Tuesday, April 22, 2014

What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling

Large speculators reduced ther S&P 500 positioning to net short this week and their NASDAQ longs to a one-year low as BofAML reports on CFTC data. Macros funds decreased their long exposure to S&P500 and NASDAQ to now hold short exposure. They also decreased their long exposure to US Dollar (raising their AUD longs to a record high) and maintained their long exposure to 10-year Treasuries. They decreased their long exposure to commodities and increased their long exposure to EM. Across all asset classes, positioning is at extremes.
Significant HF moves across asset classes, based on CFTC data
Equities. Large specs decreased S&P 500 to net short and reduced NASDAQ longs. They also increased Russell 2000 shorts last week

What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data
Agriculture. Large specs increased their long positioning in Soybean futures but decreased longs in Corn and Wheat futures
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data
Metals. Large specs decrease Gold and Silver longs and increased Copper shorts. They maintained Platinum and Palladium longs.
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data
Energy. Large specs increased their Crude longs and Gasoline longs. They also increased Natural Gas shorts but Heating Oil shorts.
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data
FX. Large specs increased their EUR, AUD and GBP longs. They decreased their JPY shorts and MXN longs position.
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data
Interest Rates. Large specs increased their short positions in 10-year while increasing their long position in 30-yr. They also reduced 2-year shorts
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data

One can't help but see this positioning and wonder just who the big boys are selling to - as we noted here,
Based on Bloomberg's Smart Money Flow indicator, there is a very significant amount of distribution going on... the question is just who is soaking up the smart money selling? Company buybacks, Johnny 5, or a greater-fool retail investor?

What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data

Perhaps this chart from Lance Roberts at STA Wealth provides some color for who?
What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data

However, the idea that individual investors are still "out of the market" should be taken with a bit of caution. The chart below is data compiled by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) which surveys it membership on portfolio allocation.  The data is compiled and released monthly. 


What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling CFTC Data

With cash hovering at the lowest levels since the "Tech Wreck," and equity exposure at the highest,investors are more than just "warming up" to equities. They are effectively "all in" with respect to the financial markets.

Monday, April 21, 2014

Barclays is the next big bank pulling out of commodities: report

Barclays is the next big bank pulling out of commodities: report

British multinational banking and financial services Barclays is said to be the next big bank planning to sell large parts of its metals, agricultural and energy business in a move that, FT.com reports (subs. required), will be announced on Tuesday.
The decision echoes moves by other major players, such as JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, which have been recently walking away from their commodities business.
Since the US Federal Reserve determined in 2003 that certain commodity activities were "complementary" to financial activities and therefore permissible to Wall Street bankers, many jumped at the chance, but that tide has now turned.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Royal Bank of Scotland are either shrinking their commodities units or plainly moving away from everything to do with them, including mining, processing, transportation, warehousing and trading.
JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) got $3.5bn last month after selling its physical commodities unit to Geneva-based trading house Mercuria, while Morgan Stanley has cut back on commodities operations and staff.
Barclays, which is one of the top five banks in commodities, got to control roughly 70% of the commodities trading market last year. But in response to pressure to cut costs and improve returns, the UK bank announced Friday a shakeup of its investment bank management team, including a new head of markets and new co-heads of banking.
The British lender also told staff last week it was looking to simplify its operations and that it could axe thousands of jobs, mainly at its investment arm, while conducting a strategic review, which will report next month.
Revenues for the investment banks from the sector surged to $15 billion at the peak of the cycle, but has now fallen back dramatically in line with a retreat in metal and mineral prices.
Braclays is set to present a strategic update on May 8.

