Thursday, May 29, 2014

Global Nickel market surplus dropped over 50% over the year in March: INSG

Global Nickel market surplus dropped over 50% over the year in March: INSG
According to International Nickel Study Group (INSG), the surplus in global nickel market dropped significantly during the month of March this year. The global nickel market surplus totaled 3,600 tons in March this year. This is 52.6% down when compared with the surplus data during March last year. The global nickel market surplus during March 2013 was 7,600 tons.
The nickel surplus in March dropped when compared with the previous month. The global nickel surplus fell by 25% month-on-month during March. The production of Nickel during the month of February this year exceeded the monthly demand by 4,800 tons.
INSG notes that that the global nickel surplus during the three-month period from January to March this year dropped significantly over the previous year. The surplus narrowed to almost one-third during the initial three-month period of the year. The global surplus of nickel dropped from 38,900 tons during January to March 2013 to 13,400 tons during the corresponding three-month period this year.
The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) - an autonomous, intergovernmental organization established in 1990 and located in Lisbon, Portugal, is responsible for collection and publication of improved and latest statistics on world nickel market.

Declining supply levels likely to propel zinc prices higher

Declining supply levels likely to propel zinc prices higher
With market deficit set to worsen, the zinc prices may reach new heights in the near future. Analysts see bright chances of zinc outperforming the metal pack as nickel did in 2014. The Russian crisis and the Indonesian ore ban saw nickel prices surging nearly 40% YTD.
The declining supply levels are expected to drive the zinc prices higher. According to BofA Merrill Lynch estimates, the zinc prices are poised for a 15% upside from current levels by 2015. The zinc price is all set to breach $2,400 per tonne as early as next year. The zinc prices have remained almost flat since start of the year at around $2,100 per tonne.
MMG Limited that operates Century Mine in Queensland have already announced that the zinc production from their mines could drop to 465,000 tonnes this year, as against the 488,000 tonnes during 2013 and 515,000 tonnes during 2012. A series of mine closures scheduled for the second half of the year may aggravate the supply deficit.
On the other hand, the global economic recovery has bolstered the demand for zinc. The metal is mainly used for galvanizing purposes by the steel industry. Zinc is also used extensively in battery production industry and automobile industry. According to report released by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the apparent demand for zinc in China grew by 7.6% in 2013. Incidentally, China accounts for almost half of the global zinc consumption.
According to industry sources, the zinc output from mines is expected to remain subdued in the near future. On the other hand, global demand for zinc is poised to scale new heights. This could drive the zinc prices much higher, thus making it the star of the base metal pack.

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

SMART MONEY FLOW VS S&P 500

SMART MONEY FLOW VS S&P 500

Google Inc reveals self-driving vehicle prototypes designed in collaboration with several automotive partners

Google Inc reveals self-driving vehicle prototypes designed in collaboration with several automotive partners

Google Inc reveals self-driving vehicle prototypes designed in collaboration with several automotive partners

Google Inc reveals self-driving vehicle prototypes designed in collaboration with several automotive partners

The co-founder of Google Inc. – Mr. Sergey Brin revealed that the company has designed its own self-driving vehicles. The company developed a two-seated prototype that transports passengers at the push of a button.
Mr. Brin said in an official statement, which was cited by Bloomberg: “We took a look from the ground up as to what it would be like if we had self-driving cars in the world. We’ve worked with partners in the Detroit area, Germany and California.”
According to the company’s statement, Google has been working on the project for the past four years. The company revealed that the vehicle prototype lacks a steering wheel, accelerator pedal or brake pedal and basically looks like a gondola on wheels. The owners of such a car will be provided with the opportunity to set a destination address and the vehicle basically will do the rest by driving them there. The top speed disclosed by Google for now is limited to 25 miles per hour.
The company said that it works in collaboration with several automotive partners. For starters, the co-founder Mr. Brin said that Google Inc. has set a goal of manufacturing 100 to 200 test cars. The news comes at a time when there is a campaign aiming to make driverless vehicles more popular in order to make the roads safer.
The design of Google’s driverless cars resembles the one of Fiat 500 or the one of Mercedes-Benz Smart, but it won’t be equipped with a gas pedal, brake, steering wheel and gear shift. The only operations controlled by the driver will be pressing a red “e-stop” button that is intended for panic stops, as well as pressing a start button.
According to one of the analysts working at IHS Automotive – Egil Juliussen – the self-driving vehicles will gain greater popularity over the next twenty years. Mr. Juliussen said that the number of such cars in 2035 is expected to reach 11.8 million, and also projected that almost all cars are to become self-driving by 2050.
Google Inc. was 1.96% up to close at 574.87 dollars per share yesterday, marking a one-year change of +30.34%. According to the information published on CNN Money, the 41 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Google Inc. have a median target of 660.00, with a high estimate of 750.00 and a low estimate of 525.00. The median estimate represents a +14.81% increase from the last price of 574.87.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Protesters burn vehicles, buildings at New Caledonia nickel mine

