Friday, June 27, 2014

Stocks Slump As Fed's Bullard Warns The Market Is Wrong

 "Markets don't appreciate how close the Fed is to its goals," and thus tightening is the warning from the usually quite dovish Jim Bullard.
  • BULLARD SAYS MARKETS DON'T APPRECIATE HOW CLOSE FED IS TO GOALS
  • BULLARD SAYS HE'S TRYING TO PUT EMPHASIS ON CLOSENESS TO GOALS
  • BULLARD: MARKETS SHOULD BE PRICING IN RATE INCREASES BASED ON WHAT THE FED SAYS
  •  BULLARD: ECONOMY SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE IT IF WE BEGIN TO PULL BACK FROM WHERE MONETARY POLICY IS NOW
Remember, don't fight the fed - unless they say sell?

Stocks Slump As Fed's Bullard Warns The Market Is Wrong

And it seems the market that is 'wrong' is stocks; as bond yields continue to tumble to 4-week lows. Consider for a moment the many reasons why bonds would be here and now thanks to Bullard, they are front-running the equity sell-off (knowing that once stocks dump, it will all go into duration).

Industrial metals to benefit from China's positive outlook

Industrial metals to benefit from China's positive outlook
Restocking and improved demand for industrial base metals is likely, said TD Securities.
“With China growing at 7.5%, the U.S. showing more and more positive data points and Europe benefitting from more ECB (European Central Bank) monetary accommodation, industrial metals demand should tighten their supply/fundamentals across the base metals complex into 2014,” said TDS says.
Chinese inventories of products containing metals have been declining, and they may need to be replenished should industrial uptake speed up. “It is quite likely that manufacturers are light on inventories owing to recent uncertainty related to Chinese growth,” TDS added.
“We are also hearing the same thing from Western world manufacturers. Metals with supply constraints, like zinc, are likely to perform best. While the scandal surrounding copper in China may have some negative impact, it is small relative to the market and should not skew the positive impact of global supply/demand physical fundamentals and cost structures,” TDS added.

Copper price: Emptying warehouses spark red hot streak

In New York trade on Monday September copper extending a rally to reach a high of $3.1765, sparked by a continuing drawdown of inventories around the world.
It's the tenth straight day of gains for the red metal after coming dangerously close to breaching the $3.00 a pound level at the start of June for the second time this year.
The rally is the longest winning streak for the metal since 2005. LME copper also showed some strength climbing to $6,955 a tonne.
Gains for copper come on the back renewed optimism about more robust global economic growth after strong manufacturing numbers out of China and expectations of an acceleration in the US economic recovery.
The copper price is highly correlated with economic growth thanks to the widespread use of the metal in the construction, transport and power industries.
Inventories at warehouses managed by the LME and those in New York and Shanghai, fell to a six-year low on Thursday – 50% in 2014.
The global refined copper market swung to a surprise shortage in March and a 205,000 tonnes deficit for the first three months of the year, compared with a 206,000 tonnes surplus in the same period in 2013, preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group showed on Monday.
The Qingdao issue is raising concern over the status of supplies
Defying market expectations, the copper price has dug itself out of a near four-year low struck mid-March of $2.92 a pound.
The metal remains 5.7% down in 2014 as the market adjusts to slower growth in China which consumes more than 40% of the world's copper demand of some 21 million tonnes.
A complicating factor in predicting the copper market this year is Beijing's crackdown on the use of commodities as collateral for letters of credit.
On Thursday it was revealed authorities uncovered massive fraud in the China's gold-backed loan industry, which comes on the heels of a probe into allegations that several companies pledged the same copper, iron ore and other industrial metals held at the port of Qingdao as collateral for loans to different banks.
Fears that these stocks will be dumped onto the market as these deals unwind forcing prices down and creating a vicious circle have spooked the industry, especially iron ore.Copper price: Emptying warehouses spark red hot streakIn sharp contrast to copper Chinese iron ore inventories remain close to record highs of 115 million tonnes and the price of the commodity is already down some 30% this year.
Another theory doing the rounds is that, at least for copper, the shadow banking crackdown could actually turn out to be a boost:
"The Qingdao issue is raising concern over the status of supplies, with physical copper in Shanghai now commanding a premium over front-month futures, having been trading at a discount earlier this month.
"Another potential impact from Qingdao is that Chinese imports of metals will decline in coming months, as traders find themselves shut off from letters of credit."
Chinese copper imports tumbled 16% in May compared to the previous month, but year to date China is still importing refined copper at a record setting pace – up a whopping 34% over 2013 to 2.1 million tonnes.
Other base metals have also enjoyed a good run.
Zinc is trading near a 16-month high
Zinc was trading near a 16-month high at $2,190 a tonne, as LME stock of the metal sink to lows last seen in 2010. The base metal is up more than 6% during the current quarter.