12 Gold bars removed from Indian man's stomach

12 Gold bars removed from Indian man's stomach
Twelve bars of gold have been recovered from the stomach of a businessman in the Indian capital, Delhi, a surgeon treating him has said.
The 63-year-old man was admitted to hospital after complaining of vomiting and difficulty defecating.
He told his doctor that he had swallowed a bottle cap in anger, after a fight with his wife.
But when surgeons operated they found gold bars weighing nearly 400g (14oz) in his stomach instead of a bottle cap.
Doctors, who performed the operation on 9 April, told the BBC that police and customs authorities had questioned the businessman and confiscated the gold.
India, the world's largest consumer of gold, has seen a record rise in smuggling after a rise in duty on imports of metal to curb the current account deficit.
Dr CS Ramachandran, a senior surgeon at Delhi's Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, said he had never seen a "case like this in my life".
"This is the first time I have recovered gold from the stomach of a patient. I remember having taken out a bladder stone weighing 1kg from a patient. But finding gold in a patient's stomach was something unbelievable," he said.
"It was a tedious three-hour-long operation. He is an old patient and we had to be careful. We found 12 gold bars lying in a stack in his stomach."
The businessman, who had undergone four stomach surgeries in the past and is a diabetic, was admitted to the hospital earlier this month, with symptoms of "acute intestinal obstruction", Dr Ramachandran added.
Last year India's government hiked the import duty on gold three times to curb demand for the precious metal. Gold imports, which had peaked at 162,000kg in May 2013, came down to 19,300kg in November after the hike.

Gas Prices Hit 13-Month Highs, Prompt Macro Concerns

At $3.67, US Regular gasoline prices are their highest since March 2013 having risen over 12% (40c) in the last 2 months. This must be great news, right? It must mean world demand is picking up and driving up prices of crude oil as global trade soars (amid a collapsing Baltic Dry and decelerating Chinese growth). This can't be related to "war premia" right? - as we noted here - because stocks (which always know best) have discounted all this tomfoolery. However, as the following chart shows, each time gas prices have surged up toards the Maginot Line of $3.80, US macro-economic fundamentals have collapsed... the only problem is, this time is different - because macro data is already weak going in (and expectations for the post-weather pop are high). 
Gas prices heading towards the crucial $3.80 level - and US macro is already weak ahead of this turning point...Gas Prices Hit 13-Month Highs, Prompt Macro Concerns

Weekly Economic Data for the week 19-Apr-14 to 25-Apr-14

Investors pay close attention to the announcement of these events because of the high probability that it will affect the direction of the market. You can get the same Economic Calendar at https://www.dynamiclevels.com/economic-calendar.
Exp.: Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior: Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today: Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year: Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price: This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual: Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 19-Apr-14 to 25-Apr-14
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
22-Apr-2014 07-30 PM United States Existing Home Sales 4.55M 4.60M -0.05M 0.16 Neutral
22-Apr-2014 07-30 PM European Monetary Union EC - Consumer Confidence -9.30 -9.30 0.00 1.04 Neutral
 
23-Apr-2014 07-15 AM China HSBC China Manufacturing PMI 48.3 48.0 0.30 0.97 Neutral
23-Apr-2014 02-00 PM United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes          
23-Apr-2014 04-30 PM United States MBA Mortgage Applications   4.30%   7.79 Neutral
23-Apr-2014 07-15 PM United States Markit US Manufacturing PMI 56.0 55.5 0.50 1.15 Neutral
23-Apr-2014 07-30 PM United States US-New Home Sales 0.45M 0.44M 0.01 0.01 Neutral
23-Apr-2014 08-00 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change   10.013   3.45 Neutral
 
24-25 Apr-2014 - European Monetary Union EC - ECB's Draghi, Knot, Nouy to Attend Dutch Central Bank Conf.          
24-Apr-2014 07-30 AM China CB March Leading Economic Index - - 0.00 0.76 Neutral
24-Apr-2014 01-30 PM Germany IFO - Business Climate 110.4 110.7 -0.30 0.00 Neutral
24-Aprr-2014 2-30 PM European Monetary Union ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks in Amsterdam          
24-Apr-2014 06-00 PM United States US-Initial Jobless Claims 315K 304K 11.00 14.63 Neutral
24-Apr-2014 06-00 PM United States US-Durable Goods Orders 2.00% 2.20% -0.20% 6.72 Neutral
24-Apr-2014 08-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change   24.00   33.60 Neutral
 
25-Apr-2014 07-25 PM United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 83 82.6 0.40 2.48 Neutral


INFOGRAPHIC: Is deep sea mining worth the risk?


Is deep sea mining worth the risk?

The robot is ready - so when will deep sea mining start ?

