Friday, July 18, 2014

Base Metals: A rally may be overdone says Citi Research

Base Metals: A rally may be overdone
A rally in base metals may be overdone, said Citi Research. The London Metal Exchange Index is up 7.2% since June 12.
However, Citi does not believe that current supply-(and)-demand fundamentals justify this rally and expect prices to correct lower.
According to Citi, the rally has been driven by paper-market positioning on the back of improving macroeconomic sentiment, money inflows including those from commodity trading advisers, and anticipation of more positive supply/demand conditions next year, such as zinc mine closures.
“Rather, supply-and-demand fundamentals have actually weakened for a number of metals, including growing refined copper production, rebounding aluminum production in China, weak demand from real estate, and corruption investigations at China State Grid,” said Citi.
Citi sees improvement in market fundamentals for most base metals later in the year, but says the current rally has gone too far too fast.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Trafigura targets $8 billion India metals market with online store

Trafigura targets $8 billion India metals market with online store
Switzerland-based Trafigura has launched an online store in India to sell aluminium, copper and other metals, seeking a slice of the $8 billion market and becoming the first big commodities trader to cater to hordes of small manufacturers dotting the country.
Trafigura, co-founded by French billionaire Claude Dauphin, said it has been drawn in by India's primary metals market that is forecast to grow at up to 8 percent a year.
Small and medium businesses contribute to more than a third of the market, but most of them depend on traditional methods of procurement. Per-capita consumption of nearly all metals in India, Asia's third-largest economy, is far below world levels.
The online store, named Lykos, will sell consignments of 1 to 24 tonnes of aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc at index-linked prices, Trafigura said in a statement on Wednesday.
It will invest $200 million to $300 million in Lykos over the next one year, a spokeswoman told Reuters in an email.
"There is a strong demand for refined metals such as aluminium, copper and zinc in smaller lot sizes, but currently the market suffers from lack of automation, erratic supply, poor quality control, complex transportation logistics and opaque pricing," said Raoul Bajaj, chief executive of Trafigura India.
Customers will have to pay cash to buy from Lykos, the spokeswoman said. That could limit its reach given that most small manufacturers are used to buying on credit, said a small metals trader. He did not want to be named.
Still, Trafigura's online platform could eat into the market share of smaller smelters and physical traders by attracting buyers at lower premiums, said a source at an Indian zinc smelter.
Trafigura customers will have to take delivery from warehouses newly built near manufacturing centres in Gujarat, Rajasthan and West Bengal. More warehouses are planned, it said.
Trafigura's move comes as storage of metals is in focus globally. The company and other metal merchants, Wall Street banks and the London Metal Exchange face more than two dozen class-action lawsuits alleging they artificially restricted supplies from warehouses and inflated aluminium and zinc prices. They have all denied the allegations.
More recently, Chinese authorities have launched an investigation into whether a private metals trading firm, Decheng Mining, and its related companies used fake warehouse receipts at Qingdao Port to obtain multiple loans secured against a single cargo of metal. Decheng has not commented on the probe.

Trafigura, incorporated in the Netherlands, has a vast portfolio of assets from African petrol stations, Texas docks to a Brazilian port and iron ore terminal, a private equity vehicle, vast offtake deals and almost 9,000 employees across 58 countries.

Zinc premium seen to stay with rising Asia demand

Rising zinc demand in Asia is pulling supplies East, sustaining premiums paid by the region's steelmakers for the rest of the year, said Japan's top producer.
Mitsui Mining & Smelting has seen surcharges for recent spot deals near the levels in its long-term contracts, said Osamu Saito, a general manager of the company's business department. Those premiums for annual supplies rose up to 70 per cent year on year, compared with a 15 per cent gain in 2013, the company said in February.
"The current higher premiums in Asia will remain at least until the end of this year," Saito said. "Supplies in the region will continue to remain tighter."
Japan's shipments are declining because of strong demand at home and South Korea's exports are falling while China's imports are rising, he said.
Japan's exports of special higher-grade zinc used to prevent steel from rusting have dropped to the lowest since 2011 while China has been buying the metal at the quickest pace in five years. Zinc stockpiles on the London Metal Exchange have declined 29 per cent to the lowest since December 2010, with inventories in Europe falling the fastest.
The metal has risen 12 per cent this year, the second-best performer among six main metals traded on the LME.
Morgan Stanley forecast global demand will exceed supply by 300,000 tonnes next year, a third annual deficit. Cash prices will average US$2,123 a tonne this year and US$2,348 next year, the bank said in a report.
China imported 310,974 tonnes of refined zinc during the first five months of this year, up 27 per cent from the same period in 2013 and at the fastest pace for that time of year since 2009, data from the General Administration of Customs show. China, which is the biggest user of the metal, may import up to 800,000 tonnes this year, compared with about 624,000 last year, Saito said.
China has begun pulling the metal from Europe as its demand rises and supplies from the region decline. Belgium and the Netherlands, which shipped no zinc to China last year, joined Spain among the country's top 10 suppliers this year, according to Mitsui Mining & Smelting's analysis of the figures.
"We've heard that some metal was shipped to China from LME warehouses in New Orleans," Saito said.
"If it's true, stockpiles are now moving into China from the US as well as Europe and this would give strong evidence that current premiums are high enough to cover costs" to ship the metal to Asia.

