Base Metals Aluminium, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Zinc. Bullion Gold, Silver. Energy Crude Oil, NG. Forex USD, INR, Euro, Yuan. Economic Data Reports. LME, COMEX, NYMEX, MCX, Shanghai Markets.
Monday, March 3, 2014
Australia's gold output hits decade high
Australia's gold output hit a 10-year high last-year as lower gold prices forced miners to produce higher-grade deposits, according to mining consultant Surbiton Associates Pty which produces one of the largest reviews of the Australian gold industry.
According to Bloomberg, production rose by 18 metric tonnes to 273 tonnes in 2013 – "the highest annual output since 2003."
“Producers are responding to lower gold prices by treating less low grade material and this results in higher output and reduced costs,” a director at Surbiton said, as reported by Bloomberg. “The downside in processing higher-grade ore is that some lower grade material that was economic to treat at higher prices, is no longer profitable.”
The gold price dropped 28% in 2013.
Australia's gold output has surged since 2008 when it was the world's fourth biggest producer of the precious metal. Today the country ranks second, though its 2013 output doesn't come close to China's 430 tonnes.
Lead shines as supply tightens
Lead is one base metal with a distinctly bullish outlook going by market fundamentals. A deficit is forecast for 2014 and 2015, pushing the stocks-to-consumption ratio to its lowest level since 2010.
The projected tightness is underpinned by the US demand. The 400,000-tonne market deficit in 2013 is likely to expand to 500,000 tonnes in 2014 and continue into the following year, resulting from the closure of a primary smelter with 110,000-tonnes-a-year capacity.
Fortunately, growth in primary smelter production, outside China, is set to expand by about 100,000 tonnes, neutralising the impact of the US closure. Yet, with a projected 3-4 per cent increase in total ex-China demand, tightness appears inevitable. Then there is the question of non-reported stocks.
How large are they? According to International Lead and Zinc Study Group data, there is a 50,000-tonne off-warrant build-up in the US since 2012, which is a small buffer to the tightness projected in the region in the context of depleted LME stocks.
Supply drops
From a supply perspective, there is likely to be restraint in the growth of mine output following anticipated shutdowns of key mines around the world over 2014-15 despite potential spare capacity in China.
Lead output may be expected to grow at 3-4 per cent per annum this year and the next.
On the demand side, in countries such as China where new car sales have expanded at more than 10 per cent in recent years, demand for lead will be driven by both the continuing expansion in automobile sales as well as the steadily increasing demand for replacement batteries. It is this dynamic that supports a bullish forecast for lead demand among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries, anticipating growth in demand of 6 per cent for these countries. Importantly, Chinese demand for lead benefits from rapid expansion in the use of e-bikes in China and neighbouring countries. The e-bike batteries typically have a shorter life prior to renewal, raising the volume of replacement demand. Additional demand growth is expected to arise from power storage for the rapidly expanding network of 3G and 4G telecom masts.
As for India, demand for lead acid batteries is seen rising by 10-12 per cent a year as the country embraces solar power and e-bikes. However, domestic supplies are unlikely to expand as rapidly. So, demand may be rationed.
The US demand for lead acid batteries has grown steadily over the past three years at about 2 per cent a year. Within this overall demand, original equipment demand has expanded rapidly in line with the growth in new vehicle sales while growth in demand for replacement equipment (which makes up about 90 per cent of total battery demand) has grown more slowly. Demand could rise faster with fundamental changes to both recycling and new battery technology.
Price outlook
Despite deficit in the global lead market, prices have failed to make marked gains. In part, this can be attributed to the general weakness in the base metals complex. China could possibly raise its domestic output more rapidly, which can temper the bullish outlook. As for price outlook, in H1 this year, lead could average $2,200/t, rising to $2,300/t in H2.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
A Visual History Of Gold: The Most Sought After Metal On Earth
This infographic introduces the yellow metal and tells the story of how it became the most sought after metal on earth. Gold was one of the first metals discovered by ancient peoples and eventually gold grew to symbolize both wealth, royalty, and immortality. Gold began to be used as money by many cultures, but the Romans were the first to use it widespread.
The rarity, malleability, durability, ease to identify, and intrinsic value of gold made it perfect for money. While many civilizations throughout the world used gold for money, eventually its role would change with the coming of the gold standard system.
In modern history, gold was shaped by events such as Roosevelt’s confiscation order in 1933 and President Nixon ending the direct convertibility of gold to US dollars in 1971. Although gold is no longer the basis of the modern monetary system, there is more gold demand today than ever before.
Time to sell gold says BofA
Gold is rolling over. The impulsive intra-day decline from today’s 1345 high says that the trend has turned ahead of the confluence of long term resistance between 1350/1367. With the ADX at trend ending extremes, and daily momentum posting bearish divergences, target 1270, potentially long term triangle support at 1185.
Sell Gold at 1337, risking 1346, target 1270, potentially 1185
Monday, February 24, 2014
London copper falls to more than 2-week low on China demand worries
* ShFE copper hits more than 3-month low as China property worries bite
* Comex speculators cut bearish copper positions
* Coming Up: Germany Ifo business climate at 0900 GMT
London copper fell sharply on Monday to its lowest in more than two weeks as worries about credit restrictions to China's huge property sector hurt the demand outlook for metals.
