indicator, there is a very significant amount of distribution going on... the question is just who is soaking up the smart money selling? Company buybacks, Johnny 5, or a greater-fool retail investor?

What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data

Perhaps this chart from Lance Roberts at STA Wealth provides some color for who?
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data

However, the idea that individual investors are still "out of the market" should be taken with a bit of caution. The chart below is data compiled by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) which surveys it membership on portfolio allocation.  The data is compiled and released monthly. 


What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data

With cash hovering at the lowest levels since the "Tech Wreck," and equity exposure at the highest,investors are more than just "warming up" to equities. They are effectively "all in" with respect to the financial markets.

Monday, April 21, 2014

Barclays is the next big bank pulling out of commodities: report

Barclays is the next big bank pulling out of commodities: report

British multinational banking and financial services Barclays is said to be the next big bank planning to sell large parts of its metals, agricultural and energy business in a move that, FT.com reports (subs. required), will be announced on Tuesday.
The decision echoes moves by other major players, such as JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, which have been recently walking away from their commodities business.
Since the US Federal Reserve determined in 2003 that certain commodity activities were "complementary" to financial activities and therefore permissible to Wall Street bankers, many jumped at the chance, but that tide has now turned.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Royal Bank of Scotland are either shrinking their commodities units or plainly moving away from everything to do with them, including mining, processing, transportation, warehousing and trading.
JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) got $3.5bn last month after selling its physical commodities unit to Geneva-based trading house Mercuria, while Morgan Stanley has cut back on commodities operations and staff.
Barclays, which is one of the top five banks in commodities, got to control roughly 70% of the commodities trading market last year. But in response to pressure to cut costs and improve returns, the UK bank announced Friday a shakeup of its investment bank management team, including a new head of markets and new co-heads of banking.
The British lender also told staff last week it was looking to simplify its operations and that it could axe thousands of jobs, mainly at its investment arm, while conducting a strategic review, which will report next month.
Revenues for the investment banks from the sector surged to $15 billion at the peak of the cycle, but has now fallen back dramatically in line with a retreat in metal and mineral prices.
Braclays is set to present a strategic update on May 8.

12 Gold bars removed from Indian man's stomach

12 Gold bars removed from Indian man's stomach
Twelve bars of gold have been recovered from the stomach of a businessman in the Indian capital, Delhi, a surgeon treating him has said.
The 63-year-old man was admitted to hospital after complaining of vomiting and difficulty defecating.
He told his doctor that he had swallowed a bottle cap in anger, after a fight with his wife.
But when surgeons operated they found gold bars weighing nearly 400g (14oz) in his stomach instead of a bottle cap.
Doctors, who performed the operation on 9 April, told the BBC that police and customs authorities had questioned the businessman and confiscated the gold.
India, the world's largest consumer of gold, has seen a record rise in smuggling after a rise in duty on imports of metal to curb the current account deficit.
Dr CS Ramachandran, a senior surgeon at Delhi's Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, said he had never seen a "case like this in my life".
"This is the first time I have recovered gold from the stomach of a patient. I remember having taken out a bladder stone weighing 1kg from a patient. But finding gold in a patient's stomach was something unbelievable," he said.
"It was a tedious three-hour-long operation. He is an old patient and we had to be careful. We found 12 gold bars lying in a stack in his stomach."
The businessman, who had undergone four stomach surgeries in the past and is a diabetic, was admitted to the hospital earlier this month, with symptoms of "acute intestinal obstruction", Dr Ramachandran added.
Last year India's government hiked the import duty on gold three times to curb demand for the precious metal. Gold imports, which had peaked at 162,000kg in May 2013, came down to 19,300kg in November after the hike.

