Thursday, October 1, 2015

Copper price surges on South America supply cuts

Copper price surges on South America supply cuts
On Wednesday copper futures staged a comeback from six year lows hit earlier in the week as supply disruptions from top producing countries Chile and Peru lift sentiment in beaten down sector.
On the Comex market in New York copper for delivery in December surged as much as 4.7% to a session high of $2.3575 or $5,200 a tonne. Today's advance lifted the red metal out of bear territory for 2015, but at a more than 17% drop since December 31 following a 16% retreat in 2014, no-one's celebrating a bottom yet.
Today's big jump in heavy volume came after news from top producing country Chile.  Output at one of the world's largest copper mines, Collahuasi, will be cut by 30,000 tonnes due to current market conditions.
The mine, owned by Anglo American and Glencore produced 470,000 tonnes of copper in 2014, roughly 2% of global output. Earlier this month Glencore announced it's idling mines in Zambia and the DRC that would remove more than 400,000 from the market.
Also on Tuesday Peru declared a state of emergency in the area around the Las Bambas mine after clashes between police and protesters left four people dead and 16 seriously injured.
Minmetals acquired Las Bambas from Glencore in April last year in a controversial $6 billion deal tied to the Swiss giant's merger with Xstrata
Las Bambas is majority owned by China's Minmetals and the 400,000 tonnes per year mine is set enter production in January next year. Minmetals acquired Las Bambas from Glencore in April last year in a controversial $6 billion deal tied to the Swiss giant's merger with Xstrata.

New mines in Peru coming on stream this year and 2016 would double production to 2.8 million tonnes, placing the Peru in second place globally behind Chile.
Copper's move higher gave a bit of a lift to beaten down copper stocks with Glencore's (LON:GLEN) jumping 14% as it continues to recover from a more than 30% fall in London in Monday. Anglo American (LON:AAL) shares also also traded up in New York but year to date declines at the diversified miner remain more than 50%.
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), which vies with Chile's state-owned Codelco as the world number one copper miner in terms of output, was trading 5% higher in early-afternoon dealings but investors in the the Phoenix Arizona based company are nursing a 59% decline since the start of the year. Freeport announced a month ago it is cutting in half output at is El Abra mine in Chile and idling two US mines.
Copper price surges on South America supply cuts

The copper industry has a long history of these supply-side surprises.
Typical disruptions associated with adverse weather (Freeport has predicted lower output at the massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia related to El Niño weather patterns), technical problems, power shortages and labour activity coupled with falling grades and dirty concentrates at old mines (especially true in Chile) make forecasting a tough proposition.
The copper industry has a long history of these supply-side surprises
Add to those factors project deferrals, commissioning delays, slower ramp-ups, mothballing and downsizing of mine plans due to the declining price environment of the last two-three years and it becomes easier to understand why forecasts are all over the place.

Last week Goldman Sachs predicted the slump in the copper price could last years due to the slowdown in China and that prices will probably drop to $4,800 a metric ton by the end of December and $4,500 at the end of next year as the market suffers from oversupply of 530,000 tonnes next year 2016 rising through 2019 to reach 657,000 tonnes oversupply.
On the opposing side independent research house Capital Economics forecasts a strong pickup in the price of copper towards the end the year on the back of lower than expected mine supply growth and output disruptions.
Senior commodities economist Caroline Bain says Chile’s recent earthquake highlights these risk. Although output was only interrupted briefly, the earthquake and tsunami that struck the South American nation halted operations at the Los Pelambres and Andina mines, which together produce  600,000 tonnes of copper.
Apart from the effects of El Niño (low rainfall is behind the Grasberg output reduction, but on the other side of the ocean the occurrence causes flooding), ongoing strikes and protests, Bain also points to relatively low warehouse inventories which in the case of LME stocks represent only 2–3 weeks of annual consumption for the bullish case.
The house view at Capital Economics is for the price of copper to reach US$6,250 per tonne by end-year, rising to $7,000 by end-2016.