The robot is ready - so when will deep sea mining start ?
* Most potential subsea minerals in international waters
* U.N. body expects mining code in 2-3 years
* Canadian company ready to mine off Papua New Guinea
By Stephen Eisenhammer and Silvia Antonioli
NEWCASTLE, England/LONDON, April 18 (Reuters) - The world's first deep sea mining robot sits idle on a British factory floor, waiting to claw up high grade copper and gold from the seabed off Papua New Guinea (PNG) - when a wrangle over terms is solved.
Beyond PNG, in international waters, regulation and royalty terms for mining the planet's subsea wealth have also yet to be finalised. The world waits for the judgement of a United Nations agency based in Jamaica.
"If we can take care of the environment we have a brand new day ahead of us. The marine area beyond national jurisdiction is 50 percent of the Ocean," said Nii Odunton, secretary general of the U.N.'s International Seabed Authority (ISA).
"I believe the grades look good, the abundance looks good, I believe that money will be made," Odunton said from the ISA offices in Kingston.
High-tech advances, depleted easy-to-reach minerals onshore and historically high prices have boosted the idea of mining offshore, where metals can be fifteen times the quality of land deposits.
In Newcastle, the "beasty", as engineer Keith Franklin calls his machine, lies in wait, resembling a submersible tank with four metre wide cutting blades.
Built by Soil Machine Dynamics (SMD), it will put Canadian listed Nautilus Minerals on course to become the first company to commercially mine in deep water.
Nautilus' primary resource, Solwara 1, about 1,500 metres underwater, is a Seafloor Massive Sulphide (SMS) deposit, which forms along hydrothermal vents where mineral-rich fluids spurt from cracks in the ocean crust.
Equipped with cameras and 3D sonar sensors the robot is driven by two pilots from a control room on the vessel above, attached via a giant power cable.
"The cameras aren't enough by themselves because the machine will be working by vents where black soot spurts from the ocean crust and it will sometimes be near impossible to see anything," said Stef Kapusniak, business development manager for mining at SMD. "The 3D sonar will allow it to make images and send it back to the control room."
The machine then cuts up the sea floor and sucks the rocks through a pipe to deposit it in mounds behind - "like icing a cake," Kapusniak said. Another machine, yet to be built, will then help suck the ore to the surface.
Nautilus aims to produce 80,000-100,000 tonnes of copper and 100,000-200,000 ounces of gold - equivalent to a modest onshore mine. It was supposed to be producing by now, but disagreements with the PNG government over financial terms have set it back.
Chief Executive Mike Johnston told Reuters he was confident a resolution would be sorted out and the company would be mining within two to three years.
Most of the world's best deposits lie even deeper than Nautilus' Solwara 1, at around 6,000 metres in an area known as the Clarion Clipperton Zone.
Large numbers of manganese nodules - potato sized rocks rich in copper, cobalt and nickel - lie across this 4.5 million square kilometre abyssal plain between Hawaii and Mexico.
LICENSES ALREADY AWARDED
The U.N.'s ISA is drawing up a code to deal with some environmental concerns and the commercial terms for deep-sea mining. It predicts it will be finished in around two or three years, with mining still 5-10 years away.
"It's only after the code is in place and people are happy with it that the huge investments needed to start deep-sea mining will occur," ISA's Odunton, a Ghanaian, said.
ISA is, however, already doling out exploration licenses - 19 have been approved. Odunton said interest in them had "catapulted" in the past five years.
In order to get a licence through ISA an applicant must be sponsored or partnered with a country. For nations like Japan which lack their own resource wealth, deep-sea mining is a potential way to secure mineral supply for the future.
China, the world's largest metals consumers, is also one of the most active in exploring the area.
Britain has an exploration licence in partnership with UK Seabed Resources, a subsidiary of defence firm Lockheed Martin .
"These are the days you have to take a position, especially as a government," said Martijn Schouten, managing director at IHC's mining division - an equipment maker which targets seabed mining as its next growth driver.
IHC is the leading partner in an European Union funded project called Blue Mining, begun in February, and will look at the business case and technology for deep-sea mining over the next four years.
This new frontier is an exciting prospect for developing island nations like Tonga and Nauru, which both have exploration licences. For Tonga, where Nautilus says it has been collecting encouraging exploration results, it could be a game changer.
"The revenue stream and taxes from a medium sized mine would have an enormous benefit to the country," Nautilus' Johnston said.
The main companies looking to mine the seabed, like Nautilus and UK Seabed Resources, are not, however, traditional mining firms, although Anglo American does have a 5 percent stake in the former.
IHC said most of its contracts were with technology-based companies that were not in the mining industry, although it would not specify further due to confidentiality clauses.
IHC said it has had discussions with oil majors who are beginning to show an interest in deep sea mining.
But, with little of the deep ocean mapped or explored, environmentalists worry about the potential loss of fauna and biospheres whose existence is not yet understood.
"Only 3 percent of the oceans are protected and less than 1 percent of the high seas, making them some of the least protected places on earth. The emerging threat of seabed mining is an urgent wake-up call," Greenpeace said in a report last year.
"I think we really have to be careful about what happens to the environment," said ISA's Odunton. "We don't know enough to take some of the risks we've taken on land." 

