Palm oil to test supports, rise.

A break above Malaysian ringgit 2,672/tonne could push prices higher

Malaysian palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives were higher on Monday buoyed by strength in the energy complex, firm soya oil markets and a slightly weaker local currency. Higher energy prices could result in higher bio-diesel demand for palm oil.

WTI crude oil rose above $104 a barrel in early trade on Monday as increasing geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia supported buying sentiment. Market participants are also watching for cargo surveyor export data for the first half of April, due on Tuesday, to gauge global demand for palm.

CPO active month June futures are moving on expected lines.

As mentioned in the previous update, though prices have bounced from Malaysian ringgit 2,610/tonne, break below MYR 2,595 could drag prices towards 2,550-65 levels, from where a possible intermediate bottom can be seen. However, since prices have closed on weaker note, it could consolidate in the 2,595-2,650 range.

A decisive break above MYR 2,672 could hint at strength again which could potentially push prices towards MYR 2,730-35 levels being a strong resistance level in the coming sessions. Favoured view: Expect prices to edge higher either after testing the above mentioned supports or directly moving above MYR 2,660/tonne levels. Only a direct fall below 2,573 could dash our bullish hopes.

As mentioned earlier, prices met an intermediate wave target at MYR 2,135 and corrective decline to MYR 2,345-50 levels, followed by a sharp third wave move to MYR 2,575-2,600 materialised.

Price structures suggest a possible third wave move ending at MYR 2,690 and a corrective, fourth wave with targets at MYR 2,450 or even lower. The fifth wave possibly ended at MYR 2,898 and a corrective A-B-C in progress with an equality target at MYR 2,615-20 levels and an extension even to MYR 2,545-50 .

RSI is in the neutral zone now indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. The averages in MACD have gone below the zero line of the indicator hinting at a bearish reversal. Only a crossover again above the zero line could at resumption in the bullish trend.

Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test the support levels and climb again in the coming sessions.Supports are at MYR 2,595, 2,575 and 2,545. Resistances are at MYR 2,665, 2,705 and 2,735

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Refineries raise palmolein rates

Edible oils ruled firm on Monday, tracking firm Malaysian palm oil futures which extended gain for second consecutive day. Local refineries increased their rates for palmolein and soya oil by ₹3 for 10 kg on the back of higher demand. Sources said that local stockists came forward with fresh orders for forward purchase. 

Liberty, Ruchi and Allana together have sold about 750-800 tonnes of palmolein at ₹603-605 and 100-150 tonnes sunflower refined oil at ₹662. Resellers offloaded 150-200 tonnes palmolein at ₹600-601. Indigenous edible oils were also showing slight current on renewed demand from brands.

Vikram Global Commodities (P) Ltd quoted ₹630/10 kg for Malaysia super palmolein. Liberty was quoting palmolein at ₹608, super palmolein ₹628 and soyabean refined oil ₹655. Ruchi quoted palmolein at ₹605, soyabean refined oil ₹655 and sunflower refined oil ₹665. Allana was quoting palmolein at ₹604-605, soyabean refined oil ₹656 and sunflower refined oil ₹665.

At Rajkot, groundnut oil telia tin was flat at ₹1,110 and loose (10 kg) at ₹700. In Mumbai nominal spot rates (₹/10 kg) were: groundnut oil 735 (730), soya refined oil 655 (652), sunflower exp. ref. 610 (605), sunflower ref. 670 (665), rapeseed ref. oil 675 (672), rapeseed expeller ref. 645 (642) cottonseed ref. oil 658 (655) and palmolein 601 (598).

Chinese Yuan And Copper Tumbles As Money Supply Growth Plunges To 13-Year Lows

Today's 'bounce' in US equity markets is not translating into Asian equity market strength as China, India, Indonesia, and Thai stocks are fading. Copper is crumbling and just stopped out Dennis Gartman's long. 

In China, the PBOC withdrew 172bn Yuan (highest since Feb 2013) and pushed the currency back towards its weakest since Feb (which is the weakest since the PBOC began its erstwhile carry-killing-policy. Lots of odd moving-parts in Chinese data tonight with M2 YoY growth tumbling to 12.1% (missing expectations) - its slowest since Jan 2001 but Total Social Financing smashed expectations at 2.07tn Yuan (vs 1.86tn expected). It seems, try as the PBOC might to control it, credit creation continues to balloon in China.

