Sunday, July 13, 2014

A Significant Decline is Coming to The Stock Market

Last week we wrote that a trend turn is coming to stocks. Stocks immediately declined sharply. However, we believe there is a much larger decline coming and that it could start soon. Didn't it already start this past week? Maybe, maybe not. This past week's decline has several "corrective" characteristics that suggest it is not the big decline we expect to start. There could be more upside before that large sell-off begins. What we can ascertain this weekend is that a significant decline is not far away. If it started last week, a much deeper decline is on its way. If it did not start last week, it could start very soon. Here is some of the evidence why we believe a significant decline should be underway within a few weeks:
S&P500 versus Demand Power and Supply
Above we see that there is a Bearish Divergence between the S&P 500 and Demand Power. The Divergence is maturing, suggesting a top is close at hand and a significant decline should begin soon.
NASDAQ100 versus Demand Power and Supply
Above we see that there is a Bearish Divergence between the NASDAQ 100 and its Demand Power Measure. The Divergence s maturing, suggesting a top is close at hand and a significant decline should begin soon.
NYSE 10-Day Moving Average Advance/Decline Line versus S&P500
Above we see that there is a Bearish Divergence between the S&P 500 and the NYSE 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator. The Divergence is maturing, suggesting a top is close at hand and a significant decline should begin soon.
NASDAQ100 10-Day Moving Average versus Advance/Decline Line versus NASDAQ100
RUT 10-Day Moving Average Advance/Decline Line versus Ressell 2000
Above, we see similar Bearish Divergences with their 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicators and prices for the small cap Russell 2000 and also the NASDAQ 100. These divergences are maturing, suggesting a top in stocks should arrive over the next two weeks, with the start of a strong decline.

Robert McHugh

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