Monday, July 22, 2013

Weekly Economic Data 20-Jul-13 to 26-Jul-13

Expected impact on price: This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual: Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 20-Jul-13 to 26-Jul-13
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
22-Jul-2013 01-00 PM European Monetary Union EU Foreign Ministers Meeting in Brussels.          
22-Jul-2013 07-30 PM United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) 5.26M 5.18M 0.08M 0.16 Neutral
 
24-Jul-2013 07-15 AM China HSBC Manufacturing PMI 48.5 48.2 0.30 0.97  
24-Jul-2013 12-28 PM France Markit Manufacturing PMI 48.8 48.4 0.401.56 1.53 Neutral
24-Jul-2013 12-28 PM France Markit Services PMI 47.7 47.2 0.50 1.45 Neutral
24-Jul-2013 12-58 PM Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI 49.4 48.6 0.80 1.32 Neutral
24-Jul-2013 04-30 PM United States MBA Mortgage Applications   -2.6%   7.79  
24-Jul-2013 07-30 PM United States New Home Sales (MoM) 0.485M 0.476M 0.01M 0.01 Neutral
24-Jul-2013 08-00 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change   -6.902M   3.45  
 
25-Jul-2013 01-30 PM Germany IFO - Current Assessment 110.0 109.4 0.60 1.35 Neutral
25-Jul-2013 01-30 PM Germany IFO - Business Climate 106.1 105.9 0.20 1.26 Neutral
25-Jul-2013 01-30 PM Germany IFO - Expectations 102.5 102.5 0.00 1.45 Neutral
25-Jul-2013 01-30 PM European Monetary Union ECB Publishes Monetary Developments in the Euro Area.          
25-Jul-2013 02-00 PM United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.6% 0.3% 0.30% 0.88  
25-Jul-2013 02-00 PM United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 1.4% 0.3% 1.10% 0.80  
25-Jul-2013 06-00 PM United States Durable Goods Orders 1.1% 3.6% -2.50% 6.72 Neutral
25-Jul-2013 06-00 PM United States Initial Jobless Claims   334K   14.63  
25-Jul-2013 08-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change   58B   34.42  
 
26-Jul-2013 07-25 PM United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index   84.1   2.48  


Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Data for the week 13-Jul-13 to 19-Jul-13 Weekly Economic Data

Expected impact on price:This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very GoodGoodNeutralBadVery Bad



DateTime (IST)CountryDataExp.PriorExp. chg todayAvg. chg of last 1 yearExp. Impact on Price
15-Jul-201307-30 AMChinaGross Domestic Product (YoY)7.5%7.7%-0.20%0.50Neutral
15-Jul-201307-30 AMChinaIndustrial Production (YoY)9.1%9.2%-0.10%0.67Neutral
15-Jul-201307-30 AMChinaRetail Sales (YoY)12.9%12.9%0.00%0.78Neutral
15-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesNY Empire State Manufacturing Index5.007.84-2.846.97Neutral
15-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesRetail Sales (MoM)0.8%0.6%0.20%0.63Neutral
 
16-Jul-201302-00 PMUnited KingdomConsumer Price Index (MoM)-0.1%0.2%-0.30%0.45Neutral
16-Jul-201302-00 PMUnited KingdomConsumer Price Index (YoY)3.0%2.7%0.30%0.28Bad
16-Jul-201302-30 PMEuropean Monetary UnionConsumer Price Index (YoY)1.6%1.6%0.00%0.07Neutral
16-Jul-201302-30 PMGermanyZEW Survey - Current Situation9.08.60.405.46Neutral
16-Jul-201302-30 PMGermanyZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment40.038.51.5012.25Neutral
16-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesConsumer Price Index (MoM)0.3%0.1%0.20%0.26Neutral
16-Jul-201306-45 PMUnited StatesIndustrial Production (MoM)0.3%0.0%0.30%0.97Neutral
 
17-Jul-201302-00 PMUnited KingdomBank of England Minutes     
17-Jul-201302-00 PMUnited KingdomClaimant Count Change-8.0K-8.6K0.609.54Neutral
17-Jul-201304-30 PMUnited StatesMBA Mortgage Applications -4% 7.79 
17-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesHousing Starts (MoM)0.960K0.914K0.05K0.03Neutral
17-July-201307-30 PMUnited StatesUS- Fed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to House     
17-Jul-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Crude Oil Stocks change -9.874M 3.45 
 
18-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesInitial Jobless Claims341K360K-19.00k13.33Bad
18-Jul-201307-30 PMUnited StatesCB Leading Indicator (MoM)0.3%0.1%0.20%0.56Neutral
18-July-201307-30 PMUnited StatesFed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to Senate     
18-Jul-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Natural Gas Storage change 82B 24.64 
 
19-20 -July-201300:00European Monetary UnionEU-Foreign Ministers Meet in Palma de Mallorca, Spain     
19-20- July-201300:00European Monetary UnionG20- Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting     

Comex Gold, Silver, Copper Latest Open Interest And Volume

Floor Clearport Product Name Exchange Volume Open Interest
OG OG Gold Options COMEX 19182 1724094
GC GC Gold Futures COMEX 163541 433695
SO SO Silver Options COMEX 5959 217372
HG HG Copper Futures COMEX 45346 160787
SI SI Silver Futures COMEX 30067 131994
HX HX Copper Options COMEX 19 3065
QO
miNY Gold Futures COMEX 314 1590
MGC
E-micro Gold Futures COMEX 769 1589
HGS HGS Copper Financial Futures COMEX 75 546
SIL SIL 1,000-oz. Silver Futures COMEX 157 408
QC
E-mini Copper Futures COMEX 28 205
QI
miNY Silver Futures COMEX 32 178






Source CME



Friday, July 12, 2013

US economy still needs Fed's stimulus: Bernanke

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that the US economy still needs help from the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policies.

