Monday, August 5, 2013

Weekly Economic Data 03-Aug-13 to 09-Aug-13

Exp.:Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior:Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today:Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year:Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price:This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very GoodGoodNeutralBadVery Bad
Actual:Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 03-Aug-13 to 09-Aug-13
DateTime (IST)CountryDataExp.PriorExp. chg todayAvg. chg of last 1 yearExp. Impact on Price
05-Aug-201301-18 PMFranceMarkit Services PMI48.348.30.001.90Neutral
 
06-Aug-201302-00 PMUnited KingdomIndustrial Production (MoM)0.7%0.0%0.70%1.75Neutral
06-Aug-201303-30 PMGermanyFactory Orders s.a. (MoM)0.01%-1.3%1.31%3.85Neutral
06-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesTrade Balance$-43.0B$-45.00B2.00$3.21Neutral
 
07-Aug-201303-30 PMGermanyIndustrial Production s.a. (MoM)0.30%-1.0%1.30%2.36Good
07-Aug-201304-30 PMUnited StatesMBA Mortgage Applications -3.7% 7.79 
07-Aug-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Crude Oil Stocks change 0.431M 3.45 
 
08-Aug-2013-ChinaTrade Balance25.95B27.12B-1.17B13.34Neutral
08-Aug-2013-ChinaExports (YoY)1.50%-3.1%4.60%5.65Neutral
08-Aug-2013 -ChinaImports (YoY)1.0%-0.7%1.70%6.92Neutral
08-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesInitial Jobless Claims336K326K10.0014.63Neutral
08-Aug-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Natural Gas Storage change 59B 33.58 
 
09-Aug-201307-00 AMChinaConsumer Price Index (YoY)2.8%2.7%0.10%0.43Neutral
09-Aug-201307-00 AMChinaProducer Price Index (YoY)-2.1%-2.7%0.60%0.61Good
09-Aug-201307-00 AMChinaRetail Sales (YoY)13.5%13.3%0.20%0.78Neutral
09-Aug-201311-00 AMChinaIndustrial Production (YoY)9.0%8.9%0.10%0.67Neutral
09-Aug-201312-15 PMFranceIndustrial Output (MoM)0.30%-0.40%0.70%2.02Neutral
09-Aug-201307-30 PMUnited StatesWholesale Inventories0.40%-0.50%0.90%0.47Good

Thursday, August 1, 2013

Financial Technologies crashes over 60%, MCX tanks

Financial Technologies crashes over 60%, MCX tanksShares in Financial Technologies (FT) plunged over 60 per cent, while Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) shares were locked down in trade after falling as much as 20 per cent on Thursday. FT is the parent company of MCX. Both these stocks traded at an all-time low. 

The sharp fall in Financial Tech and MCX followed the National Spot Exchange's (NSEL) decision to suspend trading in its one-day forward contracts till further notice. NSEL is an unlisted FT subsidiary dealing with spot contracts in commodities.

"This abrupt action has created uncertainty and doubt about continuity of trading on the Exchange and hence most of the participants started withdrawing from the market," NSEL said in a statement.

The government had earlier asked the spot exchange not to launch new contracts, creating uncertainty among traders, the NSEL said. The exchange also decided to merge the delivery and settlement of all pending contracts and deferred it for a period of 15 days.

Speaking to NDTV Anjani Sinha of the National Spot Exchange said rumours about halt in trading of "all" contracts and default are not true.

"Yesterday, we have issued a circular which says that for day-to-day trading operations in contracts other than e-series contracts (e-gold, e-silver, etc.), which are traded on the spot exchange, will be suspended. The settlement, delivery and payment for existing contracts will be re-scheduled and notified very soon," he added.

Mr Sinha said that the exchange has requested the government to issue a clarification after which there will be some clarity.

The spot exchange clocked an annual turnover of Rs. 600 crore in the year to March 2013, and had 67 running contracts on the exchange, with sugar and rice contributing to most of its volumes.

The sharp selloff in Financial Tech and MCX came on a day when broader markets rebounded after six days of sustained selloff. Financial Technologies shares traded 63 per cent lower at Rss. 199 on the BSE as of 11.25 a.m., while MCX shares were down 20 per cent at Rs.s 512. (FT made low of Rs 181 )
Market expert Sanjeev Bhasin told NDTV that stocks that have a history of bad corporate governance have lost investor confidence.

Financial Technologies shares have been under pressure since July 15, having lost 50 per cent of share price in the fortnight. Financial Technologies had also issued a statement last week against "rumours" in the market, but investors seem to have made up their mind.


"We would like to inform you that since July 15, 2013, there have been many malicious rumours afloat on various media. The series of rumours that are spread in the market have a pattern more particularly to spread on Friday and such rumours are spread by some unscrupulous elements with a design to depress the price of FTIL and damage its reputation.

Generally as a policy of the Company, we do not react on such rumours. However we request all the shareholders/investors to be careful about some unscrupulous players in the market and bear cartels are working against the interest of the Company. This is detrimental to the interest of investors in general and of around 47,000 shareholders of FTIL in particular.

We deny all such rumours and request all our shareholders to not to rely & don't be instrumental in spreading such rumours knowingly or unknowingly.

Monday, July 29, 2013

Gold, silver rally will be short-lived; downside risks persist.