Monday, September 28, 2015

The Year of the Jubilee of Shemitah cycle

The Year of the Jubilee: 
One can not help, but be struck by the unique and very rare occurance of the Tetrad of four Blood Moons during the Shemitah of Shemitah's year, and now the Jubilee Year comes with yet another set of very unique features!Jubilee Cycles: 
Jubilee Years are based on the Shemitah Years which occur every 7th year.  Seven Shemitahs makes a Shemitah of Shemitahs.  (7x7=49 years is the Shemitah of Shemitah cycle period.)  The year following the 7th Shemitah Year is a Jubilee Year.  The Jubilee Year follows the 7th Shemitah Year thus becoming the 50th year.  However, if we keep the Shemitah cycle going every 7 years, then the next Jubilee year is also the first year of the next Shemitah cycle, in which case the next Jubilee year follows 49 years after the first.  However, if you start the next Shemitah cycleafter the Jubilee Year then you have Jubilee years occurring every 50 years, however, this breaks the 7 year cycle.  Bible scholars are in a disagreement are to which version is correct.   The following is based on the 49 year cycle which keeps the 7 year cycle in tack. 
The 40th Jubilee since Jesus Crucifixion:
The number 40 has special meaning in the Bible, and is repeated a number of times in the Bible.  It rained for 40 days and 40 nights as Noah and his family rode out the flood in the Ark.  The Great Flood was a punishment for men's sinful ways.  The Israelites wandered 40 years in the desert in repentance for disobeying God.  Jesus fasted in the desert for 40 days and was tempted by Satan.  After Jesus' Resurrection he remained for 40 days until he ascended to Heaven.  The period of time of 40 in the Bible is understood as a period of repentance and redemption for past sins.  So it is of special interest to Christians around the world that this Jubilee Year is the 40th since Jesus was Crucified in Jerusalem in 31 AD.  Will this 40th Jubilee finalize the end period of repentance and redemption for mankind, and usher in the start of a new period?  Many believers feel something important is about to happen from God.

2015 the year of Sevens
This Shemitah Year started with two cows being born with the number 7 on their faces.
The Shemitah year is the 7th year of rest.
2015 is the 7th Shemitah (7x7=49) since the last Jubilee Year, making it a Shemitah of Shemitahs.
2015 is the 7th year since the 2008 Stock Market Crash, where it went down 777 points.
2015 is 14 years since the 911 terrorist attack. (7+7=14)
2015 marks 70 years since the end of the Holocaust.
2015 is the 70th year following the end of World War II.
2015 marks the 70th year since the first atomic bomb was dropped.
2015 is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations.
Sept. 2015 is the start of the 70th year of the Jubilee since God ordained them in the Old Testament.

The 70th Jubilee, 2015-2016: 
The numbers seven and seventy both have special meanings in the Bible.  God created the Heavens and Earth in six days and rested on the seventh day.  God had completed his task by the seventh day.  From this God established the week which is completed on Saturday and is a day of rest.  In Daniel 9:24 we have the following:

Seventy weeks are determined for your people and your holy city,
To finish the transgression,
To make an end of sins,
To make reconciliation for iniquity,
To bring everlasting righteousness,
To seal up vision and prophecy,
And to aniont the Most Holy.  
This prophecy from Daniel is about restoring Jerusalem until the Messiah returns in a period of seventy!
In Matthew 18:22 Jesus tells Peter to forgive not just seven times, but seventy times seven.  So seven and seventy have the Biblical meaning of perfect completion.  
So this coming 70th Jubilee Year will very likely have very special meaning for mankind.  It could be God's time of Perfect Completion for Redemption.  Be prepared!  Be right with God.  

The Jubilee Year starts with a Partial Eclipse. 
The Jubilee Year starts with a Solar Eclipse: 
As the Jewish New Year begins on September 13, 2015, Rosh Hashana a Partial Solar Eclipse will be taking place over the Indian Ocean.  Jewish Rabbis consider a solar eclipse to mean a harsh period of time for countries of the world.   

This Super Moon Lunar Eclipse will be seen in Israel in the western morning sky. 

The Final Blood Moon of the Tetrad:
As seen from Jerusalem this Lunar Eclipse will be seen in the early morning sky just before sunrise.  The Moon will be a super moon which means it will apear larger then normal, and will we setting in the Western sky.  A Red Lunar Eclipse has the meaning of a sword coming for the whole world.  If the Eclipse is at dawn the calamity is considered to be forth coming.  This eclipse will happen the evening of Sunday Sept. 27 in the Western Hemisphere and the morning of Monday Sept. 28 in Europe, Middle-East  and Africa.  (See more details at the bottom of the Blood Moons page.)

