China's MCC shuts Ramu nickel mine in PNG after attacks

The Ramu nickel and cobalt mine in Papua New Guinea was shut this week by its Chinese owners after it was attacked by villagers on Monday, according to media reports.

The mine, forecast to produce 22,000 tonnes of nickel in 2014, is operated by Ramu NiCo, which is majority owned and run by Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd 

Ramu NiCo said equipment, including computers, printers, and phones, "costing millions of kina" were badly damaged or removed from its office, according to The Australian newspaper.

One local report said preliminary investigations found the attacks were spurred by concerns about the company's hiring policies for mine workers, while Ramu NiCo has been focusing on training locals to be able to work at the mine.

Minority owner Highlands Pacific's top executives and a spokesman were not immediately available to comment on the situation at the mine.

Australian miner Western Areas sees strong bids coming for its nickel

Australia's no. 3 nickel miner, Western Areas , said on Monday a ban by Indonesia of nickel ore exports was helping stoke strong interest in a tender it is planning for future concentrate sales.

With the ban starting to pinch world supply, metals refining companies and trading houses were scrambling to secure high-purity nickel concentrate for blending with lower grade material to produce metal fetching price premiums, said Western Areas's Executive Director David Southam.

Nickel sells for about $18,380 per tonne compared with $13,900 immediately before the ban went into effect on Jan. 12.

A 13,000-tonnes-per-year supply contract Western Areas holds with Chinese metals refiner Jinchuan Group expires at the end of 2014.

Nickel is being driven, say analysts, on bets that China is running short of the metal used to make stainless steel because of Indonesia's ban. Until the ban, aimed at spurring a value-added processing industry, Indonesia accounted for 15-20 percent of world supply.

However, nickel inventories are recently hitting record highs as hidden stocks leave China following a fraud probe at Qingdao's port, showing supplies are plentiful despite a halt to shipments from Indonesia, which could squash further supply-side price increases. 

Still, Southam said the company was already fielding expressions of interest from a range of potential buyers and also expects to see hefty competition emerging from nickel smelters, commodity traders, other nickel producers, including Jinchuan, and stainless steel companies.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Diggers and Dealers mining forum, Southam said Western Areas was producing a high-magnesium-bearing nickel concentrate commanding 90 percent or more of the London Metal Exchange refined metal price.

He declined to name those showing interest in buying the concentrate.

BHP Billiton , which already buys 12,000 tonnes of nickel in concentrate from Western Areas to feed into its Australian smelter, is seen as a logical contender for the additional material, following the closure of one of its own mines last year due to earthquake damage.

Southam said there were signs the ban was working in Indonesia's favor, with some Chinese nickel pig iron producers already relocating to Indonesia to construct plants.

"As that happens, it is less likely that Indonesia would do away with its ban," Southam said. "All indications so far are that the ban is going to hold."

Other Australian miners are also benefiting. Sirius Resources NL is in late-stage negotiations with a trio of major nickel smelters to supply up to 26,000 tonnes of nickel concentrate annually. 

Sirius stock has risen more than six-fold in the two years since it discovered the Nova nickel deposit in west Australia, partly on expectations the concentrate would command a premium from smelting companies when output begins in late 2016.

Source: Reuters

Central America's Largest Nickel Mine Resumes Operation after 30 Years of Shutdown

Fenix mine, the largest nickel mine in Central America has resumed its operation after long years of shut down.

 The authorities took the decision amid violent clashes between the natives and security forces, disputes relating the land ownership and current lawsuits for murder and gang rape reported there.

The largest nickel mine in Guatemala has been shut down for 30 years. It was inaugurated by the president Otto Pérez during his recent visit to the site. He called the mine as the biggest investment in the history of the nation.

Years of alleged killings, intimidation, violence, harassment and evictions of Q’eqchi’ people in the Fenix region made hindrance to the mining operations there. Some of the people filed lawsuits for getting legal title of their land.

At present, three lawsuits are ongoing for the 2007 gang rapes allegedly committed by company security, the army and police, for 2009 murder of Q’eqchi’ man Adolfo Ich Chaman and for shooting German Chub allegedly committed by company security.  

The Fenix mine is one of the largest nickel mines in Guatemala, located in El Estor in Izabal Department.The mine has mineral deposits of about 36.1 million tonnes of ore grading 1.86% nickel

Russia scraps nickel, copper export duties ahead of schedule

The Russian government said it would cancel export duties for nickel and copper ahead of schedule, as expected, signalling support for a project by Norilsk Nickel , the world's largest nickel producer.

