Thursday, February 20, 2014

India may slash gold import tax to 6% before end of Feb

India may slash gold import tax to 6% before end of Feb
A new report citing a senior government official says India may cut its gold import duty to between 6% and 8% before the end of February.
India's finance ministry, fighting a crippling current account deficit and a weakening currency pushed up gold import duties tenfold – from 1% at the start of 2012 to 10% today.
WSJ.com reports the government is now considering reducing the import tax "as the current-account deficit is estimated to have fallen by almost half to around $45 billion this financial year ending March 31 from $88 billion last year.
Other measures including excise duties at 9% and new rules such as strictly cash only for imports, a rule that calls for the re-export of 20% of all imports, transaction taxes and even bans on gold-backed exchange traded fund investments have all stymied India's gold industry.
But the government import restrictions have led to a scarcity of physical gold inside the country which increased smuggling activity and sent premiums paid over the London price to rocket to as much as $130 an ounce during the gold festivals and wedding season.
Despite the curbs Indian consumption still rose by more than 100 tonnes to 975 tonnes last year while according to some estimates "unofficial imports" almost doubled.
The gold trade employ three million Indians and according to polls India's ruling Congress party is facing defeat at June's general elections.

Rusal reports record low aluminum output in 2013

World’s largest aluminum company-Rusal reported a drastic drop in its aluminum output during 2013. The company’s aluminum production touched record lows during the year. The total yearly aluminum production amounted to 3.86 million mt. Further, Rusal sees the output to drop further to 3.5 million mt during 2014.
The aluminum output during 2013 declined by nearly 8% over the year, when compared with the total output of 4.17 million mt in 2012. According to Oleg Deripaska, CEO, Rusal, the company has been successful in implementing the production-cut plans as scheduled. He further stated that the reduced operational levels are expected to be sustained throughout 2014 as well.
Rusal's total aluminum production capacity is 4.5 million mt/year across 14 plants worldwide. Of these 14 aluminum smelters, 12 have cut output year on year in 2013 anywhere from 5% to 90%. The exceptions were the Bratsk and Krasnoyarsk smelters in Siberia, the two largest production units with a capacity of 1 million mt/year each. These two smelters posted 0.2-0.7% output increases in 2013.
Rusal forecasts global aluminum consumption growth of 6% in 2014 over 2013. According to the company, China and other Asian economies are expected to grow strongly and the developed markets including the US and Europe should continue to show a healthy growth. Also, ex-China aluminium market deficit will grow from 570 thousand tonnes in 2013 to about 1.4 million tonnes in 2014.

"Polar Vortex" Shock

The "polar vortex" shock has arrived, only this time it is not in the form of another 12 inches of overnight snow accumulation but in the shape of household utility bills. A reader was kind enough to send us his just received ConEd bill for the month ended Februery 10. The result speaks for itself. It also speaks for where so much of US household disposable income will go in first quarter. 

And unfrotunately it will get worse before it gets better. On the back of a rapid decline in the "glut" of low cost natural gas (as stockpiles are drawn down to the lowest level since 2004) and the shift in forecast (that the freezing weather could last well into March), Natural gas futures are soaring (up over 10% today). This is the highest front-month futures contract price since December 2008 as "the possibility of periodic shortages now looms."

Arbitrage opportunities

Arbitrage opportunities
How will you react if someone says that there are arbitrage opportunities in a particular commodity?

If you are not familiar with the market, it could sound Greek or Latin to you. But if you are familiar with the market, you will immediately react, saying you are already tapping them.

Market behaves differently from one place to another or even one exchange to another. One reason why arbitrage is available is because no market is perfectly efficient.

When the inefficiency shows up in one market or the other, traders get an arbitrage opportunity.

Basically, arbitrage is buying a commodity in one market and simultaneously selling it in another, profiting from a temporary difference. This is considered a riskless profit for an investor or a trader.

For example, let us take the arbitrage opportunity in gold contracts that was available a couple of weeks ago on the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) and the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX).

On January 24, gold contracts maturing for delivery in April ruled at ₹28,815 for 10 gm on NCDEX. On MCX, they were quoted at ₹28,623.

On both these exchanges, gold is traded in a unit of 1 kg with prices being quoted at ₹/10 gm.

The arbitrage opportunity here is that a trader can buy one unit on MCX and sell one unit on NCDEX.

But things are not as simple as they seem to be. This is because you cannot interchange commodities from MCX to NCDEX or vice-versa.

Therefore, you will have to look for opportunity to square off the positions on both the exchanges. It will depend on how prices behave subsequently.

Arbitrage opportunities are available in spot markets too but you will have to take into account factors such as local taxes and transportation charges.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Russian giant Rusal sees Aluminum output to decline further in 2014

Russian giant Rusal sees Aluminum output to decline further in 2014
Russian giant Rusal expects its aluminum output to decline further to 3.5 million metric tons this year.
Company's aluminum production declined by 8% year-on-year 3.86 million metric tons last year, the lowest output since its 2007 merger with Sual.
“Last year witnessed the supply side adopting a disciplined approach to production, with Rusal successfully completing its production cut program which resulted in cuts of 316,000 mt, or 8%, compared to 2012. Reduced operational levels are expected to be sustained throughout 2014 as Rusal remains at the forefront of creating an efficient supply side dynamic,” said Rusal CEO Oleg Deripaska, in a statement on Tuesday.
The full impact of the production cuts, backed by growing consumption demand, have begun to be take effect, with the aluminum market – ex - China – moving into deficit at the end of 2013. This deficit is estimated to expand further in 2014.
Looking ahead, RUSAL expects global demand to remain healthy, with 6% growth forecast in 2014, supported by positive signals of returning confidence across all key sectors and markets. While demand fundamentals remain robust, it is vital that the supply side continues its disciplined approach to production. This will take time but there is no doubt that the industry is on the right path towards environmentally friendly and economically efficient production.
The company's aluminum production was the highest in 2008 at 4.42 million metric tons.