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Powerful 7.5 magnitude earthquake strikes Mexico, buildings shaken in capital

Powerful 7.5 magnitude earthquake strikes Mexico, buildings shaken in capital
A magnitude 7.5 earthquake hit Mexico on Friday in the western state of Guerrero, north of the resort of Acapulco. The quake shook the capital Mexico City for at least 30 seconds, with building swaying as people fled on to the streets.
The city was reportedly more crowded than usual because of the Easter holiday. Despite the relative severity of the quake there are no immediate reports of any major damage.

7.5-magnitude quake strikes off Papua New Guinea

7.5-magnitude quake strikes off Papua New Guinea
An earthquake struck late Saturday off Papua New Guinea's eastern coast with a preliminary magnitude of 7.5, the U.S. Geological Survey said.
The quake struck at 11:27 p.m. (9:27 a.m. ET) and occurred at a depth of 19 miles (32 km), the USGS said.
It was centered 47 miles (75 km) southwest of Panguna, Papua New Guinea.
After the quake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami warning for Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, but then canceled it. Saturday's incident is the latest in a series of seismic events in the region over the week. They began with magnitude-7.1 and magnitude-6.5 earthquakes on April 11, just to the northeast and southeast, respectively.
Since then, 45 earthquakes of magnitude-4.5 or greater have occurred nearby. Earthquakes with magnitudes between 7.0 and 7.9 are classified by USGS as "major," second only to "great," which are 8.0 and up.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Soybeans Rise to 10-Month High After Record Crush in U.S.

Soybeans Rise to 10-Month High After Record Crush in U.S.
Soybeans extended their climb to the highest level in more than 10 months after a report showed record demand from U.S. mills, boosting concern that supplies from the world’s second-biggest exporter would be reduced.
Soybeans for July delivery rose as much as 0.8 percent to $15.2025 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest price for a most-active contract since June 6. Futures were at $15.155 by 6:53 a.m. local time, rising for a fourth day and taking this year’s increase to 17 percent.
Processors crushed 153.84 million bushels in March, up 12 percent from a year earlier and the most for the month since at least 1998, the National Oilseed Processors Association reported April 15. Domestic stockpiles at the end of August will be 135 million bushels, less than the 145 million bushels forecast in March and below 141 million last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last week.
Soybean prices are “supported by worsening tightness in U.S. soybean supplies,” Luke Mathews, a commodity Strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note today. Slightly better-than-expected Chinese economic data has also supported “improved sentiment within the oilseed market and helped traders turn a blind eye to recent reports of Chinese soybean cancellations” and defaults, he said.
Importers in China, the biggest buyer, may default on as much as 2 million metric tons of shipments, according to the U.S. Soybean Export Council’s Beijing office. The country’s gross domestic product rose 7.4 percent in the first quarter, government data showed yesterday. The median estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey was 7.3 percent.
Image Source :- KSUGRAIN  Very Informative do Visit.

