Sunday, November 24, 2013

Technical Analysis - MCX Copper, Nickel, Lead, Crude Oil & Natural Gas.

Technical Analysis - MCX Copper, Nickel, Lead, Crude Oil & Natural Gas.

Copper (Rs 444)

The MCX copper declined below Rs 440 last week. But taking support from the 200-day moving average (currently at Rs 428.8), it jumped back. Now, it is close to the resistance zone of Rs 448-457. If the contract can sustain above Rs 440, a rise to test this resistance zone looks possible, but it may not breach Rs 457. On the other hand, a decline below Rs 440 can take the price lower to test the 200-day moving average again.
The medium-term outlook is bearish for a fall to Rs 400. A strong break below the support at Rs 428 can trigger this fall. Key resistances are at Rs 460 and Rs 470
Crude oil (Rs 5,992)
The MCX crude oil contract has risen well from the low of Rs 5,752 last week. The contract looks to be gearing up for a corrective rally. Immediate support is at Rs 5,900. The contract can rise to Rs 6,250 in the coming week on breach of the intermediate resistance at Rs 6,100. An eventual break above Rs 6,250 can take the price further higher to Rs 6,550. For the medium-term, Rs 6,600 will be key resistance level. Whether this resistance holds or gets broken during this corrective rally will then decide the trend.
Natural gas (Rs 235)
The MCX natural gas contract is heading towards the upper end of its short-term sideways range of Rs 210-240. Failure to breach Rs 240 can result in a decline to Rs 220 and the contract can retain this range for the next few weeks. However, the medium-term outlook is bullish as the contract has been moving in a bull channel for more than a year. The channel support is at Rs 200. As such, declines to the Rs 210-200 zone can attract fresh buying interest in the market. A bullish breakout above Rs 240 can take the price higher to Rs 270.
Nickel (Rs 844)
After the sharp fall below the 200-day moving average on Monday, the MCX nickel contract stayed flat between Rs 840 and Rs 855 for the rest of the week. The short-term outlook is bearish with the 200-day moving average resistance at Rs 861. Although there is support at Rs 840, the contract looks vulnerable to break this support and decline to Rs 800. The medium-term outlook is also bearish as long as the contract trades below the key resistance at Rs 900. The medium-term target will be Rs 740 on a breach of the key support at Rs 800.
Lead (Rs 131)
The MCX lead contract recovered very well from the intra-week low of Rs 127.6 to close flat for the week. Immediate resistance is at Rs 133, a breach of which can take the price further higher to Rs 136 for the short-term. Short-term support is at Rs 128 and at Rs 125. However, the medium-term outlook is bearish. A strong break above the key resistance at Rs 136 is required to turn the outlook positive. While below this resistance, the contract can decline to Rs 115 in the medium-term. As such, fresh selling can emerge on the short-term rallies to Rs 136.

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