Commodity Trading News And Technical Analysis Reports.

Monday, March 31, 2014

Weekly Economic Data for the week 29-Mar-14 to 04-Apr-14

You can get the same Economic Calendar at https://www.dynamiclevels.com/economic-calendar.

Exp.:

Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.

Prior:

Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.

Exp. change today:

Exp. - Prior

Avg. change of last 1 year:

Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.

Expected impact on price:

This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:

Very Good

Good

Neutral

Bad

Very Bad

Actual:

Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.

Data for the week 29-Mar-14 to 04-Apr-14

Date	Time (IST)	Country	Data	Exp.	Prior	Exp. chg today	Avg. chg of last 1 year	Exp. Impact on Price
31-Mar-2014	04-00 PM	India	Fiscal Deficit INR Crore	-	16452	-16,452.00
31-Mar-2014	07-25 PM	United States	Fed's Yellen Speaks at Development Conference in Chicago

01-02 Apr-2014	-	European Monetary Union	EU Finance Ministers, Central Bankers Meet in Athens
01-Apr-2014	06-30 AM	China	NBS Manufacturing PMI	50.1	50.2	-0.10	0.77	Neutral
01-Apr-2014	07-15 AM	China	HSBC Manufacturing PMI	48.1	48.1	0.00	0.97	Neutral
01-Apr-2014	09-00 AM	Australia	RBA Cash Rate Target	2.5%	2.5%	0.00%	0.05	Neutral
01-Apr-2014	10-30 AM	India	HSBC India Manufacturing PMI	-	52.5	-52.50
01-Apr-2014	11-00 AM	India	RBI Cash Reserve Ratio	4.0%	4.0%	0.00%	0.03	Neutral
01-Apr-2014	11-00 AM	India	RBI Repurchase Rate	8%	8%	0.00%	0.16	Neutral
01-Apr-2014	11-00 AM	India	RBI Reverse Repo Rate	7%	7%	0.00%	0.16	Neutral
01-Apr-2014	02-00 PM	United Kingdom	BoE Releases Financial Policy Committee Minutes From March 19
01-Apr-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Unemployment Rate	12%	12%	0.00%	0.07	Neutral
01-Apr-2014	07-30 PM	United States	ISM Manufacturing PMI	54	53.2	0.80	1.35	Neutral

02-Apr-2014	11-30 PM	United Kingdom	Nationwide Housing Prices PX (MoM)	0.8%	0.6%	0.20%	0.00	Neutral
02-Apr-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Producer Price Index (MoM)	0.00%	-0.30%	0.30%	0.45	Neutral
02-Apr-2014	02-30 PM	European Monetary Union	Producer Price Index (YoY)	-1.6%	-1.4%	-0.20%	0.45	Neutral
02-Apr-2014	08-00 PM	United States	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		6.619		3.45

03-Apr-2014	07-15 AM	China	HSBC China Services PMI		51		1.41
03-Apr-2014	07-15 PM	China	HSBC China Composite PMI
03-Apr-2014	10-30 AM	India	HSBC India Services PMI	-	48.8	-48.80
03-Apr-2014	05-15 PM	European Monetary Union	ECB Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.00%	0.07	Neutral
03-Apr-2014	06-00 PM	United States	Trade Balance	$-38.5B	$-39.1B	0.60$	3.21	Neutral
03-Apr-2014	08-00 PM	European Monetary Union	ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision
03-Apr-2014	07-30 PM	European Monetary Union	ECB's Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt
03-Apr-2014	08-00 PM	United States	EIA Natural Gas Storage change		-57		33.60

04-Apr-2014	06-00 PM	United States	Nonfarm Payrolls	200K	175K	25.00	43.00	Neutral
04-Apr-2014	06-00 PM	United States	Unemployment Rate	6.60%	6.70%	-0.10%	0.13	Neutral

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Indonesia, Freeport deal allows copper exports to resume

Indonesia has reached a deal over export taxes with U.S. mining company Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc , allowing nearly $4 billion worth of annual copper shipments to resume as early as next month.

Freeport and fellow U.S. miner Newmont Mining Corp have halted copper concentrate shipments since January, refusing to pay an escalating export tax that they say breaches their contracts.

The export tax was introduced as part of a series of mining rules, which include a mineral ore export ban, to force companies to build smelters and process raw materials in Indonesia.

