Showing posts with label INDIAN EQUITY MARKET. Show all posts
Showing posts with label INDIAN EQUITY MARKET. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Revised market lot of F&O

NIFTY 50 25
ASHOKLEY 11000 8000
AXISBANK 1250 500
GMRINFRA 10000 9000
HAVELLS 1250 1000
IFCI 9000 8000
NHPC 12000 10000
UNITECH 17000 9000
ADANIENT 1000 500
ADANIPORTS 2000 1000
ALBK 4000 2000
AMBUJACEM 2000 1000
ARVIND 2000 1000
BHEL 2000 1000
CIPLA 1000 500
COLPAL 250 125
CROMPGREAV 2000 1000
DABUR 2000 1000
DISHTV 8000 4000
DIVISLAB 250 125
FEDERALBNK 4000 2000
GAIL 1000 500
HCLTECH 250 125
HDFCBANK 500 250
HDIL 8000 4000
HINDPETRO 1000 500
IGL 1000 500
INDIACEM 4000 2000
IOB 8000 4000
IRB 4000 1000
ONGC 1000 500
ORIENTBANK 2000 1000
PFC 2000 1000
PNB 500 250
RANBAXY 1000 500
SIEMENS 500 250
SSLT 2000 1000
SYNDIBANK 4000 2000
TATAMTRDVR 2000 1000
TATASTEEL 1000 500
TVSMOTOR 2000 1000
UNIONBANK 2000 1000
UPL 2000 1000
VOLTAS 2000 1000
YESBANK 1000 500
UBL 250 500Revision of Market Lot of Derivative Contracts on Indices
NIFTY Present Market Lot 50 Revised Market lot 25
Nifty Midcap 50 Present Market Lot 150 Revised Market lot 75
All contracts in the above mentioned Indices shall have the new market lot with effect from October 31, 2014
DEPARTMENT : FUTURES & OPTIONS Download Ref No : NSE/FAOP/27733 Date : September 30, 2014
Circular Ref. No : 069/2014
Revised market lot of F&ODEPARTMENT : FUTURES & OPTIONS Download Ref No : NSE/FAOP/27734 Date : September 30, 2014
Circular Ref. No : 070/2014
INDIAVIX Present Market Lot 550 Revised Market lot 800
The revised lot size shall be applicable to contracts with expiry date October 28, 2014 and onwards

Thursday, September 25, 2014

India’s top court cancels over 200 coal licences

India’s top court cancels over 200 coal licences
India's Supreme Court has cancelled 214 of the 218 government permits for coal mines allocated since 1993 after the licensing process was deemed illegal, in a move that adds uncertainty beyond the struggling sector to the heart of Asia's third-largest economy.
"The court has cancelled all the allocations except four," Attorney General Mukul Rohtagi told reporters on Wednesday outside the court, Business Standard reports.
Last month the same court ruledthe country's decades-old method of granting coal mining concessions was illegal and arbitrary
Last month the same court ruled the country's decades-old method of granting coal mining concessions was illegal and arbitrary, putting investments worth billions of dollars at risk.
The court decision took effect immediately for the 172 mines that weren't in production. It also ignored requests from the federal government to exempt about 40 coal blocks that had either started production or were near it.
The ruling sent shares of Jindal Steel and Power Limited, Hindalco Industries Limited and Tata Power Co Limited sharply lower.
The firms have already spent heavily on steel and power plants based around the coal blocks.
As companies have waited to learn the fate of the coal-mining rights, India has faced an acute shortage of coal, which fuels about three-fifths of its power needs.
The country is the world's third-largest producer of coal, behind China and the U.S. Yet it relies heavily on imports because of mismanagement and an onerous bureaucracy in coal exploration, production and power generation. As a result, nearly a quarter of India's 1.2 billion people have no electricity, according to the World Bank.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Nifty Futures September Expiry Overview

Nifty futures reverse from its low of 7952.5 after US Federal Reserve at the end of a two-day policy meeting on last Wednesday, 17th Sep 2014, maintained a commitment to keep US interest rates near zero for a considerable time.