Prices of nickel, used in making stainless steel, have gained 38 percent this year after top exporter Indonesia in January banned shipments of unprocessed ore, leading to fears that shortages would develop.

Russia's decision on Thursday to cut duties to zero from the current 3.75 percent for unalloyed nickel and 10 percent for copper cathodes will come into affect in 30 days after its official publication, which is expected in a few days.

The cut to zero was originally slated for 2016.

Norilsk, which is partially owned by Russian tycoon Vladimir Potanin and aluminium giant Rusal said in May it expected the duties to be cancelled early, which would provide the company an additional roughly 11 billion roubles ($315 million).

Norilsk will use the additional funds to shut down its 72-year-old nickel plant in the town of Norilsk. The shutdown will not affect its production plans. 

The decision to cut duties will add between $120 million and $140 million to Norilsk's 2014 core earnings (EBITDA), currently estimated at $5 billion, analysts at Otkritie Capital said in a note on Thursday.

($1 = 34.9550 Russian Roubles)

Nickel Posts Longest Slump in Five Months on Supply Gain

Nickel prices fell to cap the longest slump in five months as inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose to a record.

Stockpiles have climbed 19 percent this year to 311,088 metric tons, and open interest has dropped to a four-month low. Prices have jumped 34 percent this year, partly because Indonesia barred shipments of unprocessed ores, spurring concerns that supplies will trail demand.

“The LME stock rise reflects the reality that the global market remained in surplus during the first half of the year,” Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts, including Vivienne Lloyd in London, said in a report. “There’s no doubt to us that much of the rise in prices that took place up to May was speculative and anticipatory” of production deficits, they said.

Nickel for delivery in three months tumbled 2.8 percent to settle at $18,660 a ton at 5:58 p.m. on the LME, the biggest decline since May 15. The metal dropped for the fifth straight session, the longest slump since Jan. 30.

Global Nickel market to see deficit in 2015-'17: Eramet

The French mining and metallurgy major Eramet predicts the global nickel market to remain in deficit during 2015-2017 if Indonesia persists with the ban on exports of unprocessed nickel. The company CEO Bertrand Madelin expressed the view while speaking at a company news conference in Tokyo.

According to the company, stocks of nickel ore at Chinese ports are likely to reach lower levels by the end of this year. The world nickel market will end up in slight deficit by end-2014. The Chinese stock levels are likely to deplete owing to the ongoing Indonesian export ban. The global nickel market had reported nearly 150,000 mt of surplus in 2013.

The company foresees the global nickel market to end in real deficit by 2015 on continuing Indonesian ban. A similar ban from Philippines is likely to add to deficit-woes, added Madelin.

Eramet is a French multinational mining and metallurgy company, listed on the Euronext Paris exchange. The company produces non-ferrous metals and derivatives, nickel alloys and superalloys, and high-performance special steels. Through its subsidiary Société Le Nickel, the company has its historical roots in nickel mining, and for over 100 years has maintained a large mining operation in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia. It is also a major producer of manganese from mines in Gabon.

Global Nickel surplus reached 12,600 tons in Jan-Apr '14: INSG

According to International Nickel Study Group (INSG), the surplus in global nickel market dropped significantly year-on-year during the month of April this year. The global nickel market surplus totaled 4,000 tons in April this year. This is 55.56% down when compared with the surplus data during April last year. The global nickel market surplus during April 2013 was 9,000 tons.

The nickel surplus in April increased when compared with the previous month. The global nickel surplus surged by 11% month-on-month during April. The production of Nickel during the month of March this year exceeded the monthly demand by 1,600 tons.

INSG notes that that the global nickel surplus during the four-month period from January to April this year dropped significantly over the previous year. The surplus narrowed by more than 75% during the initial four-month period of the year. The global surplus of nickel dropped from 51,000 tons during January to April 2013 to 12,600 tons during the corresponding four-month period this year.

The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) - an autonomous, intergovernmental organization established in 1990 and located in Lisbon, Portugal, is responsible for collection and publication of improved and latest statistics on world nickel market.

Blockade at Vale’s Onça Puma nickel project in Brazil ends

A blockade at Vale’s Onça Puma nickel project in Brazil has ended after the indigenous people who had occupied the area demanding better compensation left the plant, the miner said on Monday June 16.

Nearly 350 indigenous people of Xikrin do Cateté had blockaded the entrance of the plant in the Brazilian state of Pará on Monday, after having occupied the area the previous week from Thursday morning until Saturday evening. "Workers exit was not blocked. Only nickel production was paralysed," federal prosecutors from Pará state said.