Copper prices have traded in a $200 range for most of February, finishing last week little changed. But worries about curbs to property development soured sentiment on Monday and may act to contain demand for metals, said Ivan Szpakowski, China commodities strategist at Citi.
China shares sank to a two-week low early on Monday, dragging Hong Kong markets down, led by property and banking counters as mainland news reports stoked fears that banks have stopped extending loans to property-related companies.
"There appears to be new developments in that the banks are lending less, and some may have stopped lending for a limited amount of time to real estate developers, to companies providing raw materials for real estate development," said Szpakowski.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange <CMCU3> slid 1.2 percent to $7,073 a tonne by 0309 GMT. LME copper earlier in the day hit $7,055 a tonne, its lowest since Feb. 6.
Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 9.6 percent in January from a year earlier, easing from the previous month's 9.9 percent rise, according to Reuters calculations based on official data published on Monday.
Tighter policies in China, the world's top metals user, and the United States have fanned concerns there will be less cheap liquidity on hand for industry and investors, compounding worries that stuttering growth in the world's top two economies could derail a global recovery.
In the United States, severe cold weather and a shortage of houses on the market pushed home resales to an 18-month low in January, the latest indication economic activity has hit a soft patch.
Sweeping reforms are urgently needed to boost productivity and lower barriers to trade if the world is to avoid a new era of slow growth and stubbornly high unemployment, the OECD warned on Friday.
Prices could still climb, driven by technical buying, said Barclays in a research note.
"Sizeable short positions have built in copper, zinc and nickel, leaving the market vulnerable to short-covering rallies and raising the prospect of big rises in reported inventories if metal is attracted on-warrant by tightening in time spreads."
Selling spilled across to other metals. The most active lead contract in Shanghai hit a contract low of 13,910 yuan.
Weekly Economic Data for the week 22-Feb-14 to 28-Feb-14
| Exp.: | Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted. | ||||||||||
| Prior: | Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised. | ||||||||||
| Exp. change today: | Exp. - Prior | ||||||||||
| Avg. change of last 1 year: | Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year. | ||||||||||
| Expected impact on price: | This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation
of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have
categorized it as below:
|
||||||||||
| Actual: | Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release. |
| Date | Time (IST) | Country | Data | Exp. | Prior | Exp. chg today | Avg. chg of last 1 year | Exp. Impact on Price |
| 22-23 Feb-2014 | - | Australia | G20 Finance Ministers, Central Bank Governors Meet in Sydney | |||||
| 24-28 Feb-2014 | - | United Kingdom | Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) | 0.5% | 0.7% | -0.20% | 0.87 | Neutral |
| 24-Feb-2014 | 02-30 PM | Germany | IFO - Business Climate | 110.5 | 110.6 | -0.10 | 1.26 | Neutral |
| 24-Feb-2014 | 02-30 PM | European Monetary Union | EU-Brazil Summit in Brussels | |||||
| 24-Feb-2013 | 03-30 PM | European Monetary Union | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | -1.10% | 0.3% | -1.40% | 0.65 | Very Bad |
| 24-Feb-2014 | 03-30 PM | European Monetary Union | Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.00% | 0.05 | Neutral |
| 25-Feb-2014 | 08-30 PM | United States | Consumer Confidence | 80 | 80.7 | -0.70 | 4.00 | Neutral |
| 26-Feb-2014 | 03-00 PM | United Kingdom | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.00% | 0.34 | Neutral |
| 26-Feb-2014 | 08-30 PM | United States | New Home Sales (MoM) | 0.400M | 0.414M | -0.01 | 0.01 | Neutral |
| 26-Feb-2014 | 09-00 PM | United States | EIA Crude Oil Stocks change | 0.973M | 3.45 | |||
| 26-Feb-2014 | 09-00 PM | Germany | Merkel Meets With ECB President Mario Draghi | |||||
| 27-Feb-2014 | 02-30 PM | European Monetary Union | M3 Money Supply (3m) | 1.2% | 1.3% | -0.10% | 0.18 | Neutral |
| 27-Feb-2014 | 03-30 PM | European Monetary Union | Consumer Confidence | -12.7 | -12.7 | 0.00 | 1.04 | Neutral |
| 27-Feb-2014 | 07-00 PM | United States | Durable Goods Orders | -1.50% | -4.30% | 2.80% | 6.72 | Neutral |
| 27-Feb-2014 | 08-30 PM | United States | Fed's Yellen Testifies to Senate on Monetary Policy | |||||
| 27-Feb-2014 | 09-00 PM | United States | EIA Natural Gas Storage change | -250 | 33.60 | |||
| 28-Feb-2014 | 00-00 AM | Germany | ECB's Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt | |||||
| 28-Feb-2014 | 03-30 PM | European Monetary Union | Unemployment Rate | 12% | 12% | 0.00% | 0.12 | Neutral |
| 28-Feb-2014 | 05-30 PM | India | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.00% | 0.45 | Neutral |
| 28-Feb-2014 | 07-00 PM | United States | Gross Domestic Product Annualized QoQ | 2.5% | 3.2% | -0.70% | 1.11 | Neutral |
| 28-Feb-2014 | 08-25 PM | United States | Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | 81.2 | 81.2 | 0.00 | 2.48 | Neutral |
| 28-Feb-2014 | 09-00 PM | United Kingdom | BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks in Frankfurt | |||||
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