The Wonderful Uses Of Silver

Weekly Economic Data for the week 25-Jan-14 to 31-Jan-14

Data for the week 25-Jan-14 to 31-Jan-14

Date	Time (IST)	Country	Data	Exp.	Prior	Exp. chg today	Avg. chg of last 1 year	Exp. Impact on Price
25-Jan-2014	06-30 PM	European Monetary Union	ECB's Draghi, BOE's Carney, BOJ's Kuroda on Panel in Davos
27-Jan-2014	05-20 AM	Japan	Bank of Japan December 19-20 meeting minutes
27-Jan-2014	02-30 PM	Germany	IFO - Business Climate	110	109.5	0.50	1.26	Neutral
27-Jan-2014	02-30 PM	Spain	Economy Minister in Brussels for Euro Group Jan 27-28
27-Jan-2014	07-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Eurogroup Meets in Brussels
27-Jan-2014	08-30 PM	United States	New Home Sales (MoM)	0.458K	0.464K	-0.01	0.01	Very Bad
28-30 Dec-2013	--	United States	Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting
28-Jan-2014	11-00 AM	India	RBI Cash Reserve Ratio	4.0%	4.0%	0.00%	0.03	Neutral
28-Jan-2014	11-00 AM	India	RBI Repurchase Rate	7.75%	7.75%	0.00%	0.16	Neutral
28-Jan-2014	11-00 AM	India	RBI Reverse Repo Rate	6.75%	6.75%	0.00%	0.16	Neutral
28-Jan-2014	01-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Ecofin in Brussels
28-Jan-2014	03-00 PM	United Kingdom	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.7%	0.8%	-0.10%	0.34	Neutral
28-Jan-2014	07-00 PM	United States	Durable Goods Orders	1.7%	3.5%	-1.80%	6.72	Neutral
28-Jan-2014	08-30 PM	United States	Consumer Confidence	77.5	78.1	-0.60	4.00	Neutral
29-Jan-2014	12-30 PM	United Kingdom	Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)	0.4%	1.4%	-1.00%	0.87	Bad
29-Jan-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	M3 Money Supply (3m)	1.5%	1.7%	-0.20%	0.18	Neutral
29-Jan-2014	09-00 PM	United States	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		-0.990M		3.45
30-Jan-2014	00-30 AM	United States	FOMC Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.00%	0.00	Neutral
30-Jan-2014	07-15 AM	China	HSBC Manufacturing PMI	49.6	50.5	-0.90	0.97	Neutral
30-Jan-2014	03-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Confidence	-11.7	-11.7	0.00	1.04	Neutral
30-Jan-2014	07-00 PM	United States	Gross Domestic Product Annualized QoQ	3.2%	4.1%	-0.90%	1.11	Neutral
30-Jan-2014	09-00 PM	United States	EIA Natural Gas Storage change		-107		33.60
31-Jan-2014	03-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Unemployment Rate	12.1%	12.1%	0.00%	0.07	Neutral
31-Jan-2014	08-25 PM	United States	Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	81	80.4	0.60	2.48	Neutral

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE BEARISH CAN TOUCH 15450

Currently Trading @ 16450
TARGET MET 03-02-2014 IN 10 DAYS

Jim Rogers Bullish On Base Metals

Weekly Economic Data for the week 18-Jan-14 to 24-Jan-14

Data for the week 18-Jan-14 to 24-Jan-14

Date	Time (IST)	Country	Data	Exp.	Prior	Exp. chg today	Avg. chg of last 1 year	Exp. Impact on Price
20-Jan-2014	07-30 AM	China	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	7.6%	7.8%	-0.20%	0.48	Neutral
20-Jan-2014	07-30 AM	China	Industrial Production (YoY)	9.8%	10.0%	-0.20%	0.67	Neutral
20-Jan-2014	07-30 AM	China	Retail Sales (YoY)	13.6%	13.7%	-0.10%	0.78	Neutral
20-Jan-2014	02-00 PM	European Monetary Union	EU Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels
21-Jan-2014	03-30 PM	Germany	ZEW Survey - Current Situation	35	32.4	2.60	5.46	Neutral
21-Jan-2014	03-30 PM	Germany	ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment	64	62	2.00	12.25	Neutral
22-Jan-2014	-	Japan	BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target		¥270T		0.00
22-Jan-2014	12-00 PM	Japan	BoJ Governor Kuroda Press Conference After Rate Decision
22-Jan-2014	03-00 PM	United Kingdom	ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)	7.3%	7.4%	-0.10%	0.07	Good
22-Jan-2014	03-00 PM	United Kingdom	Bank of England Releases Monetary Policy Minutes
22-Jan-2014	08-30 PM	Canada	Bank of Canada Rate Decision	1%	1%	0.00	0.00	Neutral
21-Jan-2014	09-45 PM	Canada	Bank of Canada Governor Poloz Press Conference
23-Jan-2014	-	Brazil	Central Bank of Brazil Releases Monetary Policy Minutes
23-Jan-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Markit Manufacturing PMI	53	52.7	0.30	0.80	Neutral
23-Jan-2014	08-30 PM	United States	Existing Home Sales (MoM)	4.95M	4.90M	0.05M	0.16	Neutral
23-Jan-2014	08-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Confidence	-13.0	-13.6	0.60	1.04	Neutral
23-Jan-2014	09-00 PM	United States	EIA Natural Gas Storage change		-287		33.60
23-Jan-2014	09-30 PM	United States	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		-7.658M		3.45
24-Jan-2014	05-35 PM	United Kingdom	BOE's governor Mark Carney Speaks at World Economic Forum in Davos

