Will Aluminium continue its rising trend?

The aluminum market is now in the spot light, with both LME and SHFE aluminum surging recently. The question is will the rising trend continue?

On July 22, Shanghai Metals Market publishes an article analyzing the reason behind the gain. In recent two days, the light metal saw the rising momentum easing with profit-taking at highs, but positions remain, leaving further price increases possible.

On July 24, SHFE three-month aluminum prices are expected to test support at 14,000 yuan per tonne, with prices moving between 14,030-14,130 yuan per tonne, SMM foresees. In China’s physical market, price declines will be limited as SHFE current-month aluminum prices stay firm, with spot discounts expected between 60-20 yuan per tonne.

The followings are aluminum price estimates by major market participants.

HSBC's view on Aluminum
HSBC expects 2014’s average aluminum price at $1,875 per tonne, and raises the 2015’s average to $2,065 per tonne.

Sucden's view on Aluminum
Sucden estimates aluminum price to hit $2,050 per tonne in 3Q.

Norsk Hydro's view on Aluminum
Aluminum prices are expected to rise, Norsk Hydro foresees, adding global aluminum demand will increase by 2-4% outside China.

CNIA's view on Aluminum
Production in Chinese aluminum smelting industry will remain low, while conditions in the aluminum fabrication sector are expected to outperform that in aluminum smelters during the rest of the year, China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) predicts.