The S&P 500 is in the 23rd quarter of its recovery - and shows a 196% gain.... the last four moves of similar magnitude ended very badly.
Friday, July 4, 2014
Australia losing 75,000 mining jobs in next two years
Between 50,000 and 75,000 mining jobs will be lost in Australia over the next couple of years as the industry's US$427 billion (A$450bn) investment on new capacity slows, research by the ANZ bank released on Wednesday shows.
According to the bank, the cuts will occur because the sector is switching from the job-heavy construction stage to the operational phase, which requires fewer workers.
Falling commodity prices, with both iron ore and coal tumbling this year, will also affect job creation and could see more positions go
Falling commodity prices, with both iron ore and coal tumbling this year, will also affect job creation and could see more positions go due to mining companies and suppliers efforts to cut operational costs.
Earlier this year Glencore (LON:GLEN) shut part of its Ravensworth coal mine because the operation was uneconomical. Brazil’s Vale (NYSE:VALE) followed closing its Integra Mine Complex for the same reasons. And they’re not alone, cut backs are going on throughout the whole sector.
This ANZ chart shows the strong relationship between resources investment and job creation. Taking into account resources extraction, which is increasingly becoming a volume game, resources investment, and commodity prices, the estimates are alarming.
By 2016 the bank expects resources investment (the blue line) to drop from about 7.5% of GDP to 4% — almost half in nearly three years. The yellow line, which shows employment related to resource investment, implies it will follow the blue line.
As a result, the bank's economists say there will be little improvement in the nation's 5.8% jobless rate.
ANZ senior economist corporate and commercial, Justin Fabo, was quoted by The Australian saying that weaker than expected commodity prices would likely increase the risks to more job losses as mining firms seek to cut costs.
"So we think the unemployment rate will be in spitting distance of six percent over the next 12 months, and for improvement after that to be gradual," he said.
The Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency estimates there are 263,000 jobs in the resources industry, which represented an 80% increase over five years.
Zinc output by the US were up 19% during Q1 2014: USGS
As per the data revealed by the US Geological Survey (USGS), the zinc mine production by the country during the first quarter of the year totaled 207,000 tons, 19% higher when compared with the output during Q1 2013. The smelter, refined production during the quarter totaled 53,900 metric tons.
For the month of March alone, the recoverable zinc production surged significantly higher by 26% to 70,600 metric tons. The production had totaled 56,000 metric tons during March last year. US Smelter, refined zinc production during the month of March alone totaled 18,000 metric tons, falling by nearly 5% when compared with the production of 18,900 metric tons during the same month a year ago.
The average daily recoverable zinc mine production soared 26% higher during Q1 this year when compared with the corresponding quarter the previous year.
Meanwhile, the consumption of refined zinc totaled 237,000 metric tons during the first quarter of the year. This includes 189,000 metric tons of imported zinc.
According to USGS data, the LME stocks of special high-grade zinc in the US totaled 729,275 metric tons, falling by nearly 17% from 874,350 metric tons in March 2013.
Thursday, July 3, 2014
METALS-LME copper hits highest in over 4 months on fund buying
London copper marked its highest in over four months and LME zinc touched a three-year peak on Thursday, with second-half fund allocations pouring into the sector as the demand outlook brightens.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange had edged up 0.1 percent to $7,131 a tonne by 0121 GMT, earlier hitting a fresh 4-1/2-year month peak of $7,145 and adding to a 1.4 percent advance from the previous session.
* The most-traded September copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed 1.8 percent to 51,110 yuan a tonne, having earlier hit a five-month high.
* ShFE zinc roared up 3 percent, tracking gains in London, after LME zinc hit its highest in nearly three years, propelled by expectations of a supply deficit and momentum based buying after clearing a key hurdle on charts.
* U.S. private-sector hiring hit a 1-1/2-year high in June, reinforcing views that momentum was building to carry the economy through the rest of the year after a dismal start.
* China's Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday downward pressure still existed in its economy despite it operating within a reasonable range and some leading indicators demonstrating a positive trend.
* Manufacturing activity in the United States and in Asia's industrial powerhouses China and Japan expanded further in June, but euro zone growth faltered as main motor Germany slowed.
MARKETS NEWS
* Asian stocks hovered at a three-year high and the dollar rose early on Thursday after robust jobs data fuelled hopes that the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report would point to momentum building in the economy.