China's Yuan is rapidly heading back towards 15-month lows... (despite Jack Lew's insistence that it strengthen)

Copper futures plunged below Dennis Gartman's long stop - closing out another losing trade (or winning if you faded him?)

M2 Growth tumbles to its lowest since Jan 2001...

BofA says Copper is on the edge.

"Copper is on the edge of resuming its downtrend," is how BofA begins it brief note on the evolution of China's crucial credit-collateral commodity (as we noted earlier). Copper futures limped lower today - fading even as the exuberant stock market ripped on 3.30pm fundamentals today.

The early April break of 3wk Bearish Wedge support says that the counter 

trend rally of the past several weeks has come to a conclusion and that the larger bear trend is poised to resume. HOWEVER, we need to see a closing break of the Apr-07 6577 low to confirm, until then, bears must stay patient.

Data for the week 12-Apr-14 to 18-Apr-14

Investors pay close attention to the announcement of these events because of the high probability that it will affect the direction of the market. You can get the same Economic Calendar at https://www.dynamiclevels.com/economic-calendar.

Exp.:	Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior:	Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today:	Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year:	Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price:	This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below: Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual:	Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.

Data for the week 12-Apr-14 to 18-Apr-14

Date	Time (IST)	Country	Data	Exp.	Prior	Exp. chg today	Avg. chg of last 1 year	Exp. Impact on Price
12-15 Apr-2014	--	China	Money Supply M2 YoY	13.0%	13.3%	-0.30	0.71	Neutral
12-Apr-2014	9-30 PM	European Monetary Union	ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference In Washington
14-Apr-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)	1.5%	2.10%	-0.60%	0.59	Neutral
14-Apr-2014	06-00 PM	United States	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.9%	0.3%	0.60%	0.63	Neutral
10-15 Apr-2014	--	China	Money Supply M2 YoY	13.0%	13.3%	-0.30	0.71	Neutral
15-Apr-2014	07-00 AM	Australia	RBA Meeting - April Minutes					Neutral
15-Apr-2014	12-00 PM	India	Wholesale Prices YoY	5.3%	4.68%	0.62	0.46	Bad
15-Apr-2014	02-00 PM	United Kingdom	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.20%	0.50%	-0.30%	0.00	Very Good
15-Apr-2014	02-30 PM	Germany	ZEW Survey - Current Situation	51.5	51.3	0.20	5.46	Neutral
15-Apr-2014	02-30 PM	Germany	ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment	45	46.6	-1.60	12.25	Neutral
15-Apr-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Trade Balance s.a.	€15.0B	€14.1B	0.90€	2.05	Neutral
15-Apr-2014	06-00 PM	United States	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.10%	0.10%	0.00%	0.26	Neutral
15-Apr-2014	06-00 PM	United States	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	1.4%	1.1%	0.30%	0.25	Neutral
15-Apr-2014	06-15 PM	United States	Fed's Yellen to Speak by Video to Financial Markets Conference					Neutral
16-Apr-2014	07-30 AM	China	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	7.3%	7.7%	-0.40%	0.48	Neutral
16-Apr-2014	07-30 AM	China	Industrial Production (YoY)	9.0%	0.0%	9.00%	0.67	Neutral
16-Apr-2014	07-30 AM	China	Retail Sales (YoY)	12.2%	0%	12.20%	0.78	Neutral
16-Apr-2014	02-00 PM	United Kingdom	ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)	7.1%	7.2%	-0.10%	0.07	Good
16-Apr-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	1.0%	0.3%	0.70%	0.65	Bad
16-Apr-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	0.5%	0.5%	0.00%	0.07	Neutral
16-Apr-2014	06-45 PM	United States	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.5%	0.6%	-0.10%	0.97	Neutral
16-Apr-2014	07-30 PM	Canada	Bank of Canada Rate Decision	1%	1%	0.00	0.00	Neutral
16-Apr-2014	08-00 PM	United States	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change	--	4.030	-4.03	3.45	Neutral
16-Apr-2014	09-55 PM	United States	Fed's Yellen Speaks to Economic Club of New York					Neutral
17-Apr-2014	06-00 PM	United States	Initial Jobless Claims	310K	300K	10.00	14.63	Neutral
17-Apr-2014	08-00 PM	United States	EIA Natural Gas Storage change	--	4.00	-4.00	33.60	Neutral

Minmetals Group Buys Glencore’s Peru Mine for $5.85 Billion indicating renewed confidence in Copper.