"We have solved the problem," Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said at the Reuters ASEAN Summit. "We will link the export tax, which is more like an export fee, on to the progress of the smelter development."

To win a tax reprieve, Freeport agreed to pay the government a 5 percent security bond to build a smelter and sign supply agreements with smelter-building companies, Brodjonegoro said.

The final government regulation is expected to be published in the next few weeks, allowing Freeport to resume exports by the end of next month, he said, from the world's fifth-largest copper mine in remote Papua.

"We are continuing to work with government officials to seek a resolution to these matters as soon as practicable so that normal operations can resume without adverse impacts to our workforce, the local community and our customers," Freeport spokesman Eric Kinneberg said in an email.

Shares of Freeport ended 2.3 percent higher at $32.41 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Any mining company that takes action similar to Freeport's will also be given a reprieve from the tax, which is set at 20 to 25 percent this year and rises to as much as 60 percent by the second half of 2016.

Newmont, which owns the smaller Batu Hijau copper-gold mine in Indonesia, was continuing to work with the government to try to secure a six-month export permit, company spokesman Omar Jabara said.

Newmont was also in talks, along with Freeport, around supplying copper concentrate to a proposed smelter that Indonesian state-owned miner PT Aneka Tambang, or Antam, is considering building in the country, Jabara said.

Earlier on Thursday, a trade ministry official said it had approved Freeport's export certification but that it would still need approvals from the mining and finance ministries.

Freeport has reduced copper production at the mine in Papua by 60 percent, and its nearby mill was operating at half its normal capacity, due to the tax dispute.

World’s No.1 copper miner output fell to 5-year low in 2013

Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, said Friday production dropped to a five-year low and its profit fell by half in 2013 as declining ore grades and lower metal prices hit the state-owned miner.

According to 24Hours.cl (in Spanish), the company's copper production fell 1.5% in 2013, compared to the previous year, due to lower ore grades, harder rock and slightly more difficult production in deeper deposits.

The 1.62 million tonnes of the red metal reported excludes Codelco's stakes in the El Abra and Anglo Sur deposits, but it is the lowest production figure posted since 2008, when it mined roughly 1.47 million tonnes of copper.

"This is due to production falls at the Chuquicamata, Radomiro Tomic, Salvador, Andina and Gabriela Mistral (mines), which was partially compensated by an 8% increase at the El Teniente (mine,)" Codelco was quoted as saying.

The firm, however, showed some progress in containing costs. Direct cash costs last year fell 0.3% to about $1.631 a pound of copper, helped by lower power prices.

Currently the world’s largest copper producer hands all its profits back to the state. The government then decides how much to re-allocate to Codelco, often creating uncertainty in the run-up to the announcement and at times spurring disagreement over how much is ultimately assigned.

In December last year, the government handed Codelco $1 billion, which didn’t help the miner much, as the funds essentially amounted to an accounting increase, not fresh capital.

Heller said he hopes Chile’s President-elect Michelle Bachelet, who takes office on March 11, will give Codelco the fresh cash injection it urgently needs to counter declining ore grades at its aging mines, as well as to deal with increasing costs and low copper prices.

Early this year CEO Thomas Keller said he hoped Chile’s new president Michelle Bacheletwould give Codelco the fresh cash injection it urgently needs to counter declining ore grades at its aging mines, as well as to deal with increasing costs and low copper prices.

Chile expects mining investment to reach $112 billion by 2021, figure that includes the $27bn planned by Codelco. By the same year, the country’s total copper production is projected to reach an annual 8.1 million metric tons.

The red metal accounts for 60% of Chile's exports and 15% of gross domestic product.

Ukraine to pay 80% more for Russian gas

As of next week, Ukraine will pay nearly 80% more for Russian gas.

This means Moscow might charge Ukraine "close to $500 for 1,000 cubic meters of gas," according to the New York Times.

Ukraine uses gas for about 40% of its energy needs, and more than half of that supply comes from Russia.

Earlier this month Russia said it would no longer provide Ukraine with discounted gas. Under the agreement signed in 2010, Russian gas flowed cheaply into Ukraine and, in exchange, Russia was allowed to extend its lease on a military base in Sevastopol, Crimea. Now that Russia controls Crimea, it doesn't need the gas deal.

