Gold (Rs 28,564)
The year-end holiday season has put the market in silent mode. The MCX gold futures contract stayed flat after declining below its 200-day moving average. For the short-term, Rs 28,200 will be an important support. Failure to decline below this level in the coming weeks can keep the contract in a sideways range between Rs 28,200 and Rs 31,000. Traders with a high risk appetite can go long with a tight stop-loss at Rs 27,950. However, the medium-term trend is down. Rally to Rs 31,000 will be a good opportunity to enter into fresh short positions. The contract can fall to Rs 25,500 in the medium-term. Only a strong rise above Rs 31,000 will turn the outlook bullish.
Silver (Rs 45,154)
The MCX silver contract is trading flat. Its 200-day moving average resistance is currently at Rs 45,680. A break above this resistance can take the contract to Rs 48,500 in the coming weeks. On the other hand, if the contract declines below Rs 43,500, it can fall to Rs 41,000. Traders have to wait for a breakout on either side of Rs 43,500-45,680 to trade on the contract. For the medium-term, Rs 40,000 will be a crucial support. The probability of the contract testing this support remains high till price is below Rs 48,500.
Copper (Rs 468.2)
The MCX copper contract has risen sharply as indicated last week. The short-term bullish outlook remains intact. But a dip to Rs 463-460 cannot be ruled out. Supports are at Rs 462 and at Rs 455. Traders can take fresh long positions now and accumulate more longs on dips to Rs 462 and Rs 455.
Intermediate resistance is at Rs 470. A breach of this resistance will open doors for a rise to Rs 510 in the coming weeks. For the medium-term, Rs 510 is a key resistance level which can halt the current rally. A reversal from here can see the contract declining again.
Crude oil (Rs 6,261)
The MCX crude oil contract closed the week making moderate gains. Traders can hold their long positions taken near Rs 6,100 and retain the stop-loss at Rs 6,040. Supports are at Rs 6,100 and Rs 6,000. But caution is required as the contract is nearing its crucial 21-week moving average resistance at Rs 6,354. Exit longs if there is a reversal after hitting this resistance.
A break above Rs 6,354 can, however, take the contract to Rs 6,500. Failure to breach Rs 6,500 will keep the medium-term downtrend intact and the contract can fall to Rs 5,500. But if the contract manages to break above Rs 6,500 decisively, then it will signal a trend reversal.
Natural gas (Rs 273.4)
The MCX natural gas contract was oscillating between Rs 271 and Rs 281 last week. The previous high of Rs 281.6 recorded in January 2010 will be an important resistance level to watch. Failure to breach this level can take it down to Rs 255 in the coming weeks.
However, if it breaks above Rs 281.6, the contract can target Rs 310 in the short-term. The medium-term trend is up with strong supports are at Rs 240 and Rs 220.