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Saturday, June 8, 2013
Copper Production Consumption Stockpiles Inventories in 2013
In the long-term, many predict copper stockpiles to rise, prices to continue to fall, and global production to increase - leading to a severe oversupply situation. However, some recent forecasts for the other side of the equation - consumption - don't necessarily paint such a bleak picture.
Refined copper consumption in 2013 will most likely continue to be relatively flat in North America and slightly negative in Western Europe; however, India and China are both forecast to continue their high levels of consumption through the year and well into 2014/15. In fact, total Asian consumption is forecast to increase by approximately 4.5%-5% in 2013.
The below chart, presented by BofA Merrill Lynch at last month's World Copper Conference, does a great job of presenting their forecast relative to historical.
Yes, production will continue to increase - slightly outpacing consumption. However, their consumption forecast shows decent growth. Despite the supply/demand imbalance, global inventories will be returning to a level that is well within historic averages.