DATA AHEAD (GMT)
0100 China Official non-manufacturing PMI June
0145 China HSBC services PMI June
Assets in top exchange-traded gold product up most since 2011
Assets in the world's biggest exchange-traded bullion product made their largest two-day gain since 2011 on Wednesday, with violence in Iraq and Ukraine buttressing demand.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust increased 1.4% to 796.39 tonnes in the two sessions through Tuesday, Bloomberg reported, adding that it is the biggest two-day gain since November 2011.
Demand for the precious metal is especially strong in Asia, the most active bullion-buying region, with China and India accounting for the majority of the demand.
According to The Wall Street Journal, demand rose to a record 1,100 tonnes in China last year and was estimated at 975 tons in India.
“Market fundamentals in Asia remains intact and is getting stronger,” the newspaper quoted Albert Cheng, managing director for the Far East at the World Gold Council, as saying.
Gold futures for August delivery traded Wednesday morning at $1,329.80 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from the previous close of $1,326.60.
Gold has benefited from not only geopolitical tensions but also the US central bank saying that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future, sparking worries about inflation.
During times of political or financial turmoil, market participants tend to buy gold, which is seen as a safe-haven investment.
What Aluminum Canceled Warrants Mean for Stock and Trade
What are the key trends within the aluminum industry right now, specifically relating to the LME aluminum price?
There are various interesting trends developing which, at first sight, appear contradictory. However, in reality, some common drivers exist. Obviously the LME price has risen from a rather range-bound $1,750-$1,800 level to nearly $1,900 over the last month or so. And despite what other analysts say about narrowing of forward spreads (in other words, less of a contango) we aren’t ready to say that the contango is gone, but it has become perhaps more volatile in recent days. The physical delivery premium has remained relatively steady at $385-460/ton – depending on whom you believe, and whether you work from the CME-priced premium or what buyers actually pay. We also see a massive shift in on-warrant stocks being liquidated (or at least put in the queue for liquidation). In fact, canceled metal in all LME locations now represents 67% of total stocks – that’s two-thirds heading for the door and one-third currently available for trade.
What do you think is causing spot prices to rise? Is there a metal shortage? Is demand up? Is the market being manipulated?
The standard producer response goes like this: “the market has finally reacted to all the smelter closures causing a tightening of supply.” That makes sense, so one might expect the physical delivery premium would continue to rise too, but alas, that hasn’t occurred. Yes, a metal shortage exists. It has since the beginning of the year. We would argue, though, that the shortage is reflected in physical premiums. A different set of dynamics has driven the rise in the LME. Perhaps the trade has begun using the LME more now? Queues primarily exist at two locations. It’s unlikely the mass warrant cancellations and the increase in aluminum prices are not somehow related.
Conditions favourable for monsoon to advance into M.P., U.P.
The low-pressure area over West Bengal has started interacting with the western disturbance to bring monsoon rains over the hills in North-West India and parts of adjoining plains.
The India Met Department said that rain has occurred at most places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in North-West India and Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim in East India.
But the northern limit of monsoon failed to make further progress after it broke the 15-day jinx to get a peep into parts of the North-West.
Conditions are favourable for its advance into some more parts of Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana (including Delhi), Punjab and some parts of north Rajasthan during the next two days.
Many places over Jammu and Kashmir, east Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Odisha, Konkan, Goa, and coastal Karnataka received heavy overnight rainfall on Wednesday.
But the rain was confined to few places over west Uttar Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep.
Isolated places over Haryana, Delhi, east Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, coastal Andhra Pradesh and north interior Karnataka witnessed passing showers.
Global models suggested that the ‘low’ over East India may continue to be active until the weekend before weakening over Odisha.
This is also the time around when the ground will have been prepared for the initiation of a cyclone/typhoon in the north-west Pacific, east of the Philippines. These models hinted that a preparatory low-pressure area may take shape by the weekend. It would go on to become a strong typhoon in the East China Sea. The system would concurrently become the prominent feature in the entire Asian monsoon system and would start pulling in flows from the Arabian Sea.
These flows would be dragged into place over the West Coast first, before residual flows are hauled over peninsula, south Bay of Bengal, and onward into South China Sea/north-west Pacific.
Heavy to very heavy rain is likely over the West Coast right from Konkan-Mumbai down to north Kerala during the next week, according to a US Climate Prediction Centre.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)