Four weeks into the third quarter of the year, global commodity markets are still groping for direction.
gold-silver-crude-copper-Base-Metal-downside-riskA clutch of factors including demand and supply side issues, varying monetary policy stance of central banks, volatile exchange rates and geopolitics to name a few have created a sense of uncertainty.
There indeed are concerns over global growth.
In the coming months, communication from central banks especially in advanced economies will have a far reaching impact on commodity markets with potential effect on volatility.
At the same time, economic data support the expectation of stronger growth in the second half of the year in developed economies even as slowdown in China is a real risk.
How long and how far the Chinese authorities will tolerate the slowdown before taking action is still a key unknown.
Weakening Chinese activity is surely negative for metal commodity prices.
Be that as it may, global commodity prices in the first half of 2013 were at best choppy.
Over the week, all precious metals, except palladium, gained.
Gold was up 2.7 per cent, silver was up by 3.1 per cent, while platinum ended marginally higher.
Gold:In gold, the net redemptions so far this year are an estimated 630 tonnes.
Additionally, the third quarter is a seasonally weak demand period, especially in major markets such as India.
The Indian government is keen to ensure that gold imports are brought under fuller control to address the current account deficit.
According to technical analysts, gold momentum is bearish.
The metal faces resistance at $1,372 and then at $1,350 while support is seen $1,300 and $1,270.
Base metals: Serious concerns over Chinese manufacturing cuts that would result in lower industrial metals demand have weighed on the market. Without doubt, the implications of slowing Chinese demand are likely to dominate the base metals market sentiment in the coming months.
According to technical analysis, copper momentum is bearish.
Resistance is seen at $7,120 and then at $7,035 while support may be available at $6,835 and then $6,600.
Copper runs the risk of going toward the $6,750 area and then to range lows near $6,600.
Crude: Recent rise in oil prices may not hold for long as weak demand caps the upside. Demand in key consumption markets such as China may slow in the coming months as currencies depreciate against the US dollar making oil imports so much more expensive in local currencies.
Technically, the near-term downside risk to WTI is seen toward $103 and then potentially the $102 area, before signs of a base appear.

Weekly Economic Data 27-Jul-13 to 02-Aug-13

Expected impact on price:This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very GoodGoodNeutralBadVery Bad
Actual:Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 27-Jul-13 to 02-Aug-13
DateTime (IST)CountryDataExp.PriorExp. chg todayAvg. chg of last 1 yearExp. Impact on Price
30-31Jul-201300:00United StatesPresident Obama Speaks on the Economy in Tennessee     
30-Jul-201311-00 AMIndiaRBI Cash Reserve Ratio4.0%4.0%0.00%0.08Neutral
30-Jul-201311-00 AMIndiaRBI Repurchase Rate7.25%7.25%0.00%0.08Neutral
30-Jul-201311-00 AMIndiaRBI Reverse Repo Rate6.25%6.25%0.00%0.08Neutral
30-Jul-201307-30 PMUnited StatesConsumer Confidence81.081.4-0.404.00Neutral
 
31-Jul-201301-25 PMGermanyUnemployment Change0.0k-12K12.00K10.36Bad
31-Jul-201304-30 PMUnited StatesMBA Mortgage Applications -1.2% 7.79 
31-Jul-201305-45 PMUnited StatesADP Employment Change180K188K-8.00K46.50Neutral
31-Jul-201306-00 PMUnited StatesGross Domestic Product Annualized1.0%1.8%-0.80%0.56Neutral
31-Jul-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Crude Oil Stocks change -2.825M 3.45 
31-Jul-201311-30 PMUnited StatesFed Interest Rate Decision0.25%0.25%0.00%0.00 
31-Jul-201311-30 PMUnited StatesFed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference     
 
01-Aug-201306-30 AMChinaNBS Manufacturing PMI49.850.1-0.300.77Neutral
01-Aug-201307-15 AMChinaHSBC Manufacturing PMI47.748.2-0.500.89 
01-Aug-201301-18 PMFranceMarkit Manufacturing PMI49.848.80.001.53Neutral
01-Aug-201301-23 PMGermanyMarkit Manufacturing PMI50.350.30.001.37Neutral
01-Aug-201304-30 PMUnited KingdomBoE Interest Rate Decision0.5%0.5%0.00%0.00Neutral
01-Aug-201304-30 PMUnited KingdomBank of England Monetary Policy Committee Decision     
01-Aug-201305-15 PMEuropean Monetary UnionECB Interest Rate Decision0.5%0.5%0.00%0.04Neutral
01-Aug-201306-00 PMEuropean Monetary UnionECB Monetary policy statement and press conference     
01-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesInitial Jobless Claims344K343K1.00k14.63Neutral
01-Aug-201307-30 PMUnited StatesISM Manufacturing PMI52.050.91.101.35Neutral
01-Aug-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Natural Gas Storage change 41B 33.97 
 
02-Aug-201311-30 AMUnited KingdomNationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)0.40%0.30%0.10%0.62Neutral
02-Aug-201311-30 AMUnited KingdomNationwide Housing Prices PX NSA (YoY)3.10%1.90%1.20%0.60Very Good
02-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesNonfarm Payrolls185K195K-10.00K43.00Neutral
02-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesPersonal Income (MoM)0.5%0.5%0.00%0.17Neutral
02-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesPersonal Spending0.5%0.3%0.20%0.38Neutral
02-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesUnemployment Rate7.5%7.6%-0.10%0.13Neutral
02-Aug-201307-30 PMUnited StatesFactory Orders (MoM)2.3%2.1%0.20%3.36Neutral