Rupee Devaluation Against Dollar & Indian Prime Minister.

El Nino may spoil bull party

El Nino, which may affect India’s South-West Monsoon and result in drought, could derail the bull party in the equities market, analysts and brokers fear.

This week, the Austrlian Bureau of Meteorology said there was more than 70 per cent chance of the El Nino occurring, while the US Climate Prediction Center said there is 50 per cent chance of the phenomenon, resulting from rise in the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, setting in later this year.

Next week, the India Meteorological Department will come out with its projections of this year’s monsoon and chances of El Nino setting in.

May cause strategy change

Global investment banker and institutional securities firm Jefferies said El Nino is one of the extremely few extraneous events that could cause the new Government to change the focus away from investment-inducing, pro-economic growth policies.

“Overall, we are not too concerned about El Nino currently despite rising risks.

“While the situation should be monitored, there is no reason to reduce our positive bias on the market both ahead of and after the election, at least for the next three months,” it said.

In the worst case, the weather could become a substantial factor around the Budget time in mid-July, Jefferies said.

According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, the real test for the investors will be impact of the three big ifs facing the country — the polls, the El Nino and the dollar.

BNP Paribas said El Nino-driven rainfall deficiency could enhance profitability of plantation companies but depress margins of home and personal care consumer companies.

Inflation, GDP concerns

Singapore-based brokerage DBS on Friday said inflation in India may jump to over 8.5 per cent and GDP growth may slip to 5 per cent in the current fiscal if the much-feared El Nino threat plays out this year.

Dipen Shah of Kotak Securities said: “We continue to maintain that, in the short term, markets will continue to be volatile at current levels with a positive bias. Focus will shift to growth, interest rates and valuations once the political event is out of the way.

“Valuations are above the long-term average and there is a possibility of sub-normal monsoons. These can act as headwinds for the markets in the medium term.”

Unaffected earlier

El Nino is likely to set in only after July, but there have been occasions when India had gone unaffected by the weather phenomenon.

Already, Australia and parts of South-East Asia are reeling under hot weather and prolonged dry period. On the other hand, central and north-western parts of India have received rains and hailstorm during February-March, resulting in better water storage level.

Currently, the level in the 85 major reservoirs is more than the average seen in the last 10 years.

Your Horoscope Says 'Sell'

Traders, watch the skies. The stars say that the Nasdaq Composite Index's worst decline since 2011 this week may be just the start of a stock-market rout.

In the third week of this month, Pluto, Uranus, Jupiter and Mars will fall into an arrangement astrologers call a Grand Cardinal Cross, which is when four of the planets oppose one another in the shape of a cross. According to Olga Morales, who runs Astrology for Gann Traders from Melbourne, Australia: "This tension creates tremendous instability on our earth."

Traders don't seem like the types to check their horoscopes before deciding whether to dump stocks, so before scoffing, hear this. In the early 1990s, I was invited to the treasury department of the newly established European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Halfway through my visit, a computer pinged in a corner of the room, and a trader leapt into action, buying this and selling that. A software program that combined technical analysis with astrology had identified a market opportunity.

I saw my first broker note yesterday pointing to the forthcoming planetary commotion, albeit with a healthy dose of skepticism. Astrology advocates, moreover, claim that the Fibonnaci series technical analysts rely on for buy or sell signals derive from what used to be called the movement of the spheres. The web is littered with sites offering books, training courses and newsletters that can help you use the planets to make money in financial markets, suggesting that somebody out there is trading on star movements.

Here's the twist about the imminent Grand Cardinal Cross. The last time this constellation visited the heavens seems to have been in 1932. Morales has been sending charts to her subscribers highlighting the market moves from that year: The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 20 percent. So to some, the 2.45 percent decline seen so far this year is looking prescient.