Gas Prices Hit 13-Month Highs, Prompt Macro Concerns

At $3.67, US Regular gasoline prices are their highest since March 2013 having risen over 12% (40c) in the last 2 months. This must be great news, right? It must mean world demand is picking up and driving up prices of crude oil as global trade soars (amid a collapsing Baltic Dry and decelerating Chinese growth). This can't be related to "war premia" right? - as we noted here - because stocks (which always know best) have discounted all this tomfoolery. However, as the following chart shows, each time gas prices have surged up toards the Maginot Line of $3.80, US macro-economic fundamentals have collapsed... the only problem is, this time is different - because macro data is already weak going in (and expectations for the post-weather pop are high). 
Gas prices heading towards the crucial $3.80 level - and US macro is already weak ahead of this turning point...Gas Prices Hit 13-Month Highs, Prompt Macro Concerns

Weekly Economic Data for the week 19-Apr-14 to 25-Apr-14

Investors pay close attention to the announcement of these events because of the high probability that it will affect the direction of the market. You can get the same Economic Calendar at https://www.dynamiclevels.com/economic-calendar.
Exp.: Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior: Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today: Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year: Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price: This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual: Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 19-Apr-14 to 25-Apr-14
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
22-Apr-2014 07-30 PM United States Existing Home Sales 4.55M 4.60M -0.05M 0.16 Neutral
22-Apr-2014 07-30 PM European Monetary Union EC - Consumer Confidence -9.30 -9.30 0.00 1.04 Neutral
 
23-Apr-2014 07-15 AM China HSBC China Manufacturing PMI 48.3 48.0 0.30 0.97 Neutral
23-Apr-2014 02-00 PM United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes          
23-Apr-2014 04-30 PM United States MBA Mortgage Applications   4.30%   7.79 Neutral
23-Apr-2014 07-15 PM United States Markit US Manufacturing PMI 56.0 55.5 0.50 1.15 Neutral
23-Apr-2014 07-30 PM United States US-New Home Sales 0.45M 0.44M 0.01 0.01 Neutral
23-Apr-2014 08-00 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change   10.013   3.45 Neutral
 
24-25 Apr-2014 - European Monetary Union EC - ECB's Draghi, Knot, Nouy to Attend Dutch Central Bank Conf.          
24-Apr-2014 07-30 AM China CB March Leading Economic Index - - 0.00 0.76 Neutral
24-Apr-2014 01-30 PM Germany IFO - Business Climate 110.4 110.7 -0.30 0.00 Neutral
24-Aprr-2014 2-30 PM European Monetary Union ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks in Amsterdam          
24-Apr-2014 06-00 PM United States US-Initial Jobless Claims 315K 304K 11.00 14.63 Neutral
24-Apr-2014 06-00 PM United States US-Durable Goods Orders 2.00% 2.20% -0.20% 6.72 Neutral
24-Apr-2014 08-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change   24.00   33.60 Neutral
 
25-Apr-2014 07-25 PM United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 83 82.6 0.40 2.48 Neutral


INFOGRAPHIC: Is deep sea mining worth the risk?


Is deep sea mining worth the risk?

The robot is ready - so when will deep sea mining start ?