Alcoa anticipates 7 pct growth in global aluminium demand

Alcoa anticipates 7 pct growth in global aluminium demand
Alcoa, world’s third largest producer of aluminium forecasts a 7 pct increase in demand for the light metal globally for this year. The company predicts that there will be a supply shortfall of about 930,000 tonnes when compared to the previous year deficit of about 730,000 tonnes.
It also expects 8 to 9 pct growth in global aerospace in 2014 Q2 package, mainly due to the strong for both regional jets and large commercial aircraft. They also forecasts about 1-4 pct, 2-3 pct and 4-6 pct growth in automotive, packaging and building and construction respectively.
The company is expecting a steady growth of about 1-3 pct in transportation sector in 2011 due to the weak European market. At US$ 5.8 billion, the company’s Q2 revenues were same as to those recorded in the same period last year however were higher on a sequential basis due to the stronger volumes in the mid- and downstream, better metal prices and higher energy sales.

INFOGRAPHIC: 2014′s most promising alternative energy trends




The business world has recognized a need for viable alternative energy solutions, and investors are now pouring in their cash. Last year, a staggering $214 billion was invested in renewable energy worldwide.

Many nations and corporations across the world are taking steps to develop alternative energy solutions and the private sector is taking note of this opportunity.
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (NYSE: KKR), one of the world’s largest private equity firms, invested $567 million USD for a 33% stake in Acciona’s renewable energy efforts. Acciona is a Spanish conglomerate and holds major assets based on seven clean technologies in 13 countries: wind, CSP, photovoltaic, hydroelectric, biomass, biodiesel and bioethanol. The company’s major focus is on wind energy.
Giant firms aren’t the only ones who see potential in green energy investment. According to Thomson Reuter’s Lipper unit, alternative energy mutual funds and exchange traded funds returned an impressive average 41.6% over the 12 months through June.
Original infographic from: TollFreeForwarding.com

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

India's Gold imports were up by 65.13 percent to USD 3.12 billion, exports up 10.22 percent to USD 26.4 billion in June.

India's Gold imports were up by 65.13 percent to USD 3.12 billion, exports up 10.22 percent to USD 26.4 billion in June.
The country’s exports grew by 10.22 percent to USD 26.4 billion in June while imports stood at USD 38.24 billion, up by 8.33 percent, leaving a trade deficit of USD 11.76 billion, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry's data. 
    
Country's exports stood at USD 24 billion in June last year while imports were at USD 35.3 billion, the data showed.
    
Exports in May rose by 12.4 percent to USD 28 billion over the same month a year ago, while imports fell by 11.4 percent to USD 39.23 billion.
    
In the April-June period, exports grew by 9.31 percent to USD 80.11 billion.
    
Imports, however, dipped by 6.92 percent to USD 113.19 billion during the first three months of this financial year. Trade deficit during the period stood at USD 33.08 billion.
    
Oil imports increased by 10.9 percent in June to USD 13.34 billion. Non-oil imports during the month under review were up by 7 percent to USD 24.9 billion.
    
Country's gold imports were up by 65.13 percent to USD 3.12 billion in June this year from USD 1.88 billion in the same month last year.

Weekly Economic Data for the week 12-Jul-14 to 18-Jul-14

Data for the week 12-Jul-14 to 18-Jul-14
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
14-18 Jul-2014 -- India Exports YoY   12.4%   4.06 Neutral
14-Jul-2014 12-00 PM India Wholesale Prices YoY 5.73% 6.1% -0.28 0.46 Neutral
14-JuL-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) 0.5% 1.4% -0.90% 0.59 Neutral
14-Jul-2014 11-00 PM European Monetary Union ECB's Draghi Speaks to EU Parliament Committee in Strasbourg         Neutral
 
15-Jul-2014 -- Japan BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target ¥270T ¥270T 0.00 0.00 Neutral
15-Jul-2014 -- Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement         Neutral
15-Jul-2014 02-00 PM United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) -0.10% -0.10% -0.50% 0.00 Neutral
15-Jul-2014 02-30 PM Germany ZEW Survey (Expectation) 28.2 29.8 -1.60 9.00 Neutral
15-Jul-2014 02-30 PM Germany ZEW Survey - Current Situation 67.4 67.7 -0.30 5.46 Neutral
15-Jul-2014 06-00 PM United States Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6% 0.3% 0.30% 0.63 Neutral
15-Jul-2014 07-30 PM United States Fed's Yellen Gives Semi-Annual Testimony to Senate Committee         Neutral
 
16-Jul-2014 07-30 AM China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 7.4% 7.4% 0.00% 0.48 Neutral
16-Jul-2014 07-30 AM China Industrial Production (YoY) 8.8% 8.7% 0.10% 0.67 Neutral
16-Jul-2014 7-30 AM China Retail Sales (YoY) 12.5% 12.5% 0.00% 0.78 Neutral
16-Jul-2014 07-30 AM China Industrial Production (YoY) 9.0% 8.8% 0.20% 0.67 Neutral
16-Jul-2014 02-00 PM United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) 6.5% 6.6% -0.10% 0.07 Neutral
16-Jul-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Trade Balance s.a. €16.0B €15.2B 0.20€ 2.05 Neutral
16-Jul-2014 06-45 PM United States Industrial Production (MoM) 0.3% 0.6% -0.30% 0.97 Neutral
16-Jul-2014 07-30 PM Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1% 1% 0.00 0.00 Neutral
16-Jul-2014 7-30 PM United States Fed's Yellen Gives Semi-Annual Testimony to House Committee         Neutral
16-Jul-2014 08-00 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change -- -2.37 2.37 3.45 Neutral
 
17-Jul-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.1% -0.1% 0.20% 0.65 Neutral
17-Jul-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.5% 0.5% 0.00% 0.07 Neutral
17-Jul-2014 08-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change -- 93 -93.00 33.60 Neutral
 
18-Jul-2014 07-25 PM United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 83 82.5 0.50 2.48 Neutral