Teck's Red Dog zinc mine 'operating as normal' after earthquakes

Teck's Red Dog zinc mine 'operating as normal' after earthquakes
Two earthquakes, a magnitude 5.5 and a magnitude 5.4, struck near the Red Dog Operations zinc-lead mine in remote northwest Alaska, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

It said the quakes, which struck minutes apart, were centered just a few miles (km) southeast of Red Dog Mine, the world's largest producer of zinc, which is operated by Canadian mining company Teck Resources.
Teck Resources said on Friday its Red Dog zinc mine, the world's largest, in Alaska is operating as usual after two earthquakes struck a few miles from the site.
"Mild tremors were felt at Red Dog operations. There were no safety concerns and the mine is currently operating as normal," a spokesman said in an email. 

Russia Confirms Troop Build-Up Near Ukraine; Warns West, More Sanctions "Absolutely Unacceptable"

For the first time, Russia has confirmed that it has built up its military presence on the Ukrainian border (according to Agence France Presse). On the heels of the de-escalation and the West's threat of tougher sanctions (if Russia failed to abide by the new 'deal'), Kremlin spokesman Dmirty Peskov told Rossiya TV that "we have troops in different regions, and there are troops close to the Ukrainian border. Some are based there, others have been sent as reinforcements due to the situation in Ukraine." Reuters also reports that Washington statements "are unlikely to help dialogue," and further sanctions would be "absolutely unacceptable." It seems the 'deal' has done little to calm anything but the US equity market as Peskov blasted "You can't treat Russia like a guilty schoolboy."

The Daily Mail's latest update on suspected (now confirmed) Russian troop build-upRussia Confirms Troop Build-Up Near Ukraine; Warns West, More Sanctions "Absolutely Unacceptable"

Reuters adds that President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said, "Statements like those made at a high level in Washington that the United States will follow in detail how Russia fulfils its obligations ... are unlikely to help dialogue,"
"You can't treat Russia like a guilty schoolboy who has to put a cross on a piece of paper to show he has done his homework," Peskov said in an interview with Russia's First Channel. "That kind of language is unacceptable."
Russia's Foreign Ministry accused U.S. officials of seeking to whitewash what it said was the use of force by the Ukrainian government against protesters in the country's mainly Russian-speaking eastern provinces.
"The blame for the Ukrainian crisis and its current aggravation is unreasonably being placed on Russia," the ministry said in a statement.
"The American side is once again stubbornly trying to whitewash the current actions of Kiev's authorities, who have embarked on a course for the violent suppression of protesters in the southeast who are expressing their legitimate indignation over the infringements of their rights."

Sliding Chinese currency takes blame for gold price weakness

Sliding Chinese currency takes blame for gold price weakness
The price of gold ended the holiday-shortened week below the psychologically and technically important $1,300 level, losing almost 2% since Monday.
The sell-off was blamed on an easing of tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine after marathon diplomatic talks on Thursday.
The gold price was also hurt by renewed profit-taking ahead of the Good Friday long weekend when many markets in the West are closed for trading.
Investors continued to pull money out of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD), the world's largest physically-backed gold ETF accounting for some 40% of total holdings in the industry.
A new report suggests there may be other reasons for the recent weakness in the yellow metal: The slide in the value of the Chinese currency, the yuan, to levels against the US dollar last seen in February.
Copper being used in China as collateral for loans and to bypass the country's capital control regulations has long been a staple of the industry.
With the tight credit conditions inside the country, the practice has spread to iron ore and gold. Some estimates put the the portion of copper stockpiles used in finance deals as high as 80%, while 40% of iron ore inventories could be tied up for trade credit.
This week a report by the World Gold Council said Chinese firms could have locked up as much as 1,000 tonnes of gold in financing deals.
DailyFX explains the dynamic of how this could push down the gold price:
Gold has been used for some even more complex and lucrative structures surrounding the skirting of capital controls
"The highest USD/CNY fixing rates in months may have forced the unwinding of some extremely overleveraged positions. Although the systems of financing are often complex as we saw with copper, gold has been used for some even more complex and lucrative structures surrounding the skirting of capital controls.
"In regards to the depreciating Yuan, political pressure continues to build with Treasury officials warning the Chinese not to weaken the Yuan for their economic benefit. Meanwhile, the daily reference rates out of the PBoC continue to move higher toward the ominous 6.25 mark. That is said to be the level where a large concentration of leveraged financial vehicles may experience some serious stresses."
Another indication that there may be lots of gold on offer in China is the disappearance of premiums paid on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
From premiums that topped out at $37 when gold was trading around $1,200 last year, traders are now offering gold at a discount or a couple of dollars above to the quoted London spot price.
Driven in part by a weakening yuan discounts on gold in China widened to as much as $9 an ounce below when the price were headed towards $1,400 in March.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Chalco to Halt 600,000-tpy Aluminum Capacity, 800,000-tpy Alumina Capacity

