Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Copper Price Jumped On China Imports In April 2014 Data.

Copper Price Jumped On China Imports In April 2014 Data.

In late afternoon New York trade on Monday July copper changed hands nearly 2% or 6c a pound higher on optimism about demand from China and receding fears about supply growth.
July copper futures in New York in late afternoon dealings were last trading at a two-month peak of $3.1420 a pound after earlier in the day hitting a high of $3.1555.
The copper price has now recovered 6% since falling to near four-year lows in March although the metal is still down from $3.37 at the outset of 2014.
There was no fresh news out of China, responsible for more than 40% of global demand, on Monday that could have sparked the rally bar a fresh commitment from Beijing to push through capital market reforms announced earlier this year.
Optimism about the market-friendly measures was also somewhat dampened by Chinese President Xi Jinping saying that slower growth is the "new normal" for the country.
Traders were digesting fata released last week showed the country's inbound shipments of copper surged 52% to 450,000 tonnes in April.
April's jump brought the first quarter total to a record-breaking 1.75 million tonnes, although the numbers are misleading since as much as 60% of copper inventories in China are tied as collateral for trade credit and do not necessarily reflect stronger end-user demand.
China's surging imports coincide with a fall in copper stocks in LME warehouses to levels last seen in 2008.
China's surging imports coincide with a fall in copper stocks in LME warehouses to levels last seen in 2008.
There were also unconfirmed reports last month indicating that the Chinese State Reserves Bureau has bought up to 350,00 tonnes of copper in March and April to move into state warehouses.
The copper price has been hurt this year a combination of the slowdown in China and fears over surging supply.
Output is to top 22.2 million tonnes this year from just over 21 million tonnes in 2013 led by Codelco's new 160,000 tonnes-plus Ministro Hales mine, Glencore's Las Bambas project in Peru it sold to China's Minmetals recently, the first full year of production at Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia and expansion at BHP Billiton's already giant Escondida mine.
But after an abnormally quiet 2013 with few supply disruption to existing operations, 2014 could yet turn out to be different.
Freeport McMoRan and fellow Indonesian copper miner Newmont Mining are deferring exports from Indonesia due to onerous new duties slapped on copper concentrate exports at the start of the year, while delays in bringing projects on stream to replace aging mines at state-owned Codelco, which dwarves other producers of the metal, could also limit supply growth.
Codelco, which produced 1.622 million tonnes last year, plans to invest $5 billion annually over the next five to six years to replace exhausted reserves and increase production with hopes of hitting than 2 million tonnes a year by the end of the decade.

Spot The Goldman And Glencore Aluminum Warehouses

Across the 137 warehouses that the London Metal Exchange has begun tracking, 2 stand out. Having been at the center of allegations of manipulation of the metals markets - most notably Aluminum - thanks to monopolistic warehousing, the following report from the LME will not entirely shock that none other than Goldman Sachs (and Glencore) have simply incredible waiting times for delivery of the base metal. We discussed the monopolization (thanks to lax Fed regulation) hereherehere, and here and as Reuters reports lengthy logjams at warehouses monitored by the LME, the world's oldest and biggest market for industrial metals, prompted bitter criticism by consumers and sparked a wide-ranging reform program at the exchange. With nearly 2-year-waits for Aluminum delivery by Goldman - we are sure regulators will see nothing wrong at all.

Spot The Goldman And Glencore Aluminum Warehouses
The LME's new report, covering the month of April, showed the backlogs were concentrated at four warehouse locations and with three major warehouse operators.

The LME already publishes data on inventory levels by location and metal, but up until now has not published the amount of stock held by individual companies.

The LME report showed the longest queue was just over two years, or 748 calendar days, for aluminum at Pacorini warehouses in the Dutch port of Vlissingen and the second longest was 683 days at Metro depots in Detroit.

Pacorini Metals is owned by commodity group Glencore Xstrata and Metro International Trade Services is a unit of Goldman Sachs.
Nothing to see here regulators... move along...