Technical Analysis MCX Metals And Energy.

Gold (Rs 29,265) 

The MCX Gold futures contract for 10 gram traded in a narrow range between Rs 28,865 and Rs 29,314 last week. Technically, the contract is holding well above its 200-day moving average support at Rs 28,799. This keeps the short-term bullish outlook intact. Traders can hold on to their long positions and retain the stop-loss at Rs 28,300. A rally to Rs 31,000 looks likely in the coming weeks. The significant resistances are at Rs 29,790 and Rs 29,851. On the downside, the 200-day moving average is the immediate support level. Below this Rs 28,300 is the next significant support. In the medium-term, the contract can range between Rs 28,300 and Rs 31,000. A break out of this range will decide the trend thereafter.

Copper (Rs 458)

After the sharp fall a week before, the 55-day moving average support at Rs 454 a kg has lent some relief to the MCX Copper contract. The immediate outlook is mixed. The 21-day moving average resistance at Rs 463 and the support at Rs 454 are important levels to watch out for. Traders can wait for the contract to breakthrough either levels. If the contract declines below Rs 454, traders can go short with a stop-loss at Rs 459. Target on the downside is Rs 440. If the contract breaches Rs 463, traders can initiate long positions with a stop-loss at Rs 456. Target on the upside is Rs 475.

Crude Oil (Rs 5,777)

The MCX Crude Oil contract has bounced back from the low of Rs 5,640/barrel last week. Immediate support is at Rs 5,700. As long as the contract trades above this support, it can rise to Rs 5,950 or Rs 6,000 in the coming weeks. However, the trend is down and an immediate breach of Rs 6,000 looks less probable. Traders can take short position near Rs 5,950 with a stop-loss at Rs 6,150. In the medium-term, Rs 5,400-5,350 is the key support zone which can halt the downtrend. A reversal from this support zone can take the contract to Rs 8,000 in the long-term.

Natural gas (Rs 266)

The MCX Natural gas contract rose sharply to a high of Rs 276.7 for a million British thermal unit last week. This was in contrast to our view of a fall to Rs 240 . The immediate outlook is not clear. Traders can avoid taking positions until a clear signal emerges. The contract can remain range-bound between Rs 250 and Rs 280 for some time. A strong break above Rs 280 is required to signal a bullish outlook . Target above Rs 280 is Rs 350. But as long as the contract trades below Rs 280, a fall to Rs 220 is possible in the medium-term. Such a fall will be a good buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Zinc (Rs 128)

After two weeks of consecutive fall, the MCX Zinc contract moved up last week. But the contract faces immediate resistance at Rs 129. Only a strong break of this resistance will turn the outlook positive. Failure to breach Rs 129 and a subsequent reversal will be bearish for the contract. In such a scenario, short positions can be initiated with a stop-loss at Rs 132. The contract can fall to Rs 121 initially and then to Rs 115. A reversal from Rs 115 can avoid a further fall to Rs 105. The contract will then move in a sideways range between Rs 115 and Rs 135 in the short-term.

Comex Warehouse Potential Claims Per Deliverable Ounce Rises to Historical High 112 to 1

An almost shocking decline in deliverable (registered) gold has taken the ratio of open interest to deliverable gold to 112 to 1. 

This is not a default scenario since the supply of eligible gold in the warehouses remains adequate and at historically manageable levels as shown in the last chart below. 

Rather, it suggests that higher prices will be required to persuade more bullion owners to place their inventory up for delivery. 

That higher price, of course depends on who those owners are, and how motivated they might be by profits from their metals trades.  For some interested parties it is enough to be the very close friends of the Central Banks, with benefits that make them incredibly rich, self-satisfied, and occasionally audacious to the point of over-reaching.

But of course, it is well to remember that the Comex has become the tail wagging the dog, as the gold bullion markets have shifted to the East.