Bernanke told the National Bureau of Economic Research that because unemployment remains high and inflation is below the Fed's target, the policies are still necessary. He also said the economy is being held back by higher taxes and federal spending cuts. 

"If you put all of that together, you can only conclude that highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what is needed for the US economy," Bernanke said.

Stock index futures rose as Bernanke spoke. The Standard & Poor's index futures were up eight points, or 0.5 per cent, at 1,656 as of 5:40 pm Eastern Daylight Time - shortly after Bernanke wrapped up his remarks.

Bernanke's comments were his latest effort to stress that the Fed will continue to stimulate the economy, even after it begins to slow $85-billion-a-month in bond purchases that have kept long-term interest rates down.

The Fed plans to keep its investment holdings constant to avoid causing long-term rates to rise too quickly. It also plans to keep short-term rates at record lows at least until unemployment slides to 6.5 per cent.

And Bernanke has said 6.5 per cent unemployment is a threshold, not a trigger: The Fed might decide to keep its benchmark short-term rate near zero even after unemployment falls that low.

Unemployment is currently 7.6 per cent.

On Wednesday, Bernanke didn't signal any changes in the bond-buying program. But Bernanke defended recent comments he made after the Fed's June meeting.

At his June 19 news conference, Bernanke said the Fed would likely slow its bond purchases later this year and end them around mid-2014 if the economy continued to strengthen. Stocks and bonds plunged in the days after his remarks. Some critics said the Fed bungled its communications strategy.

Bernanke asked his audience to consider what might have happened if the Fed had given no signals on when the bond buying might be curtailed. He said that might have led to an increase in risk-taking on the part of investors "reflecting an expectation for an infinite" program of bond purchases.

"Explaining what we are doing may have avoided a much more difficult situation at another time," he said.

Bernanke also did not provide any clues on his own future. Many expect he will leave when his current term ends in January.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Copper Fell As Chile cuts Production Forecast, Freeport resumes shipments & Mongolia Copper Exports Underway.

Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi copper exports underway -Rio Tinto

The mine is expected to make up a third of Mongolia's economy by 2020, and at full tilt produce around 450,000 tonnes of copper and 330,000 ounces of gold a year.
"Oyu Tolgoi starts production at a time when undeveloped quality copper assets are scarce and the outlook for copper continues to be strong," said Rio Tinto , which helped fund Oyu Tolgoi's $6.2 billion development cost.
Journalists had been invited to attend a ceremony at the mine located 80 km (50 miles) north of the Mongolia-China border on June 14 to mark the first exports. That was postponed to June 21, but the event was again canceled at the last minute.
Mongolia's mining minister has said the delay in exports was because the government and Rio disagreed on the arrangement of revenue generated from Oyu Tolgoi as well as the disclosure of the mine's $8 billion sales agreements.

Freeport Indonesia resumes underground mining, shipments

Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc has resumed copper shipments from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia as it restarts open-pit and underground mining, but expects output this year to drop by a fifth following a near two-month stoppage.
A training tunnel cave-in killed 28 people at the world's second-biggest copper mine in May, shutting operations across the mine site while safety investigations were carried out.
Freeport had sent two shipments of copper concentrate to refineries in Indonesia and China since June, well below its normal 10 shipments a month, the company said.

Chile Cuts Copper Production Forecast For 2013 As Global Slowdowns Impact Demand

Chile, the world's top copper producer, said Tuesday it expects to produce 5.53 million metric tons of the red metal in 2013, down from its previous forecast of 5.58 million tons, which was announced in April.
The price of copper, a barometer for the health of the global economy, has fallen about 15 percent this year. Its price on the Comex has fallen from nearly $3.80 per metric ton in February 2013 to $3.05 on Tuesday -- a 19 percent drop in slightly more than four months.
The government's copper commission, known as Cochilco, also cut its average copper price forecast to $3.27 per pound compared to the previous level of $3.57 per pound as a result of a slowdown in purchasing activity from the world's top metals consumer, China.
The price cut is also influenced by the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve winding down its economic stimulus program -- and thus potentially trimming U.S. economic activity, including demand for copper -- as well as a projected copper surplus in the coming years.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Gold Imports Plunge 80% In June 2013 In India

Gold imports plunge 80% in June in India
India’s gold imports in June have fallen 80 per cent to about 32 tonnes, providing some relief to the current account deficit and the weak rupee.The drop was sharp against the record May imports of 162 tonnes but only a 36 per cent dip over the June 2012 level of 50 tonnes.
A series of measures taken by the Government and the RBI since mid-May seem to have helped stem the import of gold. While the Government hiked the import duty on the yellow metal to 8 per cent from 6 per cent earlier, the RBI shut the consignment route for gold imports by banks.
Gold is only second to crude oil in India’s import bill. The value of gold and silver imports in April-May stood at $15.8 billion. In April alone, the gold import bill touched $7.5 billion.