Nifty Futures Hourly Chart
Nifty Futures September Expiry Overview

Nifty Open Interest Lookup
When nifty futures dips below sub 8000 level 8200CE writers started building open interest on reversal back after the FED meeting 8000PE writers are back again with building huge open interest positions over there and the declining volatility will favor the 8000PE writers in eating up the premiums as expiry is nearing.
Nifty Futures September Expiry Overview

Upcoming Economic Events
Nifty Futures September Expiry Overview

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Modi Government Gets 43000 Crore by Selling Stake in Coal India ,ONGC ,NHPC.

Modi Government Gets 43000 Crore by Selling Stake in Coal India ,ONGC ,NHPC.

Kicking off the mega disinvestment drive, government on Wednesday approved the sale of shares in Coal India, ONGC and NHPC to garner a combined Rs 43,000 crore.
"Disinvestment proposals of ONGC, Coal India and NHPC have been cleared by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs," an official source said after a meeting of the CCEA, headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
At current market prices, the sale of shares in state- owned CIL, ONGC and NHPC could garner over Rs 23,000 crore, Rs 18,000 crore and Rs 2,800 crore respectively, helping the government meet its disinvestment target of Rs 43,425 crore for this fiscal.
CCEA has cleared 10 per cent stake dilution in CIL, 5% in ONGC and 11.36% in NHPC through the Offer For Sale (OFS) route, sources said.
The government has already selected merchant bankers for managing ONGC and NHPC disinvestment and is in the process for doing so for CIL.
The previous government had cleared disinvestment in SAIL and according to sources the 5% stake sale in the state-owned steel maker is likely to hit the markets this month.
The sale of 5 per cent stake or about 20.65 crore shares of SAIL at the current market price of around Rs 80.95 a piece would fetch the exchequer over Rs 1,600 crore.
The Cabinet had in July 2012 approved 10.82 per cent stake sale in SAIL. Accordingly, the first tranche of disinvestment of 5.82% was completed in March 2013. The government has missed its disinvestment target for five consecutive financial years.
In 2010-11 and 2011-12 fiscals, the government had raised Rs 22,144 crore and Rs 13,894 crore through disinvestment, against the budgeted target of Rs 40,000 crore in each year.
In 2012-13, it had raised Rs 23,956 crore, as against the target of Rs 30,000 crore. In 2013-14, the government could raise Rs 16,027 crore, as against the budgeted target of Rs 40,000 crore. The target in revised estimates was scaled down to Rs 16,027 crore.

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Why to trade in Nifty Future instead of Stock Future

Why to trade in Nifty Future instead of Stock Future
Here is my reasoning.
  1. You do not have to diversify with multiple stocks for equity exposure, the index is already diversified.

  2. The risk of any one stock having something catastrophic happen will not really hurt your trade. No one stock has more than a 3% weighting. 

  3. The Nifty Future  is much harder to manipulate than individual stocks due to its size and volume of trading.

  4. Nifty Future move much more smoothly around support and resistance areas than most individual stocks.

  5. Nifty 50 has its own survivor bias replacing it holding of falling stocks with new ones that are growing in market capitalization.

  6. You do not have to deal with earnings surprises like in individual stocks.

  7. Due to the indexes much lower volatility you can trade larger position sizes with much less risk.

  8. The Nifty options are very liquid with very tight big ask spreads.

  9. With this index you can trade the trend of the stock market itself which is a much broader bet than any one company or sector.