The robot is ready - so when will deep sea mining start ?
* Most potential subsea minerals in international waters
* U.N. body expects mining code in 2-3 years
* Canadian company ready to mine off Papua New Guinea
By Stephen Eisenhammer and Silvia Antonioli
NEWCASTLE, England/LONDON, April 18 (Reuters) - The world's first deep sea mining robot sits idle on a British factory floor, waiting to claw up high grade copper and gold from the seabed off Papua New Guinea (PNG) - when a wrangle over terms is solved.
Beyond PNG, in international waters, regulation and royalty terms for mining the planet's subsea wealth have also yet to be finalised. The world waits for the judgement of a United Nations agency based in Jamaica.
"If we can take care of the environment we have a brand new day ahead of us. The marine area beyond national jurisdiction is 50 percent of the Ocean," said Nii Odunton, secretary general of the U.N.'s International Seabed Authority (ISA).
"I believe the grades look good, the abundance looks good, I believe that money will be made," Odunton said from the ISA offices in Kingston.
High-tech advances, depleted easy-to-reach minerals onshore and historically high prices have boosted the idea of mining offshore, where metals can be fifteen times the quality of land deposits.
In Newcastle, the "beasty", as engineer Keith Franklin calls his machine, lies in wait, resembling a submersible tank with four metre wide cutting blades.
Built by Soil Machine Dynamics (SMD), it will put Canadian listed Nautilus Minerals on course to become the first company to commercially mine in deep water.
Nautilus' primary resource, Solwara 1, about 1,500 metres underwater, is a Seafloor Massive Sulphide (SMS) deposit, which forms along hydrothermal vents where mineral-rich fluids spurt from cracks in the ocean crust.
Equipped with cameras and 3D sonar sensors the robot is driven by two pilots from a control room on the vessel above, attached via a giant power cable.
"The cameras aren't enough by themselves because the machine will be working by vents where black soot spurts from the ocean crust and it will sometimes be near impossible to see anything," said Stef Kapusniak, business development manager for mining at SMD. "The 3D sonar will allow it to make images and send it back to the control room."
The machine then cuts up the sea floor and sucks the rocks through a pipe to deposit it in mounds behind - "like icing a cake," Kapusniak said. Another machine, yet to be built, will then help suck the ore to the surface.
Nautilus aims to produce 80,000-100,000 tonnes of copper and 100,000-200,000 ounces of gold - equivalent to a modest onshore mine. It was supposed to be producing by now, but disagreements with the PNG government over financial terms have set it back.
Chief Executive Mike Johnston told Reuters he was confident a resolution would be sorted out and the company would be mining within two to three years.
Most of the world's best deposits lie even deeper than Nautilus' Solwara 1, at around 6,000 metres in an area known as the Clarion Clipperton Zone.
Large numbers of manganese nodules - potato sized rocks rich in copper, cobalt and nickel - lie across this 4.5 million square kilometre abyssal plain between Hawaii and Mexico.
LICENSES ALREADY AWARDED
The U.N.'s ISA is drawing up a code to deal with some environmental concerns and the commercial terms for deep-sea mining. It predicts it will be finished in around two or three years, with mining still 5-10 years away.
"It's only after the code is in place and people are happy with it that the huge investments needed to start deep-sea mining will occur," ISA's Odunton, a Ghanaian, said.
ISA is, however, already doling out exploration licenses - 19 have been approved. Odunton said interest in them had "catapulted" in the past five years.
In order to get a licence through ISA an applicant must be sponsored or partnered with a country. For nations like Japan which lack their own resource wealth, deep-sea mining is a potential way to secure mineral supply for the future.
China, the world's largest metals consumers, is also one of the most active in exploring the area.
Britain has an exploration licence in partnership with UK Seabed Resources, a subsidiary of defence firm Lockheed Martin .
"These are the days you have to take a position, especially as a government," said Martijn Schouten, managing director at IHC's mining division - an equipment maker which targets seabed mining as its next growth driver.
IHC is the leading partner in an European Union funded project called Blue Mining, begun in February, and will look at the business case and technology for deep-sea mining over the next four years.
This new frontier is an exciting prospect for developing island nations like Tonga and Nauru, which both have exploration licences. For Tonga, where Nautilus says it has been collecting encouraging exploration results, it could be a game changer.
"The revenue stream and taxes from a medium sized mine would have an enormous benefit to the country," Nautilus' Johnston said.
The main companies looking to mine the seabed, like Nautilus and UK Seabed Resources, are not, however, traditional mining firms, although Anglo American does have a 5 percent stake in the former.
IHC said most of its contracts were with technology-based companies that were not in the mining industry, although it would not specify further due to confidentiality clauses.
IHC said it has had discussions with oil majors who are beginning to show an interest in deep sea mining.
But, with little of the deep ocean mapped or explored, environmentalists worry about the potential loss of fauna and biospheres whose existence is not yet understood.
"Only 3 percent of the oceans are protected and less than 1 percent of the high seas, making them some of the least protected places on earth. The emerging threat of seabed mining is an urgent wake-up call," Greenpeace said in a report last year.
"I think we really have to be careful about what happens to the environment," said ISA's Odunton. "We don't know enough to take some of the risks we've taken on land."