Vale and Amazon Indians begin talks after threats of setting mine on fire

Brazil’s Vale (NYSE:VALE) and members of the Amazon Xikrin tribe made short-term peace late Saturday after Indians blocked access to the company’s Onca Puma nickel mine in the country’s northern state of Para for two days.

According to Vale, Brazil’s largest mining company, over 400 Indians had been blocking the main entrance to Onca Puma, threatening to set it on fire if their demands were not heard.

The firm, the world's second-largest nickel producer, said in a statement quoted by AP that locals want to modify an agreement to mitigate the mine's impact on its community's development.

Negotiations over the Indians demands will resume Monday, the company added

Onca Puma began operation in 2011 and it is expected to hit 60% of its 53,000 tons of nickel annual capacity this year. In 2012, Vale faced furnace design problems, and it was forced to shut down the operation in June. Later that year, the firm had to take $2.85 billion write-down on the nickel mine.

Nickel Miner, MMG Exploration Starts Drilling Program in Tanzania

MMG Exploration Holding Ltd, a Global resources company has started a major nickel sulphide mining program at Ntaka Hill of Southern Tanzania. This is joint venture project with IMX Resources. IMX has already agreed with MMG for this JV investment project of $60 million last year for a high grade mineralization at Nachingwea.

This has marked the culmination of exploration effort, worth $50 million, over 8 years and has identified as the world class nickel sulphide province in southern Tanzania. Gary Sutherland, IMX Resources Limited Managing Director said that the drilling would test a host of wide, greenish and advanced nickel sulphide targets, which was discovered during the MMG’s recent soil sampling and geophysics programs.

Gary Sutherland said that the extensive new investment reflected the joint venture partners’ strong belief that the Ntaka Hill could become a world-class nickel sulphide province. MMG will mine a set of new targets in order to mark up the high-grade nickel sulphide mineralization. The new targets were uncovered during the step of comprehensive programs led by MMG for the last seven months and this gave a significant breakthrough in the exploration process in Nachingwea.

Sutherland also said that the current drilling program wills continue till August 2014 and the drilling program comprises of 14,775m of diamond drilling and 8,700m of RC drilling i.e., a total of 23,000m drilling at Ntaka Hill, Lionja. They also aim at regional areas across the border of Nachingwea Province.

Under the JV investment norm, MMG can earn up to 60 percent of the Nachingwea Property as it spends $60 million for exploration and other related activities for a period of five year. The current program is the first part of the JV agreement, in which MMG will earn about 15% share by investing $10 million by this year September. The first results are expected to flow out in early next quarter. The Ntaka Hill Nickel Sulphide Project is located on IMX's Nachingwea Property of south-eastern Tanzania.

Chinese customs releases nickel import statistics for April '14

The Chinese customs authorities have released the export and import statistics for the month of April this year.

According to the data, the total imports of unwrought Nickel amounted to 16,250.8 mt during the month. The largest exporter of unwrought nickel to the country was Russia. The imports from Russia totaled 8,435.4 mt, accounting for more than 50% of the total imports by the country during the month. In second place was Finland with 2,024.8 mt, followed by Canada with 1,773.5 mt. The unwrought nickel imports during the initial four month period of the year totaled 54,393.8 mt.

Meanwhile, the imports of Nickel Matte,Oxde and Sinter during April ’14 totaled 35,342 mt.

The imports of Ferro-Nickel totaled 29,903.9 mt during the month. The largest exporter of Ferro-Nickel to the country was Colombia. The imports from Colombia totaled 9,494.4 mt, accounting for more than one-third of the total imports by the country during the month. In second place was Japan with 7,854.4 mt. The Ferro-Nickel imports during the Jan-Apr period this year totaled 104,765.2 mt.

The imports of Nickel ore and concentrates by China during April ’14 totaled 2.225 Million mt.The imports from Philippines topped the list. The Chinese imports from Philippines totaled 1.835 Million mt during the month.In second place was Indonesia with 298,948 mt. The cumulative Nickel Ore and concentrate imports by China during the initial four months of the year totaled 15.362 Million mt.

Global Nickel market surplus dropped over 50% over the year in March: INSG

According to International Nickel Study Group (INSG), the surplus in global nickel market dropped significantly during the month of March this year. The global nickel market surplus totaled 3,600 tons in March this year. This is 52.6% down when compared with the surplus data during March last year. The global nickel market surplus during March 2013 was 7,600 tons.