Lead has advanced 5% this year and is now back to highs last seen in February this year above $2,150 a tonne.
The imminent closure of several lead-zinc mines including the Century mine in Australia have raised fears of a supply shortage.
Nickel continues to be the strongest performer gaining 13% just over the last three months in response to Indonesia’s export ban on unrefined mineral ores. Nickel prices scaled $21,000 a tonne in May, but has since settled back to the mid-$1,800s.
The Ukrainian crisis also underpinned the price of the steelmaking raw material over fears of increased sanctions against Russia – Norilsk accounts for approximately 17% of global nickel output.
Tin is the laggard of the sector trading close to its opening levels of 2014 at $22,425 per tonne.
Tin has followed the opposite path to copper. Expectations was for a rise in the price on predictions of a market deficit, but warehoused stock has been on a rising trend reaching 11,185 tonnes on Thursday, up nearly 40% over the past four months.

After 125 years, Alcoa looks beyond aluminum

After 125 years, Alcoa looks beyond aluminumAlcoa Inc, the company that helped create the aluminum industry more than a century ago, is reinventing itself as a manufacturer of specialized components for aerospace and automotive customers, including some that contain no aluminum at all.
The company's deal for jet engine part maker Firth Rixson, which uses little aluminum, is its biggest move yet to escape the terrible primary aluminum market by crafting the parts its customers need, even if they are made of nickel or titanium.
It announced the proposed $2.85 billion deal to buy Firth Rixson earlier on Thursday.
Alcoa talks constantly about expanding its downstream businesses, which sell truck wheels, aircraft parts and other goods. Now it is rebranding itself in ways that would have seemed unthinkable just a few years ago.
"We are really material-agnostic," Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said in an interview on Thursday. "We love, internally, that we have fights over what is the right material, in front of our customers, together with our customers."
From an upstart, this would be one thing. But Alcoa has been synonymous with aluminum since 1888, and it has a role in every part of the sector: mining bauxite, refining it into alumina and smelting alumina to create aluminum.
And yet in retrospect, Thursday's deal is not the first sign of a shift into other metals. Aerospace, which accounted for 17 percent of revenue last year, is already dominated by nickel-based alloys and titanium, as well as aluminum-lithium alloys.
In January, Alcoa quietly revised the company description that appears in its news releases. Instead of "the world's leading producer of primary and fabricated aluminum," it now introduces itself as "a global leader in lightweight metals engineering and manufacturing."
Last week it said it would invest $25 million in Hampton, Virginia, to produce largely nickel-based alloy jet engine blades. In May, it broke ground on a $100 million facility in Indiana to make nickel-based alloy engine parts.
Investors are not complaining. Alcoa's stock has been climbing more or less steadily since late last year, and is up more than 80 percent from a year ago.
"I think it's a good thing," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group, referring to the Firth Rixson deal. "It makes aerospace a bigger part of Alcoa, and to us it's a business with a wide moat."
Ghriskey also said the deal would diversify Alcoa, and that was likely boosting the stock. Shares closed up 2.7 percent at $14.94 on Thursday.
DIVERSIFY, DIVERSIFY, DIVERSIFY
Aerospace has long been a key market for aluminum producers, but Alcoa and its rivals are also expanding in the U.S. automotive industry, once virtually owned by the steelmakers.
That battle came up often at last week's Steel Success conference in New York. At one point an audience member asked Lakshmi Mittal, chief executive of top steelmaker ArcelorMittal SA, why he would not just buy an aluminum producer. The audience laughed.
"You can also tell aluminum companies that steel is a better solution. They should buy steel companies," Mittal said, to applause. The next questioner changed the subject.
But in the face of low prices and excess capacity, steelmakers should also consider diversifying into other materials, said John Lichtenstein, Accenture's global managing director for metals.
"There's sort of the mindset of, zero sum, winner take all, in the automotive war in particular," he said. But automakers have told him they want suppliers to look at the entire vehicle, to help work out the best mix of materials and solve technical problems like how best to join them together.
SPIN OFF?
The Firth Rixson deal is sure to revive the debate over whether Alcoa should remain vertically integrated, or break itself up as rival Alcan did in 2005, when it spun out Novelis, which makes aluminum sheet for beverage cans and cars.
Asked about a spin-off, CEO Kleinfeld said Alcoa is well-positioned right now, and pointed to the higher-cost smelters it has shut down in the last few years, as well as its joint venture in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to boast low operating costs once it has ramped up.
"We've come down substantially on the cost curve. We will continue to come down," he said. But he added the company is always looking at its portfolio.

In general, Lichtenstein said, vertical integration can benefit aluminum companies that have access to high quality bauxite, which is in tighter supply, than, for example, iron ore, used to make steel. 

