Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Protesters burn vehicles, buildings at New Caledonia nickel mine

 Protesters burn vehicles, buildings at New Caledonia nickel mineRioters torched vehicles, equipment and buildings at Vale's nickel mine in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia over the weekend, as anger boiled over about a chemical spill in a local river.
The $6 billion Vale plant at Goro in southern New Caledonia was closed earlier this month after some 100,000 liters of acid-tainted effluent leaked, killing about 1,000 fish and sparking renewed protests at the mine site.
The Vale plant has a production target of 60,000 tonnes of nickel at full capacity, compared with global supply of around 2 million tonnes. But it has been beset by problems in recent years, including several chemical spills and violent protests.
Tensions between the local population and Vale escalated over the weekend with young protesters frustrated at the latest spill by the Brazilian-based giant and a lack of response from indigenous Kanak chiefs, according to local media. Television footage showed images of burnt mining vehicles and equipment.
"There was damage at the site, but no damage to the plant. We had burned vehicles, one administration building was damaged, but no damage to the plant itself," Vale spokesman Cory McPhee told Reuters.
Peter Poppinga, an executive director at Vale, told Les Nouvelles Caledoniennes newspaper that damage to the mining site was estimated at least $20 million to $30 million, including the destruction of perhaps one third of the truck fleet.
"If there is no activity for several months, we will shut the plant, but that's not the case. The closing of the plant is not on the table," Poppinga was quoted as saying.
The scale of the damage could not immediately be independently verified.
Nickel mining is a key industry in New Caledonia, which holds as much as a quarter of the world's known reserves. Vale's plant is the second-largest employer in the southern province, with some 3,500 employees and contractors, including a large number of Filipino workers.
PLANT HALTED
New Caledonia's southern provincial government ordered an immediate halt to operations after the spill earlier this month and started legal proceedings under its environmental code.
The local government, which changed leadership last week, said it would not lift the production suspension until safety procedures were revised, an oversight committee was reinstated and an independent expert's report was completed.
"We got to this point because, clearly, part of the local youth, particularly from the southern tribes, reject the perspective of maintaining the plant in activity, even with the reinforcement of safety procedures," Philippe Michel, the newly elected president of New Caledonia's Southern Province, told local television on Monday.
Global nickel prices hit a 27-month high earlier this month and are up by about 40 percent this year, driven by a decision by Indonesia to halt exports of raw nickel ores and news of the Goro closure. Indonesia's ban left nickel buyers in China and Japan scrambling to secure supplies amid a fear of shortages.
"Vale's got lots of issues in the country," said Tom Price, a mining analyst at UBS in Sydney. "Nickel has recovered back to the marginal cost of production. It's inviting for them to continue to invest, but it's been a world of pain for them for quite a few years."
Given market expectations of Goro production of just 15,000-20,000 tonnes this year, any impact on nickel prices from the closure would be sentiment driven, Price added. LME nickel prices rose 0.7 percent to $19,745 a tonne on Tuesday.
The Goro mine produced 4,100 tonnes of nickel in the first quarter, up 41 percent on a year ago. Vale is the world's second-biggest nickel producer, but Goro made up just 6 percent of its nickel output in the first quarter.
The mine employs high pressure technology and acids to leach nickel from abundant tropical laterite ores.
"There is an inherent risk in Goro's type of operation," said Gavin Mudd, a professor of environmental engineering at Monash University in Melbourne.

Monday, May 26, 2014

Buy Aluminium May expiry or accumulate Aluminium mini in June in MCX

Buy Aluminium May expiry or accumulate Aluminium mini in June in MCXAs of Friday 23rd May 2014, 3 month forward LME Aluminum is seen trading at $1818/MT up by 2.70% from its previous close. We had suggested a bullish outlook on the metal in the last week and believe the same scenario may maintain in the next week too. 

There are several reasons for the metal to trade higher and a few prominent factors are as follows: 

A) Global Aluminum stocks which were at record high at 5.492 million tons in the beginning of 2014 has been continuously declining and in May as of now the total stocks stood at 5.233million tons a fall over 5% supporting the prices to rebound from record low since 2013. 