The nickel surplus in March dropped when compared with the previous month. The global nickel surplus fell by 25% month-on-month during March. The production of Nickel during the month of February this year exceeded the monthly demand by 4,800 tons.

INSG notes that that the global nickel surplus during the three-month period from January to March this year dropped significantly over the previous year. The surplus narrowed to almost one-third during the initial three-month period of the year. The global surplus of nickel dropped from 38,900 tons during January to March 2013 to 13,400 tons during the corresponding three-month period this year.

The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) - an autonomous, intergovernmental organization established in 1990 and located in Lisbon, Portugal, is responsible for collection and publication of improved and latest statistics on world nickel market.

Protesters burn vehicles, buildings at New Caledonia nickel mine

Rioters torched vehicles, equipment and buildings at Vale's nickel mine in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia over the weekend, as anger boiled over about a chemical spill in a local river.

The $6 billion Vale plant at Goro in southern New Caledonia was closed earlier this month after some 100,000 liters of acid-tainted effluent leaked, killing about 1,000 fish and sparking renewed protests at the mine site.

The Vale plant has a production target of 60,000 tonnes of nickel at full capacity, compared with global supply of around 2 million tonnes. But it has been beset by problems in recent years, including several chemical spills and violent protests.

Tensions between the local population and Vale escalated over the weekend with young protesters frustrated at the latest spill by the Brazilian-based giant and a lack of response from indigenous Kanak chiefs, according to local media. Television footage showed images of burnt mining vehicles and equipment.

"There was damage at the site, but no damage to the plant. We had burned vehicles, one administration building was damaged, but no damage to the plant itself," Vale spokesman Cory McPhee told Reuters.

Peter Poppinga, an executive director at Vale, told Les Nouvelles Caledoniennes newspaper that damage to the mining site was estimated at least $20 million to $30 million, including the destruction of perhaps one third of the truck fleet.

"If there is no activity for several months, we will shut the plant, but that's not the case. The closing of the plant is not on the table," Poppinga was quoted as saying.

The scale of the damage could not immediately be independently verified.

Nickel mining is a key industry in New Caledonia, which holds as much as a quarter of the world's known reserves. Vale's plant is the second-largest employer in the southern province, with some 3,500 employees and contractors, including a large number of Filipino workers.

PLANT HALTED

New Caledonia's southern provincial government ordered an immediate halt to operations after the spill earlier this month and started legal proceedings under its environmental code.

The local government, which changed leadership last week, said it would not lift the production suspension until safety procedures were revised, an oversight committee was reinstated and an independent expert's report was completed.

"We got to this point because, clearly, part of the local youth, particularly from the southern tribes, reject the perspective of maintaining the plant in activity, even with the reinforcement of safety procedures," Philippe Michel, the newly elected president of New Caledonia's Southern Province, told local television on Monday.

Global nickel prices hit a 27-month high earlier this month and are up by about 40 percent this year, driven by a decision by Indonesia to halt exports of raw nickel ores and news of the Goro closure. Indonesia's ban left nickel buyers in China and Japan scrambling to secure supplies amid a fear of shortages.

"Vale's got lots of issues in the country," said Tom Price, a mining analyst at UBS in Sydney. "Nickel has recovered back to the marginal cost of production. It's inviting for them to continue to invest, but it's been a world of pain for them for quite a few years."

Given market expectations of Goro production of just 15,000-20,000 tonnes this year, any impact on nickel prices from the closure would be sentiment driven, Price added. LME nickel prices rose 0.7 percent to $19,745 a tonne on Tuesday.

The Goro mine produced 4,100 tonnes of nickel in the first quarter, up 41 percent on a year ago. Vale is the world's second-biggest nickel producer, but Goro made up just 6 percent of its nickel output in the first quarter.

The mine employs high pressure technology and acids to leach nickel from abundant tropical laterite ores.

"There is an inherent risk in Goro's type of operation," said Gavin Mudd, a professor of environmental engineering at Monash University in Melbourne.

Nickel Drops Most Since Mid-2012 on Adequate Supply

Nickel posted the biggest drop since December 2011 as some investors deemed a surge to a two-year high to be excessive amid signs of sufficient supply.

Nickel inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange have risen 6.6 percent since December, even as a ban on unprocessed-ore exports by Indonesia, the biggest supplier of the mined metal, helped drive prices up 44 percent this year. Nickel’s 14-day relative strength index rose to 91 yesterday, the highest since 2004. Readings above 70 signal to some investors that prices may decline.