Events during the Past 4 Blood Moons
  • Ebola outbreak in Africa and several cases in the U.S. 
  • People dying of the Bubonic Plague in the U.S. 
  • Unstable Global Economy with many economist predicting world wide Stock Market Crashes. 
  • Immigration of Refugees in Europe. A majority of them are young men from all over the middle east.  (Likely, an Islamic army invades Europe.)
  • Numerous Natural Disasters. Earthquakes, and fires. 
  • U.S. Government acts illegally numerous times by disregarding the Constitution, thus ending the 'Rule of Law' in America.  Movement to replace Constitutional Law with Islamic Sharia Law. (Sharia Law puts Christians, gays and woman in grave danger.)  
  • Moral Crises increases which offends God. 
    • Gay Marriage Legalized against the Biblical definition. 
    • Killing Babies and selling human body parts for profit. 
    • Government defends rioters and attacks on the police. 
    • The U.S. Government turns against Israel. (A danger to America, as God curses those that oppose Israel.) 
    • The U.S. Government is increasing hostel to Christians supporting law suites leveled against Christian businesses and Christians in the military. 
  • War between Israel and Hamas. 
  • Russia invades the Ukraine.  China building up its military navy and aerospace.  
  • The rise of ISIS threatens which destabilizes the Middle East, leading to mass killings of Christians, by beheading, and crucifixion.  (End time prediction of the Bible.) 
  • The U.S. Government signs a treaty with our enemy Iran who vows to destroy both Israel and America.  In the treaty we give our enemy 160 billion dollars, and lift economic sanctions on Iran.  There will be few if any inspections which will lead to Iran obtaining a Nuclear Bomb. 
  • Chinese and Russian warships and aircraft off the U.S. Coastline.  Rumors of a surprise attack on America being planned by our enemies.  
Shemitah Year Events of the Twentieth Century:  The rising up and the falling of empires. 
1917- America rises to power ending World War I.  The rising of the Communist State of the Soviet Union.
1917- The defeat of Germany. The fall of the Czar of Russia.  The fall the Austrian-Hungarian Empire.  The fall of the Turkish-Ottoman Empire.
1938- German Nazis attack Jewish businesses and burn Jewish Synagogues on Kristallnacht (the Night of Broken Glass.)
1945- Nazi Germany is defeated.  The Atomic bomb is dropped on Japan thus ending World War II.  Japan signs peace treaty the same week of the end of the Shemitah year.
1945- The United States becomes a military super power. The U.S. dollar becomes the world standard currency. The United States is the richest country in the world, and the world's largest lender nation.    1973- The United States Supreme Court declares that America's can kill their unborn babies.
1973- The World Trade Center is completed which is a symbol of Americas economic strength. 1973- America looses its first war to Vietnam.  Nixon takes America off the Gold standard.  This sets in motion the decline of the U.S. dollar.
1980- The U.S. Supreme Court bans the posting of the Ten Commandments in Public Schools.  Thus God is now completely banned from our public schools in America.
2001- The World Trade Center buildings (the symbols of Americas economic strength) are destroyed by an Islamic terrorist attack.  One week later Wall Street has one of its greatest collapses on the last day of the Jewish Shemitah Year.
2008- Exactly seven years later, Wall Street suffers its largest decline.  America is now the world's largest debtor nation.
2014-2015-  In Sept of 2014 we start a new Shemitah Year.  This happens in connection with a Tetrad of 4 Blood Moons which all occur on Jewish feast days.  As the United States has turn away from God and endorsed many sins, it is very possible that God's judgment will fall on America during this year of the Shemitah. 

