Tuesday, September 10, 2013

India's gold imports crashed 95% in August to just 2.5 tonne from month before, easing pressure on policymakers as they struggle to contain the depreciation of the rupee while addressing an elevated current account deficit (CAD).

India's gold imports crashed 95% in August to just 2.5 tonne from month before, easing pressure on policymakers as they struggle to contain the depreciation of the rupee while addressing an elevated current account deficit (CAD).
India's gold imports crashed 95% in August to just 2.5 tonne from month before, easing pressure on policymakers as they struggle to contain the depreciation of the rupee while addressing an elevated current account deficit (CAD).
Bullion industry executives said gold purchases from abroad tumbled last month as lack of clarity on recent central bank guidelines on imports, coupled with an absence of festivals, curbed demand from jewellers in the world’s top consumer.
The imports last month slumped from 47.5 tonne in July, 31.5 tonne in June, 162 tonne in May and 142.50 tonne in April, according to official data.
The government aims to reduce the CAD from $88 billion, or 4.8% of the gross domestic product (GDP), last fiscal to $70 billion, or 3.7% of the GDP, in 2013-14, and is desperately attempting to curb non-essential imports, including those of gold, to achieve the target.
Compounding the government’s worry, the rupee has depreciated by more than 20% so far this fiscal.
Gold imports stopped after July 22 due to confusion over a rule issued by the Reserve Bank of India, which required importers to re-export at least 20% of all the purchases from overseas, and jewellers started using stocks that had piled up in April and May following record imports of 304.5 tonne.
Although the RBI rule was aimed at curbing the flow of gold into the country and not to stop it, the importing agencies took time to get a grasp on the many operational procedures involved, including the undertaking that needs to be submitted to the customs department once the goods are delivered to an exporter for the next lot of imports.
On August 14, the central bank clarified on the operational part of its gold import norms issued in July following which traders started firming up deals.
Last week, the customs authority also explained the changes in sync with the RBI notification.
Imports may again rise to around 30 tonne in September, as jewellers usually start building inventory to cater to the requirement during the festival and marriage season from October, said a senior executive with the Bombay Bullion association.
Although imports may rise, the pace of growth will remain subdued compared with a year earlier due to the government crackdown on overseas purchases, said Sanjeev Agrawal, chief executive, Gitanjali Export Corporation.

Weekly Economic Data for the week 07-Sep-13 to 13-Sep-13

Exp.:Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior:Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today:Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year:Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price:This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very GoodGoodNeutralBadVery Bad
Actual:Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 07-Sep-13 to 13-Sep-13
DateTime (IST)CountryDataExp.PriorExp. chg todayAvg. chg of last 1 yearExp. Impact on Price
08-Sep-201307-30 AMChinaTrade Balance20.000B17.818B2.1813.34Neutral
08-Sep-201307-30 AMChinaExports (YoY)6.0%5.1%0.90%5.65Neutral
08-Sep-201307-30 AMChinaImports (YoY)11.3%10.9%0.40%6.92Neutral
 
09-Sep-201307-00 AMChinaConsumer Price Index (YoY)2.6%2.7%-0.10%0.43Neutral
09-Sep-201307-00 AMChinaProducer Price Index (YoY)-1.7%-2.3%0.60%0.61Good
09-Sep-201307-00 AMChinaM2 Money Supply (YoY)14.6%14.5%0.10%0.59Neutral
 
10-16-Sep-2013-IndiaImports YoY -6.20%  
10-16-Sep-2013-IndiaExports YoY 11.6%  
10-Sep-201311-00 AMChinaIndustrial Production (YoY)9.9%9.7%0.20%0.67Neutral
10-Sep-201311-00 AMChinaRetail Sales (YoY)13.3%13.2%0.10%0.78Neutral
 
11-Sep-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Crude Oil Stocks change -1.836M 3.45 
 
09-Sep-2013-European Monetary UnionDraghi Speaks in latvia     
12-Sep-201305-30 PMIndiaManufacturing Output-1.0%-2.20%1.20%5.33Neutral
12-Sep-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Natural Gas Storage change 58B 33.60 
 
