Sunday, July 6, 2014

McClellan Sounds "Alarm" Over Stock Market Drawdowns


Alarming Sign in NDX Stocks’ Drawdown

Chart In Focus
July 03, 2014
The Nasdaq 100 Index is making new multi-year highs, levels not seen since the weeks just after the 2000 Internet Bubble top.  But it is interesting for us to see that the average component stock in that index is down 7% from its trailing 52-week high. 
And that 7% drawdown number is actually smaller than it has been recently, but it is still not back to the low drawdown reading of 6.0% that we saw in early March, before the Nasdaq 100 stocks got into a patch of trouble.  And the fascinating point is that divergences like this tend to be really important for the long-run picture for stock prices.
This current divergence is not guaranteed to stay with us.  It looks like a genuine divergence now, but it is still possible that we could see a continued rally that takes the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 collectively up closer to the level of their 52-week closing highs, thereby closing the gap on this measure of average drawdown.  But for now, the message is that the average stock making up the Nasdaq 100 Index is not confirming the bullish message of the NDX’s higher price highs. 
A similar message comes from a similar indicator, this time examining the 30 stocks which make up the DJIA. 
DJI Oscillator Positive Index
This one looks at the 30 stocks that make up the DJIA, and checks each one to see if its Price Oscillator is above or below zero.  What we are seeing lately is a declining number of Dow components participating in the uptrend that way, and a drop of this indicator below its 15-day moving average.  This condition also comes as a divergence appears between prices and the indicator.
As with the NDX stocks’ indicator above, the divergence does not absolutely have to persist; the market could just power through it, but that is not usually the way things usually work out.
Via Tom McClellan via NTMarkets

Saturday, July 5, 2014

US Sales To Russia Hit Record High After Sanctions

While it is all too easy to show the massive outperformance of Russian stocks (even after Carney's "sell" recommendation) as evidence that US sanctions were not 'punishing' as the mainstream media might suggest; this week's release of trade data shows the utter farce that the so-called "costs" imposed on Putin actually are. As WSJ reports, despite all the scaremongery and sanctioning, US exports to Russia in May hit $1.2 billion - a record high (up 21% from pre-sanctions). That will certainly teach them!!

US Sales To Russia Hit Record High After Sanctions

U.S. efforts to penalize Russia for its actions in Ukraine appear to have done little to stem exports of U.S. goods to the country.

The U.S. announced targeted sanctions against several Russian companies and individuals in March, but U.S. trade data published Thursday shows exports to the country were the highest on record at $1.2 billion in May.

The sanctions, organized with Europe and other major industrialized nations over Moscow’s alleged actions to destabilize its former client state, sparked investor flight out of Russia, led the ruble to tumble and pushed the economy into a recession. Russian markets have since recovered somewhat, but investors have been wary of an escalation in the sanctions battle.

Demand for U.S. products apparently hasn’t been hit, however, and in fact jumped 21% from the previous month.
So much for those sanctions - need moar targeted sectoral ones to really teach them a lesson (oh wait - what about the boomerang?)

Nifty's Movement On Union Budget Day In Past 1999-2014

Nifty's Movement On Union Budget Day In Past 1999-2014

Union Budget is just 4 trading days away, 
Below I have discussed Nifty range from 1999-2014(Previous Govt). 

Maximum Range on Budget day is 346 in 2009. 
Trade Cautiously. 

Friday, July 4, 2014

Copper Weekly Charts Shows It's Moving Towards $ 350-352

Copper Weekly Charts Shows It's Moving Towards $ 350-352

Why Google’s Skybox buy is worrying commodity investors

Why Google’s Skybox buy is worrying commodity investors
The data that it provides can result in unfair advantage to those with deeper pockets

In buying the US firm cheap, Google has earned the wrath of commodity investors, particularly those who do not have deeper pockets.
The reason: they fear that Skybox’s satellite technology could result in the manipulation of the commodities market.

What’s so special?


What’s special about Skybox’s satellite technology? It plans to put a constellation of 15 satellites about 300 km above earth in two years’ time to take pictures of any part of the globe twice a day. In five years, the firm will have 24 satellites covering the breadth and width of the earth and will capture real-time videos of things, for example, a vehicle speeding through a highway.

The satellites will capture images of high resolution meant for commercial purposes. Currently, there are only nine satellites that can deliver images with such resolution but they are being utilised by the US security agencies for defence purposes.

The finer details


The advantage with such high resolution is that it can provide minute details of production, be it coal, iron ore or crude oil. For example, it can provide images of oil tankers that can tell us the pace of production by a particular country. The images can tell us the speed of an oil tanker movement by sea, giving indications of whether it will reach on time or be delayed.

Images from agricultural fields can provide details of how planting is progressing or what a crop’s health is.

Skybox currently has subscribers, including investors, for its data which include satellite imagery of oil shipments, pipeline activities and storage site.
According to the Wall Street Journal, an analyst at UBS has said that if he can buy satellite images of parking lots at Wal-Mart stores, he can project the company’s sales figures before the quarterly earnings report are announced.
Similarly, measurement of density of trucks outside Foxconn in Taiwan can let us know when the next iPhone is due.

Skybox can turn out to be the next in-thing that can have an impact across a spectrum of industries, starting from equities and commodities to corporate intelligence.

Experts point out to global positioning system (GPS) as an example for the Skybox’s potential. Initially, GPS was seen as a tool for defence purpose. Today, it has found varied uses, including movement of people and traffic.
Similarly, Skybox could lead to numerous apps and services, which, experts feel, no one can even think of now.

Skybox, according to its website, has plans to provide data and other services along with Google. It says it will revolutionise access to information. All these point to the potential for providing service at a fee.

Investors worried
These prospects have left many investors and market players worried. Last week, a US consumer protection body, Public Citizen, asked the US regulators to review the acquisition of Skybox. It said that the satellite technology could help manipulate commodity markets.

The watchdog said that satellite images of oil, gas and power infrastructure is already helping deep-pocketed firms such as banks and hedge funds gain advantage in trading intelligence.

Though other firms provide such data to traders, Google is seen gaining an unfair advantage through its huge customer base.

Public Citizen contends that Skybox’s technology could exacerbate the unfair advantage that already exists for bigger players in markets. Google and Skybox haven’t commented yet anything on this charge.

Besides this, charges of invasion of privacy have also been raised against Skybox. Along with the potential and Google’s scope to gain from a cheap buy, the unfolding scenario will be worth watching.
Why Google’s Skybox buy is worrying commodity investors

Lowering of STT, CTT unlikely

Lowering of STT, CTT unlikely
Transaction taxes on stocks and non-agro commodity trading are unlikely to be lowered in the Budget. If it happens, this will disappoint both the stock market and the commodity market. The stock market and its regulator SEBI wants Securities Transaction Tax to be lowered, while the commodity futures market and its regulator FMC appealed for complete removal or lowering of Commodity Transaction Tax.
However, considering the revenue constraints, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley may not oblige the exchanges. In the interim Budget, collection through STT in 2014-15 was estimated at ₹5,992 crore against collection of little over ₹5,000 crore in 2013-14.
There is no estimate available for Commodity Transaction Tax separately, which was introduced on non-agri commodities last July.

What's Wrong With This Picture?

It seems the bond market 'read' the report and the stock market skimmed the headlines...What's Wrong With This Picture?