Chalco to Halt 600,000-tpy Aluminum Capacity, 800,000-tpy Alumina Capacity
Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (02600) (Chalco) announces that, given the massive over-capacity of electrolytic aluminium, the depressed market price of products and higher cost of electricity of enterprises at present, it has determined to implement flexible production arrangements for certain electrolytic aluminum and alumina production lines, which involve temporary shutdown of production capacity of 600,000 tonnes of electrolytic aluminum and 800,000 tonnes of alumina, respectively.

Chinese Base Metal Demand Thaws but Stocks Still High: Barclays

Chinese Base Metal Demand Thaws but Stocks Still High: Barclays
Chinese base metals demand has begun to thaw, with downstream orders rebounding and factories sourcing raw material. However, inventories remain high, and demand needs to strengthen further for the market to rebalance, said Barclays in a research note.
According to Barclays, last week Chinese market participants indicated metal demand had begun to pick up in China. Factories reported a moderate bounce in orders that allowed them to source more raw materials. Tax-paid spot copper premiums in Shanghai recovered to $29/t in April, in contrast to a $6/t discount in March. SHFE futures also shifted to backwardation, a sign of a tighter market.
Behind these price signals was a seasonal rebound in industrial activities. While sentiment turned sharply negative during the copper price sell-off in mid-March, activities were in fact picking up gradually. The State Grid Corp of China awarded two rounds of tenders in March, and other infrastructure projects also went under way. At the same time, government reassurances that China could deliver growth began to steady sentiment. A stabilizing USD/CNY after steep CNY depreciation has also helped.
However, demand is still best described as lukewarm rather than red-hot. YTD State Grid transformer tenders were still 13% lower y/y, and tight credit continues to constrain a variety of activities, from construction to property sales. The government, while promising to fast-track projects and provide state funding, has carefully managed expectations and avoided relaxing monetary policy too quickly.
March import data remind us there is still a lot of inventory to digest, though stock levels have largely stabilized. Preliminary data from China put unwrought copper and semi imports at 420Kt in March, implying roughly 295Kt of refined copper. Q1 unwrought copper and semi imports stand at 1.34Mt, the second-highest Q1 imports in history. While arrivals should begin to thin in coming months, reflecting soured financing appetite, bonded inventories are still high. On the other hand, recent feedback suggests that inventories have only inched up slightly since March, as outflows from the warehouses to the domestic market roughly offset imports and smelter deliveries to the warehouses. Still, Chinese demand needs to pick up more strongly for the market to rebalance.

Crude Alert: Gartman Is Now Long Oil

Having been stopped out of his "long punt" in copper futures (which are, we remind readers, levered via margin and not a simple cash percentage loss of capital), world-renowned (for something) Dennis Gartman has issued his latest missive - ultimate contrarian call - advice... "we are sellers this morning of copper and buyers of crude oil, one relative to the other, with the problems in China weighing upon the former while crude has held impressively as other commodity prices have fallen." Crude oil longs beware... prepare to be Gartman'd.

Via Dennis Gartman,
We were stopped out of our copper position yesterday, losing 1.2% on the position, which when compared to the 10-15% movements we’ve seen recently in NFLX or TSLA or others such as that seems rather inconsequential but is important nonetheless. Those not out should be out... now.
[deflecting the futures-contract - and thus 10-20x levered via margin - 1.2% loss in copper with a 10-15% gain in unlevered risk positions in NFLX and TSLA (a magical catch we suppose) seems a little disingenous to us - but we digress]
NEW RECOMMENDATION: Indeed, we are sellers this morning of copper and buyers of crude oil, one relative to the other, with the problems in China weighing upon the former while crude has held impressively as other commodity prices have fallen. As we write, June WTI crude is trading 103.79 and July copper is trading $3.0010. We’ll have stops in tomorrow’s TGL, but we’d not wish to risk more than 2% on this rather unusual spread position.

