The REAL Reasons We’re Drifting Towards World War III

War: The Big Picture

All of the talk of war in the Ukraine and Syria is confusing … so here’s an executive summary:

• War is horrible for the economy, and makes the American people poorer

• The American people are overwhelmingly opposed to more war in Ukraine, Syria, Iran and elsewhere

• But you don’t have any say in issues of war or peace. The U.S. is an oligarchy … not a democracy or a republic

• Indeed, opposing war may get you labeled as a terrorist (background)

• War makes a handful in the military-industrial complex and big banks rich

• So endless war is a feature – not a bug – of U.S. policy

• Moreover, empires usually launch wars against up-and-coming rivals, and so the U.S. is headed on acollision course with China

• And the powers-that-be are desperate to ramp up war to distract the population from our economic problems

• The neoconservatives planned regime change in  Syria and other countries 20 years ago, and Obama is implementing the same plan.  Indeed, not only are the Neocons back … they never actually left

• But it’s not a party thing.  The Dems have been on board for many years as well.  For example, Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama’s foreign policy guru said in 1997 that the U.S. had to gain control of Ukraine

• The U.S. and NATO will carry out false flag after false flag until they can create a “justification” for war which will people believe

• They will support Al Qaeda terrorists in the Middle East, neo-Nazis in Ukraine and other bad guys to promote their military objectives

• The American media – including the big “alternative” sites – are always pro-war – and coverage of Ukraine and Syria is arguably even worse than in the run up to the Iraq war – so the American people are not hearing the real story

• Even supposedly “open voting” sites like Reddit routinely censor stories which challenge the status quo in any fundamental way.   For example, Reddit’s front page has consistently carried anti-Russian stories on Ukraine

• Stories which give balance or a broader perspective  are stopped before they get traction

That’s why we’re drifting towards WWIII …

Russia Warns West "Remove Forces"; Begins Military Exercise On Ukraine Border

UPDATE: Dutch fighter jets were scrambled after Russian bombers approached Dutch airspace; the Russian planes turned away

With both sides appearing to have entirely un-de-escalated and the truce deal now a thing of the past (besides a few hundred Dow points), the Russians are speaking up today - and are not happy:

• RUSSIA IS EXTREMELY SURPRISED BY KIEV AND WASHINGTON'S "DISTORTED" INTERPRETATION OF AGREEMENT REACHED IN GENEVA LAST WEEK ON DE-ESCALATION OF UKRAINE CRISIS - FOREIGN MINISTRY
• RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS KIEV AND WASHINGTON "CLOSING THEIR EYES" TO PROVOCATIVE ACTIONS BY NATIONALIST FORCES IN UKRAINE

And, on the heels of Turchynov's official restart of the so-called anti-terrorist operation, Russia is calling on Ukraine to pull back military from Ukraine's southeast... and rattles its sabre by undertaking a military exercise on the border.

Bloomberg reports,

Russia is surprised by distorted interpretation of Geneva accord from govts of Ukraine, U.S., RIA Novosti reports, citing Russia’s Foreign Ministry.

*RUSSIA CALLS ON UKRAINE TO REMOVE MILITARY FROM SOUTHEAST: RIA

Russia says Ukraine, U.S. closing eyes to provocations by right-wing extremists: RIA

Russia still believes partners are serious about resolving crisis in Ukraine: RIA

and in addition

• RUSSIAN MILITARY CONDUCTS MILITARY EXERCISE IN ROSTOV REGION, BORDERING UKRAINE - DEFENCE MINISTRY OFFICIAL

All of this sets the scene for an important set of meetings next week...

Russia ready to host EU, Ukraine energy officials in Moscow or consider other cities for talks, Russian Energy Ministry spokeswoman Olga Golant says by phone.

Golant confirms EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger invited Russia to gas talks

Slovakia planning talks on use of gas pipeline in reverse to supply Ukraine on Apr. 28 in Bratislava, Eustream pipeline operator spokesman Vahram Chuguryan says by phone

So to sum it all up:

1. The truce deal is dead
2. Russia blames Ukraine/West for breaking deal and misunderstanding it
3. Ukraine/West blame Russia for not unilaterally pulling back its forces
4. Russia is warning Ukraine to pullback military from Russia-held southeast Ukraine ("or there will be retaliation")
5. Russia is rattling its sabre by military exercises on the Ukraine border (after US sends another warship into the Black Sea)
6. Against all this tension, gas pipeline talks are set to begin shortly.

China state stockpiler buys bonded copper stocks -sources

(Reuters) - China's state stockpiler has bought at least 200,000 tonnes of imported copper stored in bonded warehouses after global copper prices dived to multi-year lows in March, said four sources with knowledge of the matter.

Further purchases by China's State Reserves Bureau (SRB) could help absorb the small surplus forecast to weigh on the global refined copper market this year and help support prices that have already dropped nearly 10 percent so far this year.

Benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange fell to $6,321 per tonne on March 19, the lowest since mid-2010, making imports attractive. Copper prices have since rebounded, trading around $6,640 on Wednesday.