"Russia, because it committed armed robbery of Ukraine, and in this way in fact destroyed our bilateral agreement, wants to raise the price of gas for Ukraine,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk told reporters, as reported by the New York Times.

Ukraine has since secured $27 billion financing deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help stabilize the economy.

A golden opportunity coming in silver

Silver has been in a bear market for almost three years and the recent lack of strength suggests the metal could be headed for new lows. New lows are always bearish until the last one. Our technical work suggests that we should watch for a final low and end to the bear market in the coming months.

This chart plots every major bear market in Silver dating back 45 years (excluding the 1980-1982 bubble bust). It plots them on the same time scale as the current bear market. Excluding the 1980-1982 bear market, we find that the current bear market is inline for being the worst bear market. It is already the fourth longest in time and close to the second worst in price. The current bear is very close to the 1983-1986 bear. This chart and the 1983-1986 bear suggest that if the current bear breaks to a new low then its final bottom could occur about one month later.

Silver has very strong trendline support on the daily chart around $17. If Silver breaks to a new low then it will run into this trendline support which dates back 11 years.

In the lower column we plot a 12-month rate of change for Silver. Note how it often reaches or comes close to 100%. After lows in 2003, 2005, 2008 and 2010 Silver gained 100% in a 12 month period. Moreover, following the 1983-1986 bear market which closely resembles the current bear, Silver rebounded 89% in 10 months. Following the 2008 low, Silver rebounded 84% in 11 months. Let’s say Silver bottoms at $17.50 and rebounds 70% in 12 months. That would take it to $30. That would create huge upside in most silver stocks.

Below is a chart of our proprietary silver producers index which contains 14 stocks and is partially weighted by market cap. It contains all of the large, important silver companies as well as junior producers. We didn’t just pick the 14 best. This index recently peaked at neckline resistance and just below the 80-week moving average. Note how the 80-week moving average marked resistance in early 2012 and late 2012. A new bull market will only be confirmed when this index is able to surpass that confluence of resistance.

From a bird’s eye view, the bear market in Silver is just about over while the bear market in silver stocks probably is over as we don’t expect them to make a new low. However, the silver stocks won’t break resistance and confirm a new bull market until Silver has bottomed. Our analysis shows that Silver’s bear has a bit more to go in terms of price and time. We’ve laid out what we are looking for in Silver which is a new low and a bounce from 11-year trendline support. If that occurs at a time of extreme bearish sentiment then it is a buy signal. This prognosis, if correct means we have some time to research and patiently accumulate the best silver stocks which are positioned to benefit from a resumption of the secular bull market.

Source : Jordan Roy-Byrne - The Daily Gold

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Hedge Funds Vulnerable After Raising Gold Bets

After boosting bets on higher gold prices,hedge funds may hesitate from buying more of the metal on expectations for higher U.S. interest rates and unless the standoff between Russia and the West intensifies, UBS AG said.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows that speculators and other money managers increased their net-long positions, or wagers on a rally, to the highest level since November 2012 in the week ended March 18. The buying of gold futures and options helped prices reach a six-month high on March 17. It fell as much as 6.3 percent since then.

Gold rebounded from the biggest annual drop in three decades as Russia’s move to annex Crimea spurred demand for a haven. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on March 19 that that the central bank’s benchmark rate may rise about six months after monetary stimulus ends later this year. Prices rose 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system and cut interest rates to boost the economy.

“In the wake of the more hawkish Fed last week, the continuous expansion in spec positioning and with geopolitical headlines dampened, longs are likely feeling quite vulnerable here,” Edel Tully, a UBS analyst in London, wrote in a report yesterday. “The pace of increase itself has been quite dramatic. Simply put, this nature of positioning is unsustainable. We don’t think gold has yet found its price floor.”

Gold has climbed 8.8 percent to $1,311.63 an ounce in London since the end of December, after dropping 28 percent last year, and reached $1,392.22 on March 17. Speculators are holding a net-long position of 138,429 contracts, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Prices were above $1,700 when the wager was last that high.

Top industrial powers threatened stiffer sanctions to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from seizing more of Ukraine. U.S. and European Union have focused mainly on imposing asset freezes and visa bans on individuals. Putin said he doesn’t plan to further split up Ukraine after Crimea voted to join Russia.

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Weekly Economic Data for the week 22-Mar-14 to 28-Mar-14