 Protesters burn vehicles, buildings at New Caledonia nickel mineRioters torched vehicles, equipment and buildings at Vale's nickel mine in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia over the weekend, as anger boiled over about a chemical spill in a local river.
The $6 billion Vale plant at Goro in southern New Caledonia was closed earlier this month after some 100,000 liters of acid-tainted effluent leaked, killing about 1,000 fish and sparking renewed protests at the mine site.
The Vale plant has a production target of 60,000 tonnes of nickel at full capacity, compared with global supply of around 2 million tonnes. But it has been beset by problems in recent years, including several chemical spills and violent protests.
Tensions between the local population and Vale escalated over the weekend with young protesters frustrated at the latest spill by the Brazilian-based giant and a lack of response from indigenous Kanak chiefs, according to local media. Television footage showed images of burnt mining vehicles and equipment.
"There was damage at the site, but no damage to the plant. We had burned vehicles, one administration building was damaged, but no damage to the plant itself," Vale spokesman Cory McPhee told Reuters.
Peter Poppinga, an executive director at Vale, told Les Nouvelles Caledoniennes newspaper that damage to the mining site was estimated at least $20 million to $30 million, including the destruction of perhaps one third of the truck fleet.
"If there is no activity for several months, we will shut the plant, but that's not the case. The closing of the plant is not on the table," Poppinga was quoted as saying.
The scale of the damage could not immediately be independently verified.
Nickel mining is a key industry in New Caledonia, which holds as much as a quarter of the world's known reserves. Vale's plant is the second-largest employer in the southern province, with some 3,500 employees and contractors, including a large number of Filipino workers.
PLANT HALTED
New Caledonia's southern provincial government ordered an immediate halt to operations after the spill earlier this month and started legal proceedings under its environmental code.
The local government, which changed leadership last week, said it would not lift the production suspension until safety procedures were revised, an oversight committee was reinstated and an independent expert's report was completed.
"We got to this point because, clearly, part of the local youth, particularly from the southern tribes, reject the perspective of maintaining the plant in activity, even with the reinforcement of safety procedures," Philippe Michel, the newly elected president of New Caledonia's Southern Province, told local television on Monday.
Global nickel prices hit a 27-month high earlier this month and are up by about 40 percent this year, driven by a decision by Indonesia to halt exports of raw nickel ores and news of the Goro closure. Indonesia's ban left nickel buyers in China and Japan scrambling to secure supplies amid a fear of shortages.
"Vale's got lots of issues in the country," said Tom Price, a mining analyst at UBS in Sydney. "Nickel has recovered back to the marginal cost of production. It's inviting for them to continue to invest, but it's been a world of pain for them for quite a few years."
Given market expectations of Goro production of just 15,000-20,000 tonnes this year, any impact on nickel prices from the closure would be sentiment driven, Price added. LME nickel prices rose 0.7 percent to $19,745 a tonne on Tuesday.
The Goro mine produced 4,100 tonnes of nickel in the first quarter, up 41 percent on a year ago. Vale is the world's second-biggest nickel producer, but Goro made up just 6 percent of its nickel output in the first quarter.
The mine employs high pressure technology and acids to leach nickel from abundant tropical laterite ores.
"There is an inherent risk in Goro's type of operation," said Gavin Mudd, a professor of environmental engineering at Monash University in Melbourne.