B) Producers are cutting smelting operations after prices declined amid rising costs. Aluminum on the LME fell 13 percent last year and in February touched the lowest since 2009. Oslo-based Norsk Hydro ASA this month said it would permanently close its Kurri Kurri plant in Australia. Earlier this year, Alcoa said it planned to shut a facility in Point Henry, Australia and curb capacity at two smelters in Brazil where producers are reducing output to the lowest in 12 years. 

C) Aluminum premiums are rising in Europe and Japan to a record levels in the recent time also helping the metal to move higher. We believe similar trend may continue in the short term by which prices may remain elevated. European spot aluminium premium rose to a record $390-405/MT, from $370-380/MT a week earlier. Spot ingot premiums in main Japanese port rose to an all-time high of $380-385/MT, up from $365-370/MT previous week. 

D) Aluminum buyers in Japan, Asia’s largest importer, are set to agree on a record fee next quarter as demand rode out a sales-tax gain amid falling global output.

 E) Fees in the U.S. and Europe climbing to a record high as financing transactions and waits to get metal from some LME-tracked warehouses keeping supplies unavailable to users. 

Strategy: Buy Aluminium May expiry or accumulate Aluminium mini in June at Rs. 103 and Rs. 104 respectively for a target of Rs. 107 and Rs. 109 while stop loss should be below Rs. 100 and Rs. 101.

Weekly Economic Data for the week 24-May-14 to 30-May-14

Expected impact on price: This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual: Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 24-May-14 to 30-May-14
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
26-May-2014 05-20 AM Japan Bank of Japan Releases April 30 Meeting Minutes         Neutral
26-May-2014 12-30 PM Japan BOJ Deputy Governor Iwata Speech         Neutral
26-May-2014 05-00 PM European Monetary Union Merkel Holds News Conference in Berlin After EU Election         Neutral
 
27-31 May-2014 -- Germany Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% -0.7% 0.90% 1.29 Neutral
27-May-2014 06-00 PM United States US-Durable Goods Orders 0.7% 2.60% -1.90% 6.72 Neutral
27-May-2014 07-30 PM United States Consumer Confidence 83 82.3 0.70 4.00 Neutral
 
28-May-2014 00-30 AM United Kingdom BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks in London         Neutral
28-May-2014 01-30 PM European Monetary Union M3 3-month average 1.2% 1.2% 0.00 Neutral
28-May-2014 02-30 PM European Monetary Union EC - Consumer Confidence -7.1 -7.1 0.00 1.04 Neutral
 
29-May-2014 06-00 PM United States GDP Annualized QoQ 0.5% 0.1% 0.40% 0.45 Neutral
29-May-2014 08-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change -- 106 -106.00 33.60 Neutral
29-May-2014 08-30 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change -- -7.2 7.20 3.45 Neutral
 
30-May-20134 05-30 PM India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) 4.7% 4.7% 0.00% 0.45 Neutral
30-May-2014 05-30 PM Germany Merkel Takes Part in Panel at German Catholic Conference         Neutral
30-May-2014 07-25 PM United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 82.5 81.8 0.70 2.48 Neutral

Shanghai Copper Rises to 11-Week High as Stockpiles Drop

Shanghai Copper Rises to 11-Week High as Stockpiles Drop
Copper in Shanghai climbed for a third day to a 11-week high as stockpiles tracked by exchanges in London, Shanghai and New York slumped. Aluminum rose to the highest in four weeks.
The contract for delivery in August on the Shanghai Futures Exchange added as much as 0.8 percent to 49,110 yuan ($7,875) a metric ton, the highest price since March 7, and was at 49,020 yuan by 9:54 a.m. local time. Futures advanced 1 percent last week, gaining for the second straight week.
Refined-copper inventories dropped to 283,645 tons last week, the lowest level since 2008, according to data from exchanges. SHFE-tracked reserves fell 4.5 percent to 92,652 tons, near the lowest since December 2011. Inventories available for removal from LME warehouses fell below 100,000 tons for the first time since 2008. Markets in the U.S. and U.K. are closed today for holidays.
“Copper was supported by strong spot premiums in Shanghai and London because of the falling inventories,” said Lian Zheng, an analyst at Xinhu Futures in Shanghai. “The momentum should continue unless China posts disappointing economic data again and concerns over China’s physical demand arise.”
Copper for immediate delivery on the LME settled at $93 a ton above the three-month contract on May 23, the widest since May 2012. Higher prices for earlier deliveries usually signal limited supplies. The metal for delivery in July on the Comex in New York rose 0.7 percent to $3.189 a pound.
In Shanghai, aluminum for delivery in August added 0.5 percent to 13,565 yuan a ton after touching 13,660 yuan, the highest since April 25. The global aluminum market will be in deficit this year by 1.3 million tons, leading producer United Co. Rusal said May 23.