Seven year cycle in the DJIA

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Copper leads fall in metal prices on China worries

Copper leads fall in metal prices on China worries
Copper led losses in industrial metals, falling by 2% while zinc dropped to a five-year low, on uncertain demand from ChinaThe plunge also sent the shares in some of the world’s largest mining companies tumbling while hurting copper-dependent economies from Chile to Zambia.
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), the world's largest publicly traded copper producer, fell as much as 4% at $10.11. Rival BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) was trading 4.3% to $32.68 at noon, while Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO) was down around 2.3%.
In Canada, First Quantum Minerals (TSE:FM) and Teck Resources (TSE:TCK.B) sank at least 9% as copper for delivery in three months dropped to a two-week low. While Lundin Mining (TSE:LUN) followed closely, losing almost 7% of its stock value at noon ET.
Copper and other metals have suffered from a slowing Chinese economy and a shift in growth towards sectors that require less commodity imports.
So far, copper prices have failed to react significantly to news of supply disruptions in Zambia and Chile, remaining more responsive to news from China, the world’s largest consumer, accounting for about 45% of world demand last year.

Friday, September 18, 2015

Codelco, Antofagasta halt operations after Chile earthquake

Codelco, Antofagasta halt operations after Chile earthquake
The quake is the latest natural catastrophe to roil mining in copper-rich Chile, which accounts for a third of global red metal output. (Image courtesy of USGS)
Mining operations were suspended at two major copper mines in Chile after a magnitude 8.3 earthquake struck off the coast of the country on Wednesday, killing at least five people and slamming powerful waves into coastal towns.
The closure of the mines, operated by Codelco and Antofagasta (LON:ANTO), pushed copper prices on the London Metal Exchange to two-month highs in early Asian trading as worries about supply disruptions offset lingering concerns about demand from China amid copper's longest rout in years.
Operations were cancelled for safety reasons as several aftershocks, including one at magnitude-7 and four above 6, continue to shake the region after the initial earthquake.
The companies said no damages have been registered at the mines, but operations were cancelled for safety reasons as several aftershocks, including one at magnitude-7 and four above 6, continue to shake the region after the initial earthquake.
By mid-morning Eastern Time, prices had come back down to around $5,340 as most miners with operations in Chile updated their status saying that workers were safe and mines were undamaged.
Codelco suspended open-pit operations at its Andina mine and evacuated workers at its smaller Las Ventanas refining and smelting division, as well as at the two northern ports of Mejillones and Barquito, as a precautionary measure. By Thursday morning, the state-owned company said (in Spanish) that Ventanas was operating as usual, while Andina remains halted until inspections have conclude, which is expected to happen later today.
London-listed Antofagasta said its flagship Los Pelambres mine, which produced over 400,000 tonnes of copper last year, will remain closed until further notice, though there were no reports of damage to personnel or equipment.
Chile, the world's top copper producer, is one of the most earthquake-prone nations in the world. It was hit by an 8.8-magnitude quake in 2010 and in 1960 recorded the largest ever on Earth, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Earlier this year unusual heavy rains caused flooding and forced producers to shut many minesin Chile's copper-rich north.