Monday, February 17, 2014

India's 2014/15 Interim Budget Highlights.

India's 2014/15 Interim Budget Highlights.
Finance Minister P. Chidambaram presented the interim budget for the fiscal year 2014/15 on Monday to cover expenditure until the government's term ends in May.
His speech was repeatedly disrupted by protests over the proposed division of Andhra Pradesh.

GROWTH
* GDP expansion in 2013/14 third and fourth quarters will be at least 5.2 percent

FISCAL DEFICIT
* Fiscal deficit projected at 4.1 percent of GDP in 2014/15
* Fiscal deficit seen at 4.6 percent of GDP in 2013/14
* Says need to bring down fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2016/17

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
* Current account deficit for 2013/14 projected at $45 billion
* Forex reserves to rise by $15 billion by end of 2013/14

BORROWING
* Gross market borrowing seen at 5.97 trillion rupees in 2014/15
* Net market borrowing at 4.07 trillion rupees
* Debt repayment in 2014/15 seen at 1.897 trillion rupees
* Ways and Means advances for 2014/15 estimated at 100 billion rupees

PRIVATISATION
* Target from stake sale in state run firms for 2013/14 revised to 258.41 billion rupees
* Target for 2014/15 at 569.25 billion rupees

SPENDING
* Plan expenditure for 2014/15 seen at 5.55 trillion rupees, the same level as the previous fiscal year
* Non plan spending estimated at about 12.08 trillion rupees in 2014/15

SUBSIDIES
* Total spending on food, fertilisers and fuel at 2.5 trillion rupees in 2014/15
* Food subsidy estimated at 1.15 trillion rupees, fertiliser subsidy at 679.71 billion rupees. Petroleum subsidy seen at 634.27 billion rupees versus revised figure of 854.8 billion rupees for 2013/14.

DEFENCE
* Spending raised to 2.24 trillion rupees in 2014/15, up 10 percent year on year

EXPORTS
* Merchandise exports seen at $326 billion in 2013/14, up 6.3 percent year on year.
* Agriculture exports expected to touch $45 billion in 2013/14, up from $41 billion in 2012/13

TAX PROPOSALS
* No major change in tax rates
* Factory gate tax to be reduced to 10 percent from 12 percent on some capital goods, consumer durables
* Cut excise duty on small cars, two wheelers, commercial vehicles to 8 percent from 12 percent
* Recommends excise duty reductions on larger vehicles
* Restructure of factory gate tax rates for manufacturing of mobile handsets

BANKS RESTRUCTURING
* Govt to provide 112 billion rupees capital infusion in state run banks in 2014/15
* Propose to set up public debt management office to start5 work from 2014/15

FINANCE MINISTER COMMENTS
Resurgence in exports, global economic revival and moderation in inflation point to better outlook for Indian economy in 2014/15.
Our objectives were fiscal consolidation, reviving growth cycle, and enhancing manufacturing, said Chidambaram. Manufacturing needed an immediate boost, he said.
I can confidently assert that the fiscal deficit is declining, the current account deficit is constrained, inflation is moderated; exchange rate is stable, he said.
India's economy now the 11th largest in the world, he said.

Weekly Economic Data for the week 15-Feb-14 to 21-Feb-14

Exp.: Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior: Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today: Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year: Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price: This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual: Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 15-Feb-14 to 21-Feb-14
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
14-15 Feb-2014 -- China Money Supply M2 YoY 13.3% 13.6% -0.30 0.71 Neutral
 
17-Feb-2014 07-30 PM European Monetary Union Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels          
 
18-Feb-2014 - Japan BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target - ¥270T -270.00T 0.00  
18-Feb-2014 12-00 PM Japan BoJ Governor Kuroda Press Conference After Rate Decision          
18-Feb-2014 01-30 PM European Monetary Union EU Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels          
18-Feb-2014 03-00 PM United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) -0.50% 0.40% -0.90% 0.45 Bad
18-Feb-2014 03-30 PM Germany ZEW Survey - Current Situation 44 41.2 2.80 5.46 Neutral
18-Feb-2014 03-30 PM Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment 61.5 61.7 -0.20 12.25 Neutral
 
19-Feb-2014 03-00 PM United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) 7.1% 7.1% 0.00% 0.07 Neutral
19-Feb-2014 03-00 PM United Kingdom Bank of England Releases Minutes from Feb 5-6 Meeting          
 
20-Feb-2014 00-30 AM United States Fed Releases Minutes from Jan 28-29 FOMC Meeting          
20-Feb-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Markit Manufacturing PMI 54 54 0.00 0.97 Neutral
20-Feb-2014 07-00 PM United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.6% 1.5% 0.10% 0.25 Neutral
20-Feb-2014 20-30 PM European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence -11 -11.7 0.70 1.04 Neutral
20-Feb-2014 09-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change - -237 237.00 33.60  
20-Feb-2014 09-30 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change - 3.267M -3.27 3.45  
 
21-Feb-2014 08-30 PM United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) 4.67M 4.87M -0.20M 0.16 Bad