Crude Alert: Gartman Is Now Long Oil

Visualizing Taxes Around The World

Visualizing Taxes Around The World

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Over 40% Of The S&P 500 Is In Correction Mode

Over 40% Of The S&P 500 Is In Correction Mode
The S&P 500 is down around 4% from its highs (outperforming the high-beta hangovers of Nasdaq and Russell 2000 that were down almost 10% from their highs at today's lows). But under the surface, the S&P is ugly with the 500 index members down 10.5% on average. 213 members of the S&P 500 are down over 10% (in correction mode). Only 72 member of the 500-stock index are 'beating' the index... this is not just a small-cap growth-hype selloff... it's spreading..

Chile Sees Its 2014 Copper Output at Record, Cuts Price View

Chile Sees Its 2014 Copper Output at Record, Cuts Price View
(Reuters) - Chile reduced its global outlook for copper prices to an average $3.05 per pound this year, down from its previous estimate of $3.15, as prospects for growth ease in top buyer China.
Prices are expected to further lose ground in 2015, falling to $3.00 per pound, state copper commission Cochilco said on Tuesday.
World No.1 copper producer Chile is expected to boost its output by 5.0 percent this year to a record 6.07 million tonnes of the red metal as the new Ministro Hales, Sierra Gorda and Caserones mines come on line, Cochilco added.
Chile, which produces a third of the world's red metal, is expected to further increase its production by 2.8 percent to 6.24 million tonnes next year.
Increased mining output is poised to trigger a global copper surplus of 373,000 tonnes this year, which Cochilco's new president Sergio Hernandez deemed "not significant."

Copper price rally comes to abrupt end

Copper price rally comes to abrupt end
In late afternoon New York trade on Tuesday May copper changed hands at $2.995 a pound as weakening demand from China and a flood of new supply worry the market.
Earlier in the day the red metal fell as low as $2.965, down more than 2% from Monday's close.
Tuesday's decline marks something of a reversal in sentiment after weeks of steady gains as the copper price dug itself out of a near four-year low struck mid-March.
Copper is down nearly 12% from opening levels for the year as the market adjusts to slower growth in China which consumes more than 40% of the world's copper.
China's copper imports have not slowed down, rising a whopping 31% to 420,000 tonnes in March over last last year and bringing the first quarter total to a record-breaking 1.3 million tonnes.
Those deals are now being unwound supplying even more copper to the market.But those numbers may be misleading and do not reflect a sharp fall-off in end demand. That's because much of that copper has been tied up in finance deals as collateral for trade credit and is not being put to industrial use.
On top of that as activity in China slows it drags down the copper price thanks to the widespread use of the metal in construction, transport and manufacturing.China's copper imports are highly price sensitive and traders could have simply made the most of the fall to $2.92 a pound a month ago to stock up.
The copper market has also been disappointed at the lack of major policy stimulus in China.
A number of small steps taken by Beijing including bringing forward already announced infrastructure projects has encouraged hopes in the market of bolder action.
But last week Premier Li Keqiang poured cold water on the notion saying: "China will not resort to short-term stimulus policies just because of temporary economic fluctuations … we will pay more attention to sound development in the medium and long run."
The supply side is also driving down price expectations.
The closely-watched Thomson Reuters GFMS Copper Survey forecasts a period of copper market surpluses and predicts the average price to test $2.75 a pound ($6,000/tonne) in the second half.
Global mine production rose by 8% to 17.8 million tonnes last year, its fastest pace in over a decade thanks to marked expansion top producer Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Output is to top 22.2 million tonnes this year from just over 21 million tonnes in 2013 led by Codelco's new 160,000 tonnes-plus Ministro Hales mine, Glencore's Las Bambas project in Peru it sold to China's Minmetals this week, the first full year of production at Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia and expansion at BHP Billiton's already giant Escondida mine.