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Thursday, June 26, 2014
CHARTS: Gold price entering make or break territory
The gold price jumped around on Wednesday only to settle in familiar territory.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery in late afternoon trade exchanged hands for $1,319.50 an ounce, down $1.80 from its settlement level in middling volumes.
Earlier in the day gold touched a low of $1,305.40, only recovering after a drop in the dollar following a surprisingly large down adjustment in the first quarter US GDP.
Last Thursday's nearly $50 an ounce surge in frenzied trading now appears to have been a blip as gold's momentum turns sideways.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Denmark's Saxo Bank, says for gold to continue to show strength the metal must first clear $1,331:
If successful it should be able to make further progress towards trend-line resistance at 1371 USD/oz ahead of the 2014 peak at 1392 USD/oz. However, a move back below 1300 USD/oz would remove the current momentum and most likely result in a renewed period of range-bound trading around 1295 USD/oz. which has been the average price for the past year.
Technical research and investment blog InvesTRAC's chart of the gold price versus the blue-chip Dow Jones Index, which on Wednesday was again toying with record territory despite the GDP numbers, indicates that gold is set to outperform stocks:
The long term downtrend from the top at 1.746 is still intact…the recent weakness held above the 0.725 low and the ratio has now pushed up through the first downtrend which opens the way for an 11 percent rally to the next visible resistance at 0.860. If the ratio can get through this barrier it would suggest that after an almost 60 percent decline it would have the potential to go substantially higher:
Towards the end of May, InvesTRAC produced a chart showing that the uncharacteristically quiet gold market was primed for break-out price move. That bust out if its trading range started out as a big gap down with the gold price hitting $1,244 at the start of June. That was before Yellen and ISIS changed the picture again and a 90 tonne 15-minute trade lit a fire under the metal.