Zinc Breaks Through: Demand, Scarcity Create Bull Market

Zinc has surged 12% in the past 2 months. The metal might reach a 3-year high soon, and that could finally allow Zinc prices to increase to new levels. As we commented 2 weeks ago, the metal was showing a bullish technical pattern and we would expect it to keep going up.
3M LME Zinc price since 2013
3M LME Zinc price since 2013
The fundamental picture supports a bullish attitude. Demand is expected to keep growing for the coming years, while the looming closure of major mines such as Century in Australia and Lisheen in Ireland next year due to mineral depletion, has most analysts predicting the deficit of this year only getting worse in the years to come. In the meantime, mining companies have been slow to open new zinc mines and LME stocks fell last week to a three-year low.
Commodities and, in particular, base metals have been in a falling market since the spring of 2011 and that’s also a reason why zinc hasn’t been able to turn its price around ever since. However, commodities made a key upward move this year and some industrial metals have already started to show some life. A further recovery in commodities and the metals sector will definitely help zinc on its way up.
3M LME Zinc Price on the LME
3M LME Zinc Price since 2011
We have seen many times that prices can move in the opposite direction of what the fundamental picture is saying. This is because many of these fundamentals are already discounted in the price and that is why, despite of having a fundamental opinion of the future, you should always wait for price actions before making purchasing decisions.
What This Means For Metal Buyers
Zinc is at its highest level since February 2013 and chances are that it breaks to a new three-year high. The fundamental and technical pictures are pointing to higher prices. If zinc manages to push onto new ground, we recommend buyers take their risk off the table and start taking long-term positions as prices will likely trend upward.

Zinc Approaches 16-Month High in London as Supples Fall

Zinc Approaches 16-Month High in London as Supples Fall
Zinc rose, trading near a 16-month high, as inventories in warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange declined amid signs of improving demand.
Stockpiles fell for a fourth session, extending a slide to the lowest since December 2010. Zinc, used in everything from brass plumbing fixtures to steel car parts, has gained 10 percent this quarter amid signs of recoveries in manufacturing and housing. U.S. new-home sales posted the biggest one-month gain since 1992 in May, while American factories received more orders for business equipment, government data showed this week.
“There’s some demand influences and some supply influences” pushing zinc prices higher, Michael Turek, a senior director at Newedge USA LLC in New York, said in a telephone interview. “There’s genuine demand for it. The industrial performance in the U.S. is quite robust.”
Zinc for delivery in three months climbed 0.4 percent to settle at $2,190.50 a metric ton by 5:50 p.m. on the LME, after reaching $2,195.50. On June 23, prices climbed to $2,198, the highest since Feb. 15, 2013.
Copper for delivery in three months rose 0.6 percent to $6,955 a ton ($3.15 a pound) on the LME. On the Comex in New York, copper futures for delivery in September gained 0.2 percent to $3.172 a pound. Prices advanced for a 10th session, the longest rally since June 2005.
Inventories monitored by the LME have fallen 57 percent this year to the lowest since August 2008.
Nickel and lead climbed in London. Aluminum and tin fell.

Thursday, June 26, 2014

CHARTS: Gold price entering make or break territory

The gold price jumped around on Wednesday only to settle in familiar territory.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery in late afternoon trade exchanged hands for $1,319.50 an ounce, down $1.80 from its settlement level in middling volumes.
Earlier in the day gold touched a low of $1,305.40, only recovering after a drop in the dollar following a surprisingly large down adjustment in the first quarter US GDP.
Last Thursday's nearly $50 an ounce surge in frenzied trading now appears to have been a blip as gold's momentum turns sideways.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Denmark's Saxo Bank, says for gold to continue to show strength the metal must first clear $1,331:
If successful it should be able to make further progress towards trend-line resistance at 1371 USD/oz ahead of the 2014 peak at 1392 USD/oz. However, a move back below 1300 USD/oz would remove the current momentum and most likely result in a renewed period of range-bound trading around 1295 USD/oz. which has been the average price for the past year.
CHARTS: Gold price is entering make or break territory
Technical research and investment blog InvesTRAC's chart of the gold price versus the blue-chip Dow Jones Index, which on Wednesday was again toying with record territory despite the GDP numbers, indicates that gold is set to outperform stocks:
The long term downtrend from the top at 1.746 is still intact…the recent weakness held above the 0.725 low and the ratio has now pushed up through the first downtrend which opens the way for an 11 percent rally to the next visible resistance at 0.860. If the ratio can get through this barrier it would suggest that after an almost 60 percent decline it would have the potential to go substantially higher:
CHARTS: Gold price is entering make or break territory
FLASHBACK:
Towards the end of May, InvesTRAC produced a chart showing that the uncharacteristically quiet gold market was primed for break-out price move. That bust out if its trading range started out as a big gap down with the gold price hitting $1,244 at the start of June. That was before Yellen and ISIS changed the picture again and a 90 tonne 15-minute trade lit a fire under the metal.
CHARTS: Gold price is entering make or break territory