* Sold to a consortium of bidders led by HK-listed MMG Ltd

* Deal for $5.85 bln in cash

* Glencore says proceeds will materially de-leverage balance sheet

Glencore Xstrata has sold its interest in the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru to a Chinese consortium in a $6 billion cash deal, making it one of China's largest mining acquisitions in recent years.

The commodities trader said on Sunday it had sold its interest to a consortium led by Hong Kong-listed MMG Ltd , the offshore arm of China Minmetals Corp.

Hong Kong-based Guoxin International Investment Corp Ltd and China's Citic Metal Co Ltd are the other partners in the consortium.

Minmetals had been reported to be the preferred bidder for the Peruvian copper mine.

Glencore agreed to sell Las Bambas to secure approval from China's competition authorities for its takeover of Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata as Beijing feared the merged group would have too much power over the copper market.

A Chinese buyer had been considered a virtual certainty since Las Bambas was put on the block, given the deep pockets of China's state-owned enterprises and China's hunger for copper - it is already the world's top consumer of the metal.

Las Bambas, one of the largest mines in Xstrata's project portfolio, is due to begin production in 2015. It is expected to produce more than 450,000 tonnes of copper a year in its first five years and 300,000 tonnes a year thereafter.

Glencore will receive about $5.85 billion in cash upon completion of the deal. In addition, all capital expenditure and development costs since the beginning of the year until the closure of the deal will also be payable by the consortium.

Capital expenditure and other costs incurred since the start of the year were about $400 million as of March 31.

Glencore said proceeds from the sale will "immediately and materially" deleverage its balance sheet.

The deal, which is expected to close prior to the end of the third quarter, is subject to approval from China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) as well as approval from MMG's shareholders.

China Minmetals Non-Ferrous Metals Co Ltd, which holds about 74 percent of MMG, has agreed to vote in favour of the deal, Glencore said.

Glencore said it would continue to look for opportunities to reinvest capital and any surplus capital would be returned to shareholders.

Gold Jumps To 3-Week Highs, EURO Fades As Tensions Rise In Ukraine

Early weakness in US equity futures was rescued when Asia opened and JPY was mysteriously bid but it's fading back now as the UN session escalates into he-YouTube'd-she-YouTube'd. The bigger moves on the night so far are gold (which jumped back over $1325 and 3-week highs) and EUR which fell around 40 pips to 1.3850. We suspect as Ukraine's red-line deadline draws near the bid for safe-havens may accelerate somewhat.

Commodity trading hours set to get a ‘break’ : FMC

Commodity derivative trading hours, on platforms such as MCX and NCDEX, may soon go in for a break.

“We are planning to allow an hour or half-an-hour break for commodity trading as the trading hours are long,” Ramesh Abhishek, Chairman, Forward Markets Commission (FMC), toldBusiness Line. FMC regulates futures trading in commodities.

Currently, commodity trading on various exchanges can be done between 10 a.m. and 11.30 p.m. However, for stock spot and futures trading, the timing is 9.15 a.m. to 3.30 p.m. with 15 minutes extra time before the start of trade for the pre-trading session. 

Commodity exchanges also provide trading on Saturday from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m., but only for agri products. Stock exchanges are not open on Saturdays.Abhishek said a final decision on the break would be taken after consulting the stakeholders. In fact, the exchange officials held their first meeting with stakeholders on Friday. More meetings are expected in the coming days. It may be noted that currently there is no break in futures and spot trading of equities.

There is a feeling that breaks will not just help traders, but will also have a cooling effect on the market, especially when there is volatility. The concept of a break is being discussed at a time when the regulator is also working on revising the daily price limits for various commodities.

It has floated a discussion paper and sought comments from the public till April 21. Abhishek said based on the suggestions received, a decision would be taken soon.

Currently, the limit for agri-commodities is restricted to 4 per cent against 9 per cent for non agri-commodities. Agri-commodities include wheat, cotton, jeera, sugar and turmeric, while non-agri-commodities include gold, silver, steel and crude. The regulator has proposed that for agri-commodities, in which evening trade is permitted, the daily price limit could be the same as applicable to non-agri-commodity contracts.

It is also proposed that the initial limit for agri-commodities be fixed at 4 per cent. If this limit gets breached, there will be a cooling off period of 15 minutes and the limit will be relaxed once by 2 per cent.