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Copper price rallies 6%

Copper price rallies 6%
In New York trade on Friday copper for delivery in December soared nearly 6% at the open, jumping to a seven-week high following the announcement of steep production cuts by Glencore and a surge in Chinese concentrate imports.
Copper changed hands for $2.448 per pound or around $5,390 a tonne, up 5.9% from yesterday's close of $2.312.
The red metal has recovered strongly from six-year lows struck late August, but remains down 14% year to date after a 16% fall in 2014. The metal peaked in February 2011 at $4.58 a pound or more than $10,000 a tonne.
Glencore (LON:GLEN), the world's number four producer of the metal, on Monday announced plans to suspend production at its copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, in a move that it says will take 400,000 tonnes out of the market.
"It just goes to show how far we have gone down for the industry to withstand further falls in the commodity prices"
Some 40% of the Swiss commodities trader's earnings come from copper. Glencore's move comes on the heels of cutbacks from US-based Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) which vies with Chile's state-owned Codelco as the world number one copper miner in terms of output.
Copper was also boosted after trade data from top consumer China showed  a huge improvement in country's imports of copper concentrate.
While imports of refined and semi-finished copper products were flat in August imports of concentrate surged nearly 20% from a year ago and 18.6% from the previous month. Year to date concentrate imports are up 12% to 8.12 million tonnes, while refined copper imports are down 8%.
Senior metals and mining research analyst at Sanford Bernstein, Paul Gait told CNBC following Glencore's announcement that "it just goes to show how far we have gone down for the industry to withstand further falls in the commodity prices":
"This is close to the bottom of the cycle for commodities; it certainly feels like that from my perspective, signs today are indicative of that," Gait said."
I think the pop today is really in relation to China and expectations of continued stimulus
Others were not so encouraging with Philip Petursson, managing director for capital markets and strategy at Manulife Asset Management telling Reuters that "at this point I would say you'd still want to be cautious on the miners as well as the energy sector:"
"I think the pop today is really in relation to China and expectations of continued stimulus. How much that helps to prop up the metals is subject to pretty wide debate. We're still in a supply glut situation."
The advance in the copper price led to widespread share price gains among copper mining majors with Glencore jumping for a second day for a 12% rally since Monday's open in London.
Freeport investors returning from a long weekend in North America chased the counter 6.4% higher in afternoon dealings with more than 31 million shares in the owner of the iconic Grasberg mine exchanging hands.
BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) also recovered with shares in the world's number one miner adding 4.7% in New York. The Melbourne-based company which relies on copper for around a fifth of its earnings is now worth $93 billion.
The world's second largest miner based on revenue Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) which is less dependent on copper than Glencore or BHP gained 5.1% in New York recovering from steep falls on Friday. The Anglo-Australian giant is worth $65 billion in New York.
The world's fifth largest miner Anglo American (LON:AAL) was the best performer on the day, surging nearly 7.6% in New York. Canada's Teck Resources (TSX:TCK) also made huge strides with shares in the coal and base metal company adding 8.3%.
Southern Copper Corp (NYSE:SCCO) increased 5.5% in value while investors in fellow South American copper producer Antofagasta's (LON:ANTO) celebrated a 9.9% surge in New York.

Glencore fights back — to slash debt by $10bn, halt copper mines in Africa

Glencore fights back — to slash debt by $10bn, halt copper mines in Africa
Mining and commodities giant Glencore (LON:GLEN), which in recent weeks become the poster child of how hard companies have been hit by a brutal sell-off in raw materials, is fighting back.
The Swiss-based company unveiled Monday a $10 billion package of debt-reduction measures, which include issuing up to $2.5bn of new shares, cutting dividends, selling assets and looking to offload a stake in its agricultural business to a third party.
Glencore also said it plans to suspend production at its copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, in a move that it says will take 400,000 tonnes out of the market
Glencore also said it plans to suspend production at its copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, in a move that it says will take 400,000 tonnes out of the market and potentially provide a boost to metals prices.
Investors reacted positively to the news, sending the company’s shares up about 12% before paring gains a touch to trade 6.5% higher at about 131 pence at 12:40 pm GMT.
At the same time, the announcement of a upcoming stoppage at Glencore’ Mopani operation in Zambia and the Katanga facility in the DRC had an immediate effect on copper prices, with the red metal climbing more than 1% to $5,192 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange.
Shanghai Futures Exchange copper rose 0.8% to 39,370 yuan ($6,183) a tonne.
Glencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg said in a statement that the measures announced today wouldn’t affect the firm’s core business activities and overall franchise value.
However, he acknowledged that “recent stakeholder engagement in response to market speculation around the sustainability of our leverage highlights the desire to strengthen and protect our balance sheet amid the current market uncertainty.”
BoAML upgrade
Bank of America Merrill Lynch upgraded the company's rating to neutral following the plan's unveiling.
"Unlike other management teams in the sector, Glencore has acknowledged its debt problem and is taking steps to address it," BoAML said in an e-mailed note.
"We think the plan goes some way to addressing some of our concerns on Glencore's financing, we do still have a question mark on Chinese demand and hence (only) an upgrade to Neutral. Even after the reductions, the company will still be quite highly geared," the note said.
Glencore swung to a net loss of $676 million in its first half of the year from a profit of $1.7 billion in the same period last year due to write downs in the value of its mines and oil fields, which have been hit by a price slump.
The company is now worth a fraction of what it was when it made its first attempt a year ago at a "merger of equals" with Rio Tinto (LON:RIO), which is valued at $92.6 billion.