  10. Margin required for trading Nifty Future is quiet less as compared to Stock Futures

Nifty 2014 based on 2009 Election move

Using the Similarity in Price Action of Year 2009 we are trying to analyse the way forward for Nifty in remaining of 2014

Bulls have been riding the Dalal street from Feb Month and got in momentum after May 16 election results. Analyst on Streets have been talking about 8500/9000 odd levels and every dip coming in market is getting bought into.
I tried to analyse the chart of Nifty from 2009 after election results and interesting study came out.
After 2009 election as seen in below chart Nifty saw 2 UC’s followed by a period of upward sloping from consolidation between two trend-lines and then the upside breakout. The post pattern above the breakout resulted in move towards 123.6% of the channel width which formed an important top @ 6336 and than 1000 point correction in Nifty.
Post 20092014 Scenario
In 2014 scenario also after the rise on 16 May Nifty is trading in sharp rise on Election result day followed by period of upward sloping consolidation with an upside breakout. So if we are applying the Election time concept properly  the upside target projecting 100 % of channel @ 8240 and in maximum case  123.6% of channel will come near 8340. So except some major top to be formed in this range and we can expect a decent correction.
2014 Post

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Nifty August Series Expiry view

Nifty August Series Expiry view
  • Nifty  has done nothing from past 6 trading session and closing in range of 7875-7936. Series of Dojis around new high suggesting market participants are confused on next move.Also we have rising wedge forming on daily chart and most of market participants looking to see 8000 on Index . Will market oblige ?
  • Nifty Future Aug Open Interest Volume is at 88.5 lakh with liquidation of 16  lakh suggesting long liquidation and 42 lakh got rollovered to September series.VIX being very low suggests bulls are still overconfident and every dip is getting bought into.
  • Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 2.83  lakh core with total contract traded at 2.2  lakh. PCR @1.02
  • 8000  CE  OI at 1.04 Core  suggesting wall of resistance , 7800 CE  liquidated 5.3 lakh  suggesting bears cutting down positions  . 7900 CE liquidated 6.7 lakh suggesting bulls are making support on 7900 . FII’s bought 7.8 K CE longs and 21.7 K  CE were shorted  by   them. FII are shorting 7900/7800 CE, so is this an indication of expiry below 7900 ?
  • 7900 PE OI@ 59.5 lakhs so strong base @ 7900 .FII’s bought 8.7  K contract  PE longs and 5.2 K shorted PE were covered  by them.
  • FII’s bought 290  cores in Equity and DII bought 237 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 60.43.FII’s have bought 3.3 K cores and DII’s
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 7934 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 7778 and BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 15340 .

Buy above 7950 Tgt 7963,7980 and 8000 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 7933 Tgt 7919, 7902 and 7880 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Upper End of Expiry:7988      Lower End of Expiry:7879

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

India Top Court Rules Mines Illegal in Setback to Billionaires

India Top Court Rules Mines Illegal in Setback to Billionaires
India’s highest court ruled giving away coal mines to companies since 1993 was illegal, spurring concern mining permits may be canceled and deprive power and steel projects of fuel.
The policy of allocating 218 mines for captive use to companies including Hindalco Industries Ltd. and Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. without auctioning them didn’t follow transparent norms, a three-judge bench headed by Supreme Court Chief Justice R.M. Lodha said yesterday, after a report by the nation’s main investigating agency. The court on Sept. 1 will hear arguments regarding termination of the mining licenses.
Annulment of mining rights may lead to fuel shortages at several factories, including power plants, cement and steel mills, undermining Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aim to revive economic growth and curb blackouts in Asia’s third-biggest economy. Inadequate coal output has prompted companies to seek supplies overseas, as state producer Coal India Ltd. battles slow land acquisition and government approvals.
“The ruling has brought in uncertainty and if the situation prolongs, it could severely strain coal supplies to customers,” said Deven Choksey, managing director at K.R. Choksey Shares & Securities Pvt. in Mumbai. “I would expect the government to act on this matter in urgency and allow companies to retain coal mines on the basis of merit.”

