Monday, July 29, 2013

Gold, silver rally will be short-lived; downside risks persist.

Four weeks into the third quarter of the year, global commodity markets are still groping for direction.
gold-silver-crude-copper-Base-Metal-downside-riskA clutch of factors including demand and supply side issues, varying monetary policy stance of central banks, volatile exchange rates and geopolitics to name a few have created a sense of uncertainty.
There indeed are concerns over global growth.
In the coming months, communication from central banks especially in advanced economies will have a far reaching impact on commodity markets with potential effect on volatility.
At the same time, economic data support the expectation of stronger growth in the second half of the year in developed economies even as slowdown in China is a real risk.
How long and how far the Chinese authorities will tolerate the slowdown before taking action is still a key unknown.
Weakening Chinese activity is surely negative for metal commodity prices.
Be that as it may, global commodity prices in the first half of 2013 were at best choppy.
Over the week, all precious metals, except palladium, gained.
Gold was up 2.7 per cent, silver was up by 3.1 per cent, while platinum ended marginally higher.
Gold:In gold, the net redemptions so far this year are an estimated 630 tonnes.
Additionally, the third quarter is a seasonally weak demand period, especially in major markets such as India.
The Indian government is keen to ensure that gold imports are brought under fuller control to address the current account deficit.
According to technical analysts, gold momentum is bearish.
The metal faces resistance at $1,372 and then at $1,350 while support is seen $1,300 and $1,270.
Base metals: Serious concerns over Chinese manufacturing cuts that would result in lower industrial metals demand have weighed on the market. Without doubt, the implications of slowing Chinese demand are likely to dominate the base metals market sentiment in the coming months.
According to technical analysis, copper momentum is bearish.
Resistance is seen at $7,120 and then at $7,035 while support may be available at $6,835 and then $6,600.
Copper runs the risk of going toward the $6,750 area and then to range lows near $6,600.
Crude: Recent rise in oil prices may not hold for long as weak demand caps the upside. Demand in key consumption markets such as China may slow in the coming months as currencies depreciate against the US dollar making oil imports so much more expensive in local currencies.
Technically, the near-term downside risk to WTI is seen toward $103 and then potentially the $102 area, before signs of a base appear.

Weekly Economic Data 27-Jul-13 to 02-Aug-13

Expected impact on price:This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very GoodGoodNeutralBadVery Bad
Actual:Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 27-Jul-13 to 02-Aug-13
DateTime (IST)CountryDataExp.PriorExp. chg todayAvg. chg of last 1 yearExp. Impact on Price
30-31Jul-201300:00United StatesPresident Obama Speaks on the Economy in Tennessee     
30-Jul-201311-00 AMIndiaRBI Cash Reserve Ratio4.0%4.0%0.00%0.08Neutral
30-Jul-201311-00 AMIndiaRBI Repurchase Rate7.25%7.25%0.00%0.08Neutral
30-Jul-201311-00 AMIndiaRBI Reverse Repo Rate6.25%6.25%0.00%0.08Neutral
30-Jul-201307-30 PMUnited StatesConsumer Confidence81.081.4-0.404.00Neutral
 
31-Jul-201301-25 PMGermanyUnemployment Change0.0k-12K12.00K10.36Bad
31-Jul-201304-30 PMUnited StatesMBA Mortgage Applications -1.2% 7.79 
31-Jul-201305-45 PMUnited StatesADP Employment Change180K188K-8.00K46.50Neutral
31-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesGross Domestic Product Annualized1.0%1.8%-0.80%0.56Neutral
31-Jul-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Crude Oil Stocks change -2.825M 3.45 
31-Jul-201311-30 PMUnited StatesFed Interest Rate Decision0.25%0.25%0.00%0.00 
31-Jul-201311-30 PMUnited StatesFed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference     
 
01-Aug-201306-30 AMChinaNBS Manufacturing PMI49.850.1-0.300.77Neutral
01-Aug-201307-15 AMChinaHSBC Manufacturing PMI47.748.2-0.500.89 
01-Aug-201301-18 PMFranceMarkit Manufacturing PMI49.848.80.001.53Neutral
01-Aug-201301-23 PMGermanyMarkit Manufacturing PMI50.350.30.001.37Neutral
01-Aug-201304-30 PMUnited KingdomBoE Interest Rate Decision0.5%0.5%0.00%0.00Neutral
01-Aug-201304-30 PMUnited KingdomBank of England Monetary Policy Committee Decision     
01-Aug-201305-15 PMEuropean Monetary UnionECB Interest Rate Decision0.5%0.5%0.00%0.04Neutral
01-Aug-201306-00 PMEuropean Monetary UnionECB Monetary policy statement and press conference     
01-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesInitial Jobless Claims344K343K1.00k14.63Neutral
01-Aug-201307-30 PMUnited StatesISM Manufacturing PMI52.050.91.101.35Neutral
01-Aug-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Natural Gas Storage change 41B 33.97 
 