Monday, May 12, 2014

Norsk Hydro to Shut down Kurri Kurri Aluminium Plant Permanently

Norsk Hydro to Shut down Kurri Kurri Aluminium Plant Permanently
Norsk Hydro decided to close its Kurri Kurri Aluminium Plant permanently. The smelter is situated at Kurri Kurri, in the hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia. The plant has been closed for its maintenance and ceased its production in 2012.
After being in the maintenance and care mode since 2012, the decision to close the Kurri Kurri Aluminium smelter permanently is allowing for redevelopment and remediation options for the site progresses. The decision to stop the production from the plant in 2012 was due to the overall market situation for the light metal including weak macroeconomic environment, low prices, uncertain trade outlook and strong Australian dollar to the American dollar.
The company has been evaluating and preparing for a possible shutdown of the plant and has been setting up plans for the site future. This made to take the decision of permanent closure of the Kurri Kurri Smelter. The company said that the plans would be again consulted with the stakeholders and local communities.
Executive vice president of Hydro’s primary Metal business area, Hilde Merete said that they were always committed to their stakeholders and the local communities in maintaining a good relationship, to understanding their ideas, values and concerns and to keep them involved in all plans and phases of the projects. The closure costs are expected to be compensated by the land and equipment sale.
However, the decision to shutdown makes the nation’s jobless rate high. The Kurri Kurri Aluminium plant had nearly 500 employees, with a net yearly production of around 180,000 tonnes.

China Imports and Exports of Copper and Aluminum in April 2014

China Imports and Exports of Copper and Aluminum in April 2014
According to the preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 450,000 mt during April, with YTD imports from January to April at 1780,000 mt up 41.1 % YoY. 

China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis were 330,000 mt in April, with YTD exports from February to April at 1180,000 mt, up 7.3 % YoY.

 

Weekly Economic Data for the week 10-May-14 to 16-May-14

Weekly Economic Data for the week 10-May-14 to 16-May-14
Expected impact on price: This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual: Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 10-May-14 to 16-May-14
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
10-15 May-2014 -- China Money Supply M2 YoY 12.0% 12.1% -0.10 0.71 Neutral
 
12-May-2014 01-00 PM European Monetary Union EU Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels          
12-May-2014 05-30 PM India Industrial Production YoY 1.5% 1.9% -0.40% 2.08 Neutral
 
13-May-2014 11-00 AM China Retail Sales (YoY) 12.2% 12.2% 0.00% 0.78 Neutral
13-May-2014 11-00 AM China Industrial Production (YoY) 8.9% 8.8% 0.10% 0.67 Neutral
13-May-2014 02-30 PM Germany ZEW Survey (Expectation) 40 43.2 -3.20 9.00 Neutral
13-May-2014 02-30 PM Germany ZEW Survey - Current Situation 60.5 59.5 1.00 5.46 Neutral
13-May-2014 06-00 PM United States Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4% 1.1% -0.70% 0.63 Neutral
13-May-2014 10-00 PM Germany GE - Merkel Holds News Conference With IMF-OECD-World Bank Heads         Neutral
 
14-May-2014 12-00 PM India Wholesale Prices YoY 5.7% 5.7% 0.00 0.46 Neutral
14-May-2014 02-00 PM United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) 6.8% 6.9% -0.10% 0.07 Neutral
14-May-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) 0.9% 1.7% -0.80% 0.59 Neutral
14-May-2014 03-00 PM United Kingdom Bank of England Releases Inflation Report         Neutral
14-May-2014 06-20 PM Germany Merkel Gives Speech at Cooperative-Bank Conference         Neutral
14-May-2014 08-00 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change -- 1.78 -1.78 3.45 Neutral
 
15-May-2014 09-55 AM Japan BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks in Tokyo         Neutral
15-May-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 0.4% 0.2% 0.20% 0.23 Neutral
15-May-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.2% 0.9% -0.70% 0.65 Neutral
15-May-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.7% -- 0.70% 0.07 Neutral
15-May-2014 06-00 PM United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2% 1.5% 0.50% 0.25 Good
15-May-2014 06-45 PM United States Industrial Production (MoM) -- 0.7% -0.70% 0.97 Neutral
15-May-2014 08-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change -- 74 -74.00 33.60 Neutral
 
16-May-2014 04-00 AM United States Fed's Yellen Speaks to U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington         Neutral
16-May-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Trade Balance s.a. -- €15.0B -15.00€ 2.05 Neutral
16-May-2014 07-25 PM United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 84.5 84.1 0.40 2.48 Neutral


East Ukraine Independence And Gold Movement On Sunday

There's no better time (or fiduciarily dutiful moment) than a Sunday night at 650pm ET after the majority of Eastern Ukraine votes to secede to Russia to sell $231.5 million notional worth of gold futures...
East Ukraine Independence And Gold Movement On Sunday
And in case you were wondering... no other asset classes reacted in any way like this...