Shares Tumble

Shares of metal and power producers tumbled in Mumbai yesterday after the ruling. New Delhi-based Jindal Steel plunged 14 percent to 253.45 rupees, the lowest close since May 13. Hindalco, the nation’s largest aluminum producer led by billionaire Kumar Mangalam Birla, dropped 9.7 percent to 164.85 rupees, the biggest decline in almost five years.
The policy of giving away coal mines to non-state companies caused a loss of 1.86 trillion rupees ($31 billion) to the state exchequer, the federal auditor said in August 2012. The Comptroller and Auditor General’s report on the estimated losses added to a series of corruption charges on the Manmohan Singh- led United Progressive Alliance government and prompted the Supreme Court to order an investigation by the federal investigative agency.
“We see significant downside for metal and power stocks if allocations are ultimately canceled,” said R.K. Gupta, managing director of New Delhi-based Taurus Asset Management Co., which oversees about $686 million. “This has the potential to hurt the India growth story as power companies are reeling under huge coal shortage.”

Bringing Clarity

The ruling may bring clarity in the mines allocation process and will be beneficial to the industry in the long term, Coal Minister Piyush Goyal told reporters in New Delhi yesterday. “I hope the work to deliver coal to increase generation and reduce imports will be expedited and the court’s judgment will go a long way in helping us achieve our goal of providing 24x7 power to people.”
Jindal Steel is evaluating the impact of the ruling on the company and wouldn’t comment further, it said in an e-mailed statement. Chanakya Chaudhary, Tata Steel spokesman, declined to comment on the ruling saying he hadn’t yet seen the court order. Pragnya Ram, spokesman at Hindalco, didn’t respond to an e-mail seeking comments.
“The news is negative for Jindal Steel and Hindalco,” Kunal Agrawal, analyst at BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) Ltd., said by phone from Hong Kong yesterday. “Hindalco was expecting to get a final clearance and start mining at Mahan coal mine and for Jindal Steel it’s Gare Palma coal mine.”

Thermal Coal

Jindal Steel is also counting on a final permit for its Utkal B1 coal block that will fuel its steel project in eastern state of Odisha, the first in the country to use gas produced from thermal coal to run a steel mill. Essar Power, controlled by billionaire brothers Shashi and Ravikant Ruia, and Hindalco have invested about $3.8 billion to build power plants and an aluminum smelter to be fueled by coal from Mahan coal mines.
A panel of retired judges may be formed to probe the case, the court said in a 163-page ruling.
To increase coal production, the federal government in 1993 started allocating mines to companies for their own use. The discretionary process of allocation would later come under criticism, forcing the government to amend the mining laws and adopt a policy of auctioning coal mines. The nation has yet to auction its first coal mine.
The Coal Ministry allocated 218 coal blocks between 1993 and 2011, of which it has canceled 80 permits for failure to meet production milestones, according to the ministry.

Saturday, August 23, 2014




IMPORTANT LEVEL 7940 7883 & 7835 (Blue Line)

Monday, August 18, 2014

BSE SENSEX The Party Is Over In Bombay

The Indian stock exchange, the BSE SENSEX, seems relatively neglected compared to its more famous counterparts in the US and UK. But with a country in excess of 1 billion people, I feel it should garner more respect on the world stage. Based in Mumbai, the home town of the great Sachin Tendulkar, this index has smashed it out of the park in recent years. Let's take a look using a bottom up approach beginning with the daily chart.

Daily Chart

BSE SENSEX Daily Chart
I have added Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Momentum indicators and what stands out like a sore thumb is the bearish divergences that have formed on its four, no less, previous highs. If that isn't a sign that this bull trend is in its final throes then I'm completely bamboozled.
I have added some Bollinger Bands and we can see price has been toing and froing in recent months between the upper and lower bands. All the while still nudging ever higher. Price now looks headed for the upper band once more. Surely, with those bearish divergences, this is the final thrust!
I have drawn a black uptrend line from the February 2014 low. A break of that line will most likely confirm the beginning of a bear trend. But will the bear trend be just a correction or something bigger? Let's move on to the weekly to see if that gives us any answers.