“Some of the speculators may have gotten a little too long” in betting on further price gains, Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. “There’s still a lot of material out there. There’s quite a bit of inventory.”

Nickel for delivery in three months dropped 4.6 percent to settle at $20,030 a metric ton at 5:51 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, the biggest decline since Dec. 14, 2011. Prices touched $21,625 yesterday, the highest in 27 months.

Prices may pull back toward the end of May and the beginning of June before rebounding later in the year, Citigroup Inc. said May 9. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its six-month price target to $22,000 from $20,000 after prices rose “more quickly than in our base case,” analysts including Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report dated yesterday.

Copper for delivery in three months advanced 1.1 percent to $6,920 a ton ($3.14 a pound) on the LME. Zinc, tin, lead and aluminum also advanced in London.

In New York, copper futures for July delivery advanced 0.8 percent to $3.16 a pound on the Comex, the highest close since March 6.

Nickel Ore inventories at China's ports enough for five-month consumption

Shanghai Metals Market expects nickel ore inventories at China’s ports to be sufficient for five-month consumption at least.

As of May 9, nickel ore inventories at major five Chinese ports totaled 13.43 million tonnes, down 5.50 million tonnes or 29% from the level before the ban took effect January 12, according to a survey by SMM.

The SMM survey shows Chinese NPI producers need 4 million tonnes of nickel ore for production every month, and monthly imports from the Philippines are around 1.5 million tons, leaving monthly consumption of port inventories around 2.5 million tons.

It is worth noting that production halts have occasionally happened in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia due to environment protection inspections, and this will slow the decline in port inventories.

Prices for high-grade ore, domestic nickel, high-grade NPI and LME nickel have surged by 100%, 56%, 47% and 45%, respectively, from when Indonesia introduced its ban on unprocessed ore exports , according to SMM’s pricing data.

Such strong gains were due mainly to strong market speculation after the Indonesian ban, SMM believes.

The maximum amount of medium and high-grade nickel ore (Ni 1.5% and above) that the Philippines is capable of exporting each year is approximately 20 million tons. In 2013, China consumed over 40 million tons of medium and high-grade nickel ore, far above the current export capacity in the Philippines.

Scientists Find out Rare ‘Nickel Eating’ Plant in Philippines

In Philippines, scientists have discovered a special plant which has the ability to eat nickel metal. The newly founded plant species Rinorea niccolifera, as it name indicates can absorb large quantity of nickel without harming itself. It doesn’t eat nickel like Venus plant eats insects; instead, Rinorea absorbs nickel from the soil, growing in nickel rich soil.

The group of scientists from the University of Philippines discovered this special plant species in Philippines. Professor Edwino Fernando, the lead researcher and author of a new paper on palnt said that it absorbs nickel through its leaf. It can absorb about 18,000 parts per million of nickel. This is up to 1000 times greater than the nickel absorbing capacity of most other plants.

The new nickel eating plant is one of the only 450 species out of 300,000 known vascular plants species which can intake a significant amount of metal. These kinds of metal eating plants have a significant place of interest in mining industry as well as environmental advocates. The new plant species Rinorea niccolifera can make our ecosystem clean as it can be planted to remove hazardous metallic materials from the air, especially near mining factories. 

Another value of the plant is that once it has absorbed a sufficient amount of metal, it can also be used for harvesting to extract commercially valuable contents. Augustine Doronila of the University of Melbourne who co-authored the paper with Fernando explained that the hyper accumulator plants had great potential for the development of green technologies.

Nickel Prices may top $30,000 a metric ton by Citigroup

Nickel, this year’s best-performing metal, is set to rally an additional 43 percent by the end of next year as supply concerns prompt investors to pile in, according to Citigroup Inc.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows nickel’s open interest, or the number of contracts yet to be closed, liquidated or delivered, has surged for five straight months to a record 316,793. Prices rallied 51 percent this year after Indonesia, the largest producer of the metal from mines, banned exports of unprocessed ore in January.

The jump in open interest is “reflecting the extreme nature of change that the nickel market is facing with the Indonesian export ban,” David Wilson, an analyst at Citigroup in London, said in a telephone interview. “It’s the only real story that anybody is interested in, from an investor perspective.”

Prices may top $30,000 a metric ton in 2015, according to Citigroup, which last year correctly predicted that Indonesia would implement the export ban. The last time the commodity traded above that level was in April 2008. Nickel settled at $21,000 a ton yesterday on the London Metal Exchange.