Monday, May 26, 2014

Buy Aluminium May expiry or accumulate Aluminium mini in June in MCX

Buy Aluminium May expiry or accumulate Aluminium mini in June in MCXAs of Friday 23rd May 2014, 3 month forward LME Aluminum is seen trading at $1818/MT up by 2.70% from its previous close. We had suggested a bullish outlook on the metal in the last week and believe the same scenario may maintain in the next week too. 

There are several reasons for the metal to trade higher and a few prominent factors are as follows: 

A) Global Aluminum stocks which were at record high at 5.492 million tons in the beginning of 2014 has been continuously declining and in May as of now the total stocks stood at 5.233million tons a fall over 5% supporting the prices to rebound from record low since 2013. 

B) Producers are cutting smelting operations after prices declined amid rising costs. Aluminum on the LME fell 13 percent last year and in February touched the lowest since 2009. Oslo-based Norsk Hydro ASA this month said it would permanently close its Kurri Kurri plant in Australia. Earlier this year, Alcoa said it planned to shut a facility in Point Henry, Australia and curb capacity at two smelters in Brazil where producers are reducing output to the lowest in 12 years. 

C) Aluminum premiums are rising in Europe and Japan to a record levels in the recent time also helping the metal to move higher. We believe similar trend may continue in the short term by which prices may remain elevated. European spot aluminium premium rose to a record $390-405/MT, from $370-380/MT a week earlier. Spot ingot premiums in main Japanese port rose to an all-time high of $380-385/MT, up from $365-370/MT previous week. 

D) Aluminum buyers in Japan, Asia’s largest importer, are set to agree on a record fee next quarter as demand rode out a sales-tax gain amid falling global output.

 E) Fees in the U.S. and Europe climbing to a record high as financing transactions and waits to get metal from some LME-tracked warehouses keeping supplies unavailable to users. 

Strategy: Buy Aluminium May expiry or accumulate Aluminium mini in June at Rs. 103 and Rs. 104 respectively for a target of Rs. 107 and Rs. 109 while stop loss should be below Rs. 100 and Rs. 101.

Weekly Economic Data for the week 24-May-14 to 30-May-14

Expected impact on price: This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual: Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 24-May-14 to 30-May-14
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
26-May-2014 05-20 AM Japan Bank of Japan Releases April 30 Meeting Minutes         Neutral
26-May-2014 12-30 PM Japan BOJ Deputy Governor Iwata Speech         Neutral
26-May-2014 05-00 PM European Monetary Union Merkel Holds News Conference in Berlin After EU Election         Neutral
 
27-31 May-2014 -- Germany Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% -0.7% 0.90% 1.29 Neutral
27-May-2014 06-00 PM United States US-Durable Goods Orders 0.7% 2.60% -1.90% 6.72 Neutral
27-May-2014 07-30 PM United States Consumer Confidence 83 82.3 0.70 4.00 Neutral
 
28-May-2014 00-30 AM United Kingdom BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks in London         Neutral
28-May-2014 01-30 PM European Monetary Union M3 3-month average 1.2% 1.2% 0.00 Neutral
28-May-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union EC - Consumer Confidence -7.1 -7.1 0.00 1.04 Neutral
 
29-May-2014 06-00 PM United States GDP Annualized QoQ 0.5% 0.1% 0.40% 0.45 Neutral
29-May-2014 08-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change -- 106 -106.00 33.60 Neutral
29-May-2014 08-30 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change -- -7.2 7.20 3.45 Neutral
 
30-May-20134 05-30 PM India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) 4.7% 4.7% 0.00% 0.45 Neutral
30-May-2014 05-30 PM Germany Merkel Takes Part in Panel at German Catholic Conference         Neutral
30-May-2014 07-25 PM United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 82.5 81.8 0.70 2.48 Neutral