Weekly Chart

BSE SENSEX Weekly Chart
Well, this is interesting. I have drawn uptrend lines beginning from the lows in March 2009, August 2013, February 2014 and May 2014. That's four consecutive steeper trend lines. That is pushing it to the limit and generally means the end is nigh. Occasionally there might be one more trend line but four normally does the trick.
Also, the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) shows this last surge higher is getting weaker. The next weekly high, most likely this coming week, looks set to throw up a fourth bearish divergence. It's like the bulls know they're about to be slaughtered but just keep pushing forward with every last bit of energy they have, trying to delay the inevitable for as long as possible.
I have added a MACD which shows a bearish crossover with the red line now above the blue line indicating lower prices are likely going forward. It looks as if only a strong surge higher now will change that. Given the evidence gathered so far, that appears unlikely in my opinion.
Now let's move on to the monthly chart.

Monthly Chart

BSE SENSEX Monthly Chart
The main point of this chart is to demonstrate the extremes levels at which the BSE SENSEX is currently trading. Let's break them down.
Firstly, I have added moving averages with time periods of 14 (purple), 50 (blue), 100 (red) and 200 (black). We can see they are all ordered as per the great bull market that has been in force. Now look at how the 14ma generally stays close to price. It is only in the last few months that price has streaked away and not even this 14ma can keep up. Price is now like a rubber band being stretched to its limits. A big snap back could happen at any moment. The last time price diverged so much was in 2008 just before it plunged.
I have added a MACD and this also shows just how much price has diverged lately. I have drawn a green highlighted circle to show the last time this happened. It was right at the top in 2008 before calamity struck. But hey, this time it's different, yeah? Nup, not as far as I'm concerned.
The RSI also shows extremely overbought conditions. Keep in mind, this is the monthly chart and the longer the time frame the greater the indication.
Perhaps this month's candle will end up a bearish outside reversal candle. That is, the high is higher than last month while the low is lower and it closes the month in negative territory.
Also, as an aside, I did some little calculations of the bull trend from the 2009 low compared to the first great bull trend. The range from the 2001 low to 2008 high was 18612 points. The bull trend from the 2009 to present has just about mirrored that move. So far, this upleg has put on 18253 points. And a marginal new high now will close the gap further. That is just about a direct correlation. Not something to start jumping up and down on couches over a la Tom Cruise. It's more an interesting tidbit of information.
Now, let's wrap it up by looking at the yearly chart.

Yearly Chart

BSE SENSEX Yearly Chart
We can see from a low base set in 2001 at 2594, price has absolutely exploded since then to its recent high of 26300. That folks, is a ten bagger. Nice.
The low in 2009 did no structural damage to the bullish picture. And a higher high now is yet more confirmation of a massive bull market in play.
I have added a Stochastic indicator which shows very high or overbought readings. So a move down would certainly not surprise here. But what is very interesting is this high in the Stochastic is lower than its high in 2008. So we have a bearish divergence in the yearly chart no less. That is big stuff!
The daily, weekly and monthly analysis also suggests downward price movement is likely very close. So, where would any bear trend take price to?
I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan from the 2001 low to 2008 high and also Fibonacci retracement levels of the upleg from the 2009 low to current high. Now, the high may not yet be in place but I only expect marginally higher which would have no real effect on this analysis.
I have drawn a green highlighted circle which shows where the 76.4% angle intersects the 76.4% level. I see no better target for low on this chart. That intersection looks set to take place in 2016 at a price level around 12354.
That would then setup up the next higher low and set the scene for the next huge leg up in the following years. So, it isn't all bad.
The Little Master has reigned of India for the duration of the of this massive bull market. The sport of cricket is such a huge part of Indian life. His retirement in the last year just may be an ominous sign for not only the nation's cricket team but also its stock market.

Author: Austin Galt

Friday, August 15, 2014

CNX IT Weightage Stocks List 2014

CNX IT Weightage Stocks List 2014

Bank Nifty Weightage Stocks List 2014

Bank Nifty Weightage Stocks List 2014Bank Nifty index is the index traded on NSE based on the prices of 12 banks, below are the stocks along with their weightage, this weight can help us in identifying what would be the direction (Up trend or Down trend) of index if the major banking stocks like SBIN, HDFC BANK or ICICI BANK moves.