Adding to the allure was the fall in copper premiums to a one-year low below $100 a tonne in March. Buyers pay premiums on top of cash LME copper prices to secure physical metal.

"Thousands of tonnes (bonded stocks) have already been moved into (SRB) warehouses," said the first source, who was aware of the progress of the bureau's purchases.

The SRB bought around 200,000 tonnes bonded stocks between March and April and will move all the stocks to state warehouses by the end of June, two sources said.

A third source, who has links to the central government, said the stockpiler had secured up to 350,000 tonnes of bonded copper. Most of the stocks were sold by banks that had taken over the stocks after financing deals ended.

The stockpiler had set a target to buy copper at prices below $7,000 and to purchase large amounts should prices fall below $6,600, the third source said.

China usually does not announce imports for strategic stockpiling or the quantity of state stocks. An official at the State Reserves Bureau on Wednesday would not comment on the agency's stockpiling plans.

Two of the sources said State Reserves Bureau was considering bringing forward its 2015 stockpiling plan due to the current low copper prices.

BUILDING INVENTORIES

The March-April buying was in addition to SRB's plan - completed in January - to import 300,000 tonnes of copper in 2014.

The January bookings would be priced on the average of LME copper on the delivery month plus premiums of more than $110, according to the three veteran industry sources.

Following the purchases made in January and March-April, the SRB has bought up to 500,000 tonnes of refined copper from the global market so far this year, sources said.

The third source added that the SRB also plans to sell about 200,000 tonnes of old copper stocks in the domestic market in 2014 for stock rotation. He estimated the SRB would hold about 1.4 million-1.5 million tonnes of copper stocks by end-2014.

The buying plans are part of an ongoing program to build copper stocks to 2 million tonnes by end-2015, said the source.

Lower availability after the SRB buys, coupled with seasonal demand from end-users, have pushed up premiums for bonded stocks more than 20 percent to about $110-$130 per tonne this week, from about $70-$90 in end-March, traders in Shanghai said.

Bonded copper stocks in Shanghai stand at about 650,000-700,000 tonnes currently, down from 700,000-800,000 tonnes at end-March, three traders estimated.

The stocks are typically estimated by traders as Beijing does not release the figure.

Supplies in the domestic market have fallen, forcing end-users this week to pay premiums of about 600-800 yuan per tonne to the price of the front-month copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange to get a hold of physical metal, traders said.

Congo State Miner Decides to Increase Copper Production by 45%

Congo’s state mining company Gecamines decided to increase the output of copper mining by 45 percent this year itself because the company itself seeking funds for new projects. A part of production comes from the world’s second largest mineral trader, Trafigura Beheer BV in order to process a copper tailings stock at Lupoto mine of Gecamines. The preparations are still going on and once it gets finished the state mine start the production which has the capacity of 3000 metric tons per month.

Once in 1986 Gecamines was one of the world’s largest copper mines. But, due to some mismanagement and Congo war completely destructed the company. This year, they are setting it to give a production rate of about 60,000 tons of copper which is higher than the earlier production. However, this will cause a great challenge to the state due to large power problems.

HKEx to launch copper, aluminium, zinc mini-futures this year

* HKEx plans futures settled in renminbi

* Traders say could rival Shanghai exchange's

April 22 (Reuters) - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd <0388.HK> plans to launch copper, aluminium, zinc and coal futures contracts this year, it said on Tuesday, the exchange's first foray into the fiercely competitive, burgeoning Chinese commodities derivatives market.

The company said it will introduce mini futures for the three base metals based on settlement prices of the futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) owned by HKEx and settled in cash with Chinese renminbi. They will trade in 5-tonne lots, rather than the 25 tonnes on LME futures.

The thermal coal contract will be U.S.-dollar denominated.

The move will aim to capture the growing appetite among investors in China for commodities trading and will offer currency convenience for its Asia clients. China is the world's largest industrial metals consumers and one of the largest producers, consumers and importers of thermal coal.

"The rationale behind our Asia commodities platform is to meet the needs of the industry here in Asia. This is just the beginning of our Asia commodities plan," HKEx Chief Executive Charles Li said.

If successful, the new products could also rival the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which sets the reference price for physical and futures metals trading in China. The copper, aluminium and zinc contracts are also 5-tonne lots and settled in renminbi.

While ShFE's metals turnover is still lower than the LME, the world's no. 1 metals market, trading the arbitrage between LME and ShFE copper contracts is one of the most active plays in the market.

"The contract could have significant implications for the LME/ShFE arbitrage," said Standard Bank base metals analyst Leon Westgate.

Li said he does not expect the contracts in Hong Kong to erode the ShFE's existing share of the market.

"I do not necessarily see it as competing (with the Shanghai contracts) because you have big users and have huge need to hedge," Li said in a news briefing.

The exchange hopes that the contracts would be a starting point for building mutual access to futures contracts in both Hong Kong and mainland China, Li said.