Increasing open interest at a time when prices are rising, can indicate that traders are adding to long positions, or bets on price gains. When prices are declining, the increase in open interest may mean traders are adding to wagers on price declines.

Nickel at two-year high after Vale suspends Goro plant

Mining giant Vale SA (NYSE:VALE) suspended production at its New Caledonia's Goro nickel processing plant and mine due to an effluent spill,Reuters reported on Thursday.

The president of New Caledonia's Southern Province, Cynthia Ligeard, ordered Brazil's Vale, the world's second biggest nickel producer, to halt operations immediately, after an estimated 100,000 litres of effluent ended up in a creek, according to Radio New Zealand International (RNZI).

The provincial government and the environmental authority have sent a joint mission to evaluate the state of the US$6 billion plant.

Vale said in response the spill was due to a misconfiguration of the circuits transferring solution and he water quality of the creek is now back to normal.

The Goro mine had been targeting to produce about 40,000 tonnes of nickel this year, out of a total worldwide production of about two million tonnes.

Earlier this week Glencore Xstrata said output at its Koniambo mine, also in New Caledonia, had been disappointing, and that its 26,000-tonne production forecast for this year was being reviewed.

Nickel prices hit a two-year high in London Metal Exchange on Thursday morning, reaching $19,786, the biggest one-day gain in nearly four years, over supply concerns including Indonesia's ban on nickel early this year. 

According to Bloomberg Deutsche Bank analysts expect nickel to peak at $27,000 a metric ton in 2017.

Despite being one of the best-performing commodities this year, with prices rising over a third since January, nickel doesn't seem to be in the cards for diversified giant Anglo American (LON: AAL).

The miner said Thursday it is mulling the sale of its Brazilian nickel unit to Vale, the South American country’s largest miner, as part of its ongoing efforts to swing back to profit.

CMST Says Consortiums Stockpile Nickel in China

An official from China Material Storage and Transportation Co. (CMST) which runs the country’s largest warehouse for nickel said that consortiums are stockpiling the metal, National Business Daily reported today. 

The unnamed CMST official said at a seminar that stockpiling activities by those consortiums were the major reason behind surging nickel prices , the report said. Daily outbound delivery of nickel from its warehouse hit an all-time high of 12,000 tonnes in March, one fifth of the company’s inventory, the official said. 

Nickel prices are expected to continue consolidating at the current 120,000-130,000 yuan ($19,485-21,108) per tonne level, and may hit 180,000 yuan per tonne once breaking the upper band, he added.  

Nickel price rise: too much too soon says new report.

Indonesia surprised the mining world in January putting into effect an outright ban on nickel ore exports.

After a relatively subdued initial reaction on nickel markets – no-one thought the Asian nation would go through with the ban and when it did, the expectation was that the rules would be water down substantially – the price of the steelmaking raw material is now up 32% in 2014.

Indonesia accounted for around a fifth of global supply at an estimated 400,000 tonnes of contained metal so the potential was there for a big impact on the price.

But record inventories around the globe (hitting 285,000 tonnes in March), massive stockpiling by China's nickel pig iron producers ahead of the ban, and years of growing mine supply (11% per year since 2009 to 2 million tonnes), kept the price near financial crisis levels by the end of January.

Traders only really entered panic mode when supply from the world's largest producer Norilsk was also put in danger

Traders only really entered panic mode when supply from the world's largest producer Norilsk was also put in danger due to the possibility of sanctions against the Russian company over the crisis in Ukraine.

Three-month nickel on the LME was trading at $18,300 a tonne on Monday after gaining 15% in April making it the best-performing commodity. The nickel price is up from around $14,000 at the start of the year.

The Financial Times (paywall) quotes Jim Lennon, commodities consultant at investment bank Macquarie as saying "every hedge fund manager and his dog is long on nickel," adding that he expects prices to rise as high as $30,000 a tonne in 2016 if the ban remains.

Others are less sanguine about the outlook for the price, at least for this year.

Independent macro-economic research house, Capital Economics, in a new report on Monday warns that the price move "is looking premature at best and, at worst, overdone":

"The market will remain in surplus and other producers may raise output in response to the recent price strength. So far, and despite Indonesia’s export ban, stocks have only just started to slip, suggesting the market is not as tight as the price rise suggests. Indeed, the high level of open interest [in LME nickel] makes the market look vulnerable to a price correction."

Capital Economics believe the nickel price will fall back from current levels to $17,500 per tonne at the end of the year, but will rise to $19,000 at end-2015 when "the full impact of Indonesia’s export ban will be felt once stocks have been drawn down."