Gold production in Australia, the world's second-biggest producer falls 7%

Gold production in Australia, the world's second-biggest producer after China, declined 7% due to bad weather in Q1 2014.
According to industry consultant Surbiton Associates output declined to 68 metric tonnes in the three months through March compared to Q4 last year, but is up 8% year on year.
Heavy rain in the Goldfields region of Western Australia in mid-February is to blame for the drop according to the Melbourne-based firm.
Full mining at top producer in the region Regis Resources' Garden Well mine may only resume in June after it was submerged.
The price of gold is up nearly 8% this year, but down sharply from 2014 highs struck in March to trade below $1,300 an ounce.
Gold production in Australia, the world's second-biggest producer falls 7%
Source: USGS via Wikipedia

Goldman, JPMorgan Sued over Zinc Prices

Goldman, JPMorgan Sued over Zinc Prices
A lawsuit filed on Friday alleges that Goldman Sachs Group Inc , JPMorgan Chase & Co , the London Metal Exchange and metal warehouse operators have conspired since 2010 to manipulate the price of zinc in the United States.
The lawsuit, filed in the Southern District of New York, also names as defendants the mining and commodities trading group Glencore Xstrata and its Pacorini Metals USA LLC unit. Metro International Trade Services, the metal warehousing of Goldman Sachs, is also named a defendant.
The lawsuit, which seeks class action status, echoes the allegations made in previously filed lawsuits over alleged manipulation of the aluminum market in the United States.
It claims the defendants used a variety of means to restrain trade in zinc, including by manipulating LME rules to ensure long queues for metals and shuttling zinc between warehouses for no reason other than to "cause and exacerbate anticompetitive effects."
Like aluminum, physical prices of zinc have soared in recent years due to the queues, causing extra costs to users, such as galvanizers.
London Metal Exchange warehouses in New Orleans hold 80 percent of the zinc in the exchange-registered stockpile. Pacorini operates most of the sheds in that port city.
JPMorgan and Glencore declined to comment on the lawsuit. A spokesman for Goldman Sachs said it intended to "vigorously contest the suit."
LME did not respond to a request for comment.
The lawsuit was filed by Duncan Galvanizing Corp of Everett, Massachusetts.
Duncan Galvanizing did not return a call and an email asking for comment.
The case is Duncan Galvanizing Corp v. The London Metal Exchange, et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 14-03728.

Global Lead mine supply grew 5% over the previous year in Q1 '14: ILZSG

Global Lead mine supply grew 5% over the previous year in Q1 '14: ILZSGThe International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) has released the preliminary data for world lead supply and demand during the first quarter of 2014. The provisional data indicates that the lead mine supply has grown by almost 5% year-on-year during the initial three month period of the year.
According to ILZSG, the world demand for refined lead metal exceeded supply by 10kt during the first quarter of the year. The total reported stock levels declined by 18 kt during the same period.
The higher mine output from Australia, Mexico, Peru and the US contributed to the 5% year-on-year growth in global lead mine supply. On the other hand, the mine supply from Canada and Turkey declined during the quarter.
The global refined lead metal production declined by 1.7% during Q1 this year. This was primarily on account of lowered production from China and the US.
The global demand for refined lead metal declined by 2% during the quarter. The apparent usage of refined metal by China and the US fell by 2.5% and 6.7% respectively. However, the apparent usage in Europe and Japan rose by 1.4% and 1% respectively.
ILZSG statistics indicate that the lead mine supply during the first quarter of 2014 totalled 1,161,000 tonnes as against 1,106,000 tonnes in Q1 2013. The global refined lead metal production during Q1 ’14 totalled 2,621,000 tonnes as against 2,665,000 tonnes in Q1 2013. The apparent lead usage totalled 2,631,000 tonnes during Q1 ‘14, down from 2,686,000 tonnes in the corresponding quarter in 2013.