13-14-Sep-2013-European Monetary UnionEuro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Vilnius. Lithuania     
13-Sep-201306-00 PMUnited StatesProducer Price Index (MoM)0.2%0.0%0.20%0.65Neutral
13-Sep-201306-00 PMUnited StatesRetail Sales (MoM)0.4%0.2%0.20%0.63Neutral
13-Sep-201307-25 PMUnited StatesReuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index8282.1-0.103.26Neutral

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Weekly Economic Data for the week 31-Aug-13 to 06-Sep-13

Exp.: Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior: Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today: Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year: Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price: This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual: Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 31-Aug-13 to 06-Sep-13

Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
01-Sep-2013 06-30 AM China NBS Manufacturing PMI 50.6 50.3 0.30 0.77 Neutral
 
02-Sep-2013 07-15 AM China HSBC Manufacturing PMI 50.2 47.7 2.50 0.89  
02-Sep-2013 01-18 PM France Markit Manufacturing PMI 49.7 49.7 0.00 1.53 Neutral
02-Sep-2013 01-23 PM Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI 52 52 0.00 1.37 Neutral
 
03-Sep-2013 07-30 PM United States ISM Manufacturing PMI 54 55.4 -1.40 1.35 Neutral
 
04-Sep-2013 01-18 PM France Markit Services PMI 47.7 47.7 0.00 1.90 Neutral
04-Sep-2013 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) -0.7% -0.7% 0.00% 0.45 Neutral
04-Sep-2013 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 0.3% 0.3% 0.00% 0.20 Neutral
04-Sep-2013 06-00 PM United States Trade Balance $-38.80B $-34.20B -4.60$ 3.21 Neutral
04-Sep-2013 11-30 PM United States Fed's Beige Book          
 
05-Sep-2013 03-30 PM Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) -1.0% 3.8% -4.80% 3.85 Bad
05-Sep-2013 04-30 PM United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5% 0.00% 0.00 Neutral
05-Sep-2013 05-15 PM European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5% 0.00% 0.07 Neutral
05-Sep-2013 06-00 PM European Monetary Union ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference          
05-Sep-2013 08-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change   67   33.60  
05-Sep-2013 08-30 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change   2.986M   3.45  
 
06-07Aug-2013 - European Monetary Union Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Lithuania          
06-Sep-2013 02-00 PM United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) 0.20% 1.1% -0.90% 1.04 Neutral
06-Sep-2013 03-30 PM Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) -0.5% 2.4% -2.90% 2.36 Very Bad
06-Sep-2013 06-00 PM United States Nonfarm Payrolls 182K 162K 20.00 43.00 Neutral
06-Sep-2013 06-00 PM United States Unemployment Rate 7.4% 7.4% 0.00% 0.13 Neutral

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Weekly Economic Data for the week 24-Aug-13 to 30-Aug-13

Exp.:Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior:Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today:Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year:Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price:This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very GoodGoodNeutralBadVery Bad
Actual:Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 24-Aug-13 to 30-Aug-13
DateTime (IST)CountryDataExp.PriorExp. chg todayAvg. chg of last 1 yearExp. Impact on Price
26-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesDurable Goods Orders-4.0%4.2%-8.20%6.72Neutral
 
27-Aug-201301-30 PMGermanyIFO - Current Assessment111.0110.10.901.35Neutral
27-Aug-201301-30 PMGermanyIFO - Business Climate107.0106.20.801.26Neutral
27-Aug-201301-30 PMGermanyIFO - Expectations103.1102.40.701.45Neutral
27-Aug-201307-30 PMUnited StatesConsumer Confidence7980.3-1.304.00Neutral
 
28-Aug-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Crude Oil Stocks change -1.428M 3.45 
 
29-Aug-201301-25 PMGermanyUnemployment Change-5K-7K2.00k10.36Neutral
29-Aug-201306-00 PMUnited StatesGross Domestic Product Annualized2.2%1.7%0.50%0.69Neutral
29-Aug-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Natural Gas Storage change 57B 24.64 
 
30-Aug-201311-30 AMUnited KingdomNationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)0.6%0.8%-0.20%0.87Neutral
30-Aug-201311-30 AMUnited KingdomNationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)3.3%3.9%-0.60%0.80Neutral
30-Aug-201304-00 PMIndiaFederal Fiscal Deficit, INR 2,628.23B 774.06 
30-Aug-201305-30 PMIndiaGross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY)4.6%4.8%-0.20%0.46Neutral
30-Aug-201307-25 PMUnited StatesReuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index80.5800.502.48N