"This clearly is good reason to consider getting a jump on the 'sell in May' crowd," says Henry Weingarten, who has run The Astrologers Fund Inc. since 1988. "If you believe the risk/reward of today's stock market is increasingly less favorable to bulls, and you dislike elevated risk, then either hedging, writing calls, or adding portfolio protection is cosmically prudent."

There's something else to watch in the heavens above and worry about in the trading rooms below: blood moons. This month features a total lunar eclipse of the full moon on April 15, and a solar eclipse of the new moon on April 29. Because of the way light bends around the earth before it reaches the moon, the moon can appear reddish in hue, hence the bit about blood, says Malcolm Bucholtz, author of the Astrological Trading blog.

Not all of the cosmic crowd are bearish. Ted Hammack of Sinewave Astrology notes that the coming arrangement doesn't include Saturn, which he calls "the big mover and shaker in mundane events." Saturn, it seems is "stationary this July at 16 degrees Scorpio" -- which means nothing to me, but to Hammack it says Saturn isn't making trouble and we're safe(ish).

"Hence I don't think the current Grand Cross will show up primarily in the global financial markets unless the geopolitical trends -- Russia in Ukraine, global earthquakes etc. -- get out of hand," Hammack says.

I will leave the final word, though, to Bucholtz of Astrological Trading: "You will know the height of stupidity has been reached when you hear Bloomberg and CNBC talking about blood red moons."

Article By Mark Gilbert

Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014

It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.

“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it."

Unfortunately Spitznagel isn’t alone.

“We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.” 

Faber doesn’t hesitate to put the blame squarely on President Obama’s big government policies and the Federal Reserve’s risky low-rate policies, which, he says, “penalize the income earners, the savers who save, your parents — why should your parents be forced to speculate in stocks and in real estate and everything under the sun?” 

Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total-Market-Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment. 

So with an inevitable crash looming, what are Main Street investors to do?

One option is to sell all your stocks and stuff your money under the mattress, and another option is to risk everything and ride out the storm.

But according to Sean Hyman, founder of Absolute Profits, there is a third option.

“There are specific sectors of the market that are all but guaranteed to perform well during the next few months,” Hyman explains. “Getting out of stocks now could be costly.”

How can Hyman be so sure?

He has access to a secret Wall Street calendar that has beat the overall market by 250% since 1968. This calendar simply lists 19 investments (based on sectors of the market) and 38 dates to buy and sell them, and by doing so, one could turn $1,000 into as much as $300,000 in a 10-year time frame. 

In a 2012 interview on Bloomberg Television, Hyman correctly predicted that Best Buy would drop down to $11 a share and then it would rally back up to $40 a share over the next few months. The stock did exactly what Hyman predicted.

Then, during a Fox Business interview with Gerri Willis in early 2013, he forecast that the market would rally to new highs of 15,000 despite the massive sell-off that was haunting investors. The stock market almost immediately rebounded and hit Hyman’s targets.

“A lot of people think I am lucky,” Sean said. “But it has nothing to do with luck. It has everything to do with certain tools I use. Tools like the secret Wall Street calendar and my Crash Alert System.”

With more financial uncertainty that ever, thousands of people are flocking to Hyman for his guidance. He has over 114,000 subscribers to his monthly newsletter, and his investment videos have been seen millions of times.


Read full news on Newsmax.com 

Aluminum industry says auto demand will provide biggest wave since beverage cans

The aluminum industry expects the automotive sector will generate the biggest wave of new demand since manufacturers started using the lightweight metal to make beverage cans.

“For us, it’s equivalent to the invention of the (aluminum) can which was introduced to many markets about 50 years ago,” said Aluminum association of Canada president Jean Simard Friday.

Automaker giant Ford plans on reducing the weight of its F-150 pickup truck by increasing the amount of aluminum used to 315 kilograms from 45 kg on current models.

Simard called the move a “game-changer,” prompting competitor General Motors to become less reliant on heavier steel for some of its models.

Aluminum producers have faced a rough few years with high inventories causing prices to crater.