In the longer term, HKEx aims to licence some futures contracts from China's futures exchanges, such as iron ore contracts, to trade in Hong Kong, Li said.

The contracts will all be monthly cash-settled futures without physical delivery of the commodities. The LME also has LME mini copper, aluminium and zinc contracts in 5-tonne lots priced on the dollar.

The API 8 thermal coal futures in 200-tonne lots will be settled against the monthly average of all API 8 prices published in the Argus/McCloskey's coal rice index report in the expiring contract month. The contract will cover the spot month and the next 23 calendar months.

The index tracks the price for coal delivered to south China and is used for international physical and derivatives coal business.

To see the full HKEx statement, go to:

www.hkex.com.hk/eng/newsconsul/hkexnews/2014/140422news.htm

2014 gold price rally fades as ETF investors, hedge funds exit market

The gold price extended recent weakness on Tuesday losing sight of the psychologically important $1,300 level as investors rotate out of the metal into surging stocks.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery settled at $1,281.10 an ounce, down $7.0 from yesterday's close.

Earlier in the day the gold price fell to levels last seen February 10 of $1,275 an ounce. In contrast the US benchmark stock index, the S&P 500 recorded its sixth straight session gain.

Post-Easter trade remained thin with only 110,000 contracts changing hands against usual volumes of closer to 200,000 contract of 100 ounces each.

"Traders seem to have given up on gold as a provider of safe haven at the moment," Saxo Bank's head of commodity research Ole Hansen said in a note:

"Instead the focus remain firmly on the United States, where earnings and economic data continue to indicate interest rates will rise sooner rather than later.

"Hedge funds cut their net-long position back to February levels and total ETP holdings have dropped to a new 2009 low. So with the US healing, Chinese demand questionable and investment demand not showing signs of picking up, gold is back on the defensive."

Latest data from US Commodity Futures Trading Commission show hedge funds and other large investors added to bets that the price of the metal would fall for the fourth week in a row.

Short positions – bets that price would decline – held by managed money increased 15% to just under 28,000 lots in the week to April 15 according to CFTC data.

With the US healing, Chinese demand questionable and investment demand not showing signs of picking up, gold is back on the defensive

At the same time long positions were cut by 4,766 contracts which translates into a 8.5% decline in the net-long positions held by commercial traders in the precious metal to 90,137 futures and options.

Investors also continued to pull money out of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD), the world's largest physically-backed gold ETF accounting for some 40% of total holdings in the industry.

Holdings in GLD dropped to 792.1 tonnes or 25.46 million ounces on Tuesday, the lowest level since January and down almost 30 tonnes in less than three weeks.

The world's physical gold trusts have experienced net redemptions of more than 800 tonnes collectively last year, with the value of precious metals assets investments falling by a record $78 billion in 2013.

Here Come The Boots On The Ground: US Troops Heading To Eastern Europe

It seems the truce "deal" is well and truly dead...

• 600 U.S. TROOPS HEADING TO EUROPE FOR EXERCISES: PENTAGON
• U.S. AIRBORNE TROOPS GOING TO POLAND, LITHUANIA, LATVIA,ESTONIA
• U.S. MILITARY EXERCISES ARE IN RESPONSE TO UKRAINE CRISIS:KIRBY
• MORE MILITARY EXERCISES 'COMING THROUGH' NATO: PENTAGON

The question now, of course, is - what will Putin do in response to this action?

As for where these troops may be arriving from the answer is simple: that other US military intervention success story - Afghanistan. From Reuters:

The number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan may drop well below 10,000 - the minimum demanded by the U.S. military to train Afghan forces - as the longest war in American history winds down, Obama administration officials briefed on the matter say.

Since Afghanistan's general election on April 5, White House, State Department and Pentagon officials have resumed discussions on how many American troops should remain after the current U.S.-led coalition ends its mission this year.

The decision to consider a small force, possibly less than 5,000 U.S. troops, reflects a belief among White House officials that Afghan security forces have evolved into a robust enough force to contain a still-potent Taliban-led insurgency. The small U.S. force that would remain could focus on counter-terrorism or training operations.

That belief, the officials say, is based partly on Afghanistan's surprisingly smooth election, which has won international praise for its high turnout, estimated at 60 percent of 12 million eligible votes, and the failure of Taliban militants to stage high-profile attacks that day.

The Obama administration has been looking at options for a possible residual U.S. force for months.

"The discussion is very much alive," said one U.S. official who asked not to be identified. "They're looking for additional options under 10,000" troops.

There are now about 33,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, down from 100,000 in 2011, when troop numbers peaked a decade into a conflict originally intended to deny al Qaeda sanctuary in Afghanistan after the September 11, 2001, attacks.

Of course, it would be peak irony if the next country Russia decides to destabilize is none other than its old "buddy" Afghanistan, which lately appears far more amicable toward the Kremlin than the White House. It certainly would be an additional egg in the face of US foreign policy if Aghaniitan - so critical to the US controlled heroin trade - were to show a return to some of its Taliban roots for which it is so well-known.