Bank Nifty Weightage Stocks List 2014

In the above list first 5 stocks has the highest weight in bank nifty index, so most of the time trend of these five must be considered as trend of bank nifty index.

Nifty Weight-age Stocks List 2014

Company NameLTP (Rs)Change (%)Volume (Nos.)Market Capitalization
(Rs Cr.)
Weight in Index
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd2,499.75-0.01789,028488,999.259.16
Oil & Natural Gas Corpn Ltd410.102.016,305,703350,731.906.57
Reliance Industries Ltd1,002.951.292,757,188324,005.626.07
ITC Ltd356.85-0.134,415,547284,028.305.32
Coal India Ltd356.450.963,036,124225,241.404.22
Infosys Ltd3,612.550.12845,310206,941.743.88
HDFC Bank Ltd826.701.762,968,306199,084.573.73
State Bank of India2,362.50-0.271,580,026176,324.903.30
Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd1,124.30-1.733,955,619176,252.013.30
ICICI Bank Ltd1,479.651.892,479,361170,907.693.20
Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd814.851.531,775,320168,606.043.16
Tata Motors Ltd484.602.346,349,274155,973.362.92
Hindustan Unilever Ltd714.55-0.58845,235154,458.632.89
Bharti Airtel Ltd365.20-0.922,780,421146,124.962.74
Larsen & Toubro Ltd1,484.102.101,500,498137,526.952.58
Wipro Ltd545.95-0.781,099,314134,652.682.52
NTPC Ltd142.051.505,018,448117,126.762.20
HCL Technologies Ltd1,538.00-1.42632,920107,901.482.02
Axis Bank Ltd377.801.042,695,10889,052.741.67
Sesa Sterlite Ltd289.502.825,283,07085,472.301.60
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd1,321.850.43882,66381,382.381.53
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd2,666.550.59311,54480,602.501.51
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd953.35-0.391,019,60573,442.401.38
UltraTech Cement Ltd2,632.550.94160,88872,302.661.36
Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd133.200.682,586,81069,606.301.30
NMDC Ltd174.450.201,373,83369,203.841.30
Bajaj Auto Ltd2,135.00-0.60335,93461,779.051.16
Cairn India Ltd318.601.131,393,57659,597.681.12
Asian Paints Ltd617.800.33644,13559,225.801.11
GAIL (India) Ltd425.703.381,842,80754,024.561.01
Lupin Ltd1,183.401.60525,02753,048.100.99
Tata Steel Ltd541.701.358,553,98252,571.600.99
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd212.951.556,735,43852,023.740.97
Tech Mahindra Ltd2,150.700.13304,44150,517.950.95
Hero MotoCorp Ltd2,510.55-2.64475,86750,143.670.94
Dr Reddys Laboratories Ltd2,755.750.53146,22246,882.160.88
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd613.351.611,464,72044,335.650.83
Bank of Baroda878.250.361,088,91837,983.820.71
Hindalco Industries Ltd178.60-0.8114,030,73736,854.340.69
Cipla Ltd448.601.872,478,44035,969.920.67
DLF Ltd196.200.987,124,60634,993.950.66
United Spirits Ltd2,362.302.83455,92134,361.830.64
Punjab National Bank910.350.41738,04432,933.890.62
Ambuja Cements Ltd210.902.532,366,20132,653.320.61
Grasim Industries Ltd3,326.501.9061,04530,573.490.57
IndusInd Bank Ltd548.251.61551,97628,847.200.54
ACC Ltd1,480.851.96180,88027,807.650.52
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd285.203.673,133,77526,134.230.49
Tata Power Company Ltd90.602.324,483,65824,530.950.46
IDFC Ltd145.400.974,764,59222,047.270.41

Nifty Weight-age Stocks List 2014
Nifty Weight-age Sourced From MotilalOswal Site