But industry leaders say that the longer-term outlook for aluminum is brighter, largely due to big changes in the transportation industry.

They say vehicles such as cars, trucks, buses and planes already consume about one-quarter of global aluminum production each year but demand from the transportation sector is expected to grow by four to six per cent annually.

Demand is also expected to be spurred by new fuel efficiency standards in the United States.

Aircraft manufacturers including Bombardier are also increasing the use of aluminum and composite materials on their new products to reduce fuel consumption. The electrification of bus networks is also prompting transit companies to use more aluminum.

Representatives from Rio Tinto Alcan, Alcoa and the Alouette smelter said Friday they will press Quebec’s new Liberal government to lower electricity rates to make aluminum production in the province more globally competitive.

But Alouette CEO Andre Martel says he doesn’t expect the tone of negotiations will change much with the change of government.

The large smelter and other producers are seeking “significant” rate reductions that would allow facilities to be expanded, and create new jobs.

Martel declined to say what rates it is seeking, noting they must be globally competitive.

In February, Alcoa reached a rate deal with the Parti Quebecois after threatening to close three Quebec smelters if Hydro-Quebec didn’t lower its electricity rates.

Rio Tinto Alcan is also seeking a reduction to compete with lower cost production in the Middle East.

“We are always in discussions with Hydro-Quebec because when we implement plants we are doing that for 50, 60, 70 years so we need to always be able to predict the future,” said Jacques.

Is This Why Copper Is Tanking?

From "world renowned" Dennis Gartman's letter to investors (sent overnight):  

"NEW RECOMMENDATION: our interest in copper is piqued and we’ll “punt” copper this morning from the long side, buying May copper at or near to $3.0630/lb. as we can, with stops at this morning’s low of $3.025. We look for copper to make a run to $3.15 or even higher and on a close above $3.07 today… if possible... we’d add a 2nd unit to the trade."

Sure enough, first thing this morning:

Europe Folds As Putin Tells It To Pay Ukraine's Gazprom Bill, Or Else ...

Another day ending in "y" means another day in which Putin plays the G(roup of most insolvent countries)-7 like a fiddle.

The latest: Europe should provide aid to Ukraine to ensure uninterrupted natural-gas deliveries to the region, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman said as reported by Bloomberg.

"Russia is the only country helping Ukraine’s economy with energy supplies that are not paid for,"  Dmitry Peskov told reporters today in Moscow,  commenting on President Vladimir Putin’s letter yesterday to 18 European heads of state. “The letter is a call to immediately review this situation, which is absurd on the one hand and critical on the other.

Said otherwise: PUTIN SAYS EUROPE GAS TRANSIT DEPENDS ON UKRAINE: IFX

Or, as we explained yesterday, Russia is quite happy to keep the EU gas flowing... as long as Ukraine has enough gas in storage to assure Gazprom it won't syphon off gas destined for Europe. So how much gas does Ukraine need to pre-stock? About $4-5 billion worth. The problem is that Ukraine doesn't have a dime to spend on gas.

So putting the question aside if Ukraine will or won't import even one bcf of Russian gas ever again (thanks to some fracking or US natgas exporting magic), what Putin just said is that if Europe wants an uninterrupted supply of gas it better find a way to fund Ukraine to the tune of up to $5 billion, or else the gas may just get shut off.

And guess what: Putin is about to win yet again:  

European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger is working on a plan to help Ukraine pay some of its gas bills to Russia, he told Austria's ORF radio on Friday, saying there was "no reason to panic" about Russian gas supplies to Europe.

"We are in close contact with Ukraine and its gas company to ensure that Ukraine remains able to pay and the debts that the gas company has to Gazprom do not rise further," he said, adding he would meet Ukraine's energy and foreign ministers on Monday.

"I am preparing a solution that is part of the aid package that the IMF, the European Union and the World Bank is giving to Ukraine and from which payment for open bills will be possible."