02-Aug-201311-30 AMUnited KingdomNationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)0.40%0.30%0.10%0.62Neutral
02-Aug-201311-30 AMUnited KingdomNationwide Housing Prices PX NSA (YoY)3.10%1.90%1.20%0.60Very Good
02-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesNonfarm Payrolls185K195K-10.00K43.00Neutral
02-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesPersonal Income (MoM)0.5%0.5%0.00%0.17Neutral
02-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesPersonal Spending0.5%0.3%0.20%0.38Neutral
02-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesUnemployment Rate7.5%7.6%-0.10%0.13Neutral
02-Aug-201307-30 PMUnited StatesFactory Orders (MoM)2.3%2.1%0.20%3.36Neutral

Monday, July 22, 2013

Weekly Economic Data 20-Jul-13 to 26-Jul-13

Expected impact on price: This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual: Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 20-Jul-13 to 26-Jul-13
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
22-Jul-2013 01-00 PM European Monetary Union EU Foreign Ministers Meeting in Brussels.          
22-Jul-2013 07-30 PM United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) 5.26M 5.18M 0.08M 0.16 Neutral
 
24-Jul-2013 07-15 AM China HSBC Manufacturing PMI 48.5 48.2 0.30 0.97  
24-Jul-2013 12-28 PM France Markit Manufacturing PMI 48.8 48.4 0.401.56 1.53 Neutral
24-Jul-2013 12-28 PM France Markit Services PMI 47.7 47.2 0.50 1.45 Neutral
24-Jul-2013 12-58 PM Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI 49.4 48.6 0.80 1.32 Neutral
24-Jul-2013 04-30 PM United States MBA Mortgage Applications   -2.6%   7.79  
24-Jul-2013 07-30 PM United States New Home Sales (MoM) 0.485M 0.476M 0.01M 0.01 Neutral
24-Jul-2013 08-00 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change   -6.902M   3.45  
 
25-Jul-2013 01-30 PM Germany IFO - Current Assessment 110.0 109.4 0.60 1.35 Neutral
25-Jul-2013 01-30 PM Germany IFO - Business Climate 106.1 105.9 0.20 1.26 Neutral
25-Jul-2013 01-30 PM Germany IFO - Expectations 102.5 102.5 0.00 1.45 Neutral
25-Jul-2013 01-30 PM European Monetary Union ECB Publishes Monetary Developments in the Euro Area.          
25-Jul-2013 02-00 PM United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.6% 0.3% 0.30% 0.88  
25-Jul-2013 02-00 PM United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 1.4% 0.3% 1.10% 0.80  
25-Jul-2013 06-00 PM United States Durable Goods Orders 1.1% 3.6% -2.50% 6.72 Neutral
25-Jul-2013 06-00 PM United States Initial Jobless Claims   334K   14.63  
25-Jul-2013 08-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change   58B   34.42  
 
26-Jul-2013 07-25 PM United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index   84.1   2.48  


Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Data for the week 13-Jul-13 to 19-Jul-13 Weekly Economic Data

Expected impact on price:This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very GoodGoodNeutralBadVery Bad



DateTime (IST)CountryDataExp.PriorExp. chg todayAvg. chg of last 1 yearExp. Impact on Price
15-Jul-201307-30 AMChinaGross Domestic Product (YoY)7.5%7.7%-0.20%0.50Neutral
15-Jul-201307-30 AMChinaIndustrial Production (YoY)9.1%9.2%-0.10%0.67Neutral
15-Jul-201307-30 AMChinaRetail Sales (YoY)12.9%12.9%0.00%0.78Neutral
15-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesNY Empire State Manufacturing Index5.007.84-2.846.97Neutral
15-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesRetail Sales (MoM)0.8%0.6%0.20%0.63Neutral
 
16-Jul-201302-00 PMUnited KingdomConsumer Price Index (MoM)-0.1%0.2%-0.30%0.45Neutral
16-Jul-201302-00 PMUnited KingdomConsumer Price Index (YoY)3.0%2.7%0.30%0.28Bad
16-Jul-201302-30 PMEuropean Monetary UnionConsumer Price Index (YoY)1.6%1.6%0.00%0.07Neutral
16-Jul-201302-30 PMGermanyZEW Survey - Current Situation9.08.60.405.46Neutral
16-Jul-201302-30 PMGermanyZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment40.038.51.5012.25Neutral
16-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesConsumer Price Index (MoM)0.3%0.1%0.20%0.26Neutral
16-Jul-201306-45 PMUnited StatesIndustrial Production (MoM)0.3%0.0%0.30%0.97Neutral
 
17-Jul-201302-00 PMUnited KingdomBank of England Minutes     
17-Jul-201302-00 PMUnited KingdomClaimant Count Change-8.0K-8.6K0.609.54Neutral
17-Jul-201304-30 PMUnited StatesMBA Mortgage Applications -4% 7.79 
17-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesHousing Starts (MoM)0.960K0.914K0.05K0.03Neutral
17-July-201307-30 PMUnited StatesUS- Fed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to House     
17-Jul-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Crude Oil Stocks change -9.874M 3.45 
 
18-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesInitial Jobless Claims341K360K-19.00k13.33Bad
18-Jul-201307-30 PMUnited StatesCB Leading Indicator (MoM)0.3%0.1%0.20%0.56Neutral
18-July-201307-30 PMUnited StatesFed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to Senate     
18-Jul-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Natural Gas Storage change 82B 24.64 
 
19-20 -July-201300:00European Monetary UnionEU-Foreign Ministers Meet in Palma de Mallorca, Spain     
19-20